Poor Pass Pro + “Just Misses” = Another Ugly Ravens-Browns Game

Ravens Pass-Catchers Through Week 7

At least I didn’t have to watch it live!

I was at the Jersey Shore with my cousin’s family for the weekend. Sunday I tried to get streaming to work, but failed over four separate services, so instead said forget it and spent the time with my family. A wise choice. I finally watched this game Monday night. It’s interesting coming to the game when you already know the result, and have heard the firestorm of “Fire Greg Roman!” criticism on Twitter. I was able to get a little distance and watch it  dispassionately.

Honestly, I thought the offensive play-calling was pretty sound and capable.

They’ve got two games in five days, and many of their key players are either old (Calais Campbell, Justin Houston, Jason Pierre-Paul), coming off injury (Rashod Bateman, Ronnie Stanley, Gus Edwards, Marcus Peters, Houston) or both.  They had an opponent with dangerous pass rushers (Myles Garrett & Jadeveon Clowney) and a couple good second-level defenders (JOK, Greedy, Delpit) but not a good run defense. So keep the snap counts low, rotate the guys, run the football, shorten the game. What is more sensible than that?

I bet that’s just what Harbs & Roman talked about in their meetings last week. You could see it from the Ravens’ first offensive snaps of the game. They opened with three Gus Edwards runs, then one from Kenyan Drake, and gained 23 yards on four plays (5.75 yards-per-carry). And then from the Ravens’ second possession it was evident that running the ball was a good idea. On consecutive plays Clowney dragged Lamar Jackson down by the horsecollar after a pass attempt (no flag!), and then Garrett sacked him. Lamar also got hit on his next attempt.

On the day the Browns sacked Lamar three times, which on 16 attempts is a 19% sack rate. That’s bad. For reference, the worst two sack rates among starters in the league belong to Justin Fields and Marcus Mariota : 17% and 10%.  Lamar’s day was worse. The only game this season where Lamar was sacked more was vs New England, and that was on 13 more drop-backs. The Browns pressured Lamar seven times, hurried him three times, hit him once. In terms of pass-pro, it was the Ravens worst game by “pressure percentage” this season (33%).

When the Ravens protected Lamar (and didn’t fumble), they scored:

How do you win a game when you complete only nine passes, the opponent gains six yards-per-play versus your four yards-per-play, and you’re playing from behind for the whole first-half? Well: you run the hell out of the ball (44 rush attempts) and you are efficient in your situational football. The Ravens converted on 7-of-15 of their 3rd-down attempts, which is 47% (the league average is 39%), and both of their 4th-downs; meanwhile they held the Browns to 2-of-11 (18%) on 3rd-down conversions and sacked the Brownies QB five times.

The Ravens came within a trice of having another TD. The pass that got batted up in the air at the start of the 4th quarter, would have gone to Duvernay for a possible TD:

The Ravens take advantage of Cleveland’s rules in coverage which leads to a wide open Devin Duvernay 20+ yards downfield.

Ronnie Stanley gets walked back a bit and 58 is able to bat the pass instead of Jackson hitting Duvernay for an explosive gain and maybe touchdown. pic.twitter.com/agHn1iVwAw

— Spencer N. Schultz (@ravens4dummies) October 24, 2022

Lamar’s 4th-down run on the trick play snap to Mark Andrews could easily have broken for a TD:

If Duv or whoever that is gets a piece of 54 this a house call. pic.twitter.com/a9jYz9VmGG

— Ivan Evans (@CoachEvans9) October 25, 2022

Those were on the same drive; Tucker eventually nailed a 55-yd Field Goal, so if either of those had hit it would have meant only four additional points. But imagine how much more comfortable you would have been in the 4th quarter with four more points on the board. By the way, Ravens.com has the highlight of the FG, which is worth re-watching just for Tucker’s post-kick “who, me?” celebration:

Has there ever been an enjoyable game against the Browns? I used to joke on the RSR forums that games against the Browns were like a trip to the dentist. Their fanbase is always hype to beat Baltimore, which probably effects their players a little. Most directly, on the field, the Browns always seem to have either a very good O-line or an excellent Running Back. In the days of Joe Thomas they had one of the league’s best Left Tackles. Now they have Nick Chubb, one of the best backs in the league. (In 2020 they had both a good OL and Chubb, and made the playoffs with 11 wins.)  That means they can always hang tough.

More than a third – 13 out of 35 – of the Ravens franchise wins over the Browns have been by a touchdown or less.  More if you count the Ravens eight-point win in Sept of 2013. Even when the Browns have been bad and the Ravens have been good, the games have been slogs.

The 2006 Ravens finished 13-3 and earned the #2 seed in the AFC playoffs. Great team. The played the Browns on Sept 24, and won 15-14. One TD from Steve McNair to Todd Heap, a missed XP, and three Matt Stover FGs.

Two of the best squads in team history were in 2011 and 2012. The 2011 Ravens advanced to the Conference Championship Game, and the 2012 Ravens won the Super Bowl. Both teams survived one-score games against the Browns: the 2011 team won 33-27 on Christmas Eve, and the 2012 team won 23-16 on Sept 27.

The 2014 Ravens finished 10-6 and advanced to the Divisional round of the playoffs, where they had an epic showdown with the Pats. They played the 7-9 Browns on Sept 21 and won by 2 pts, 23-21. The Browns went up at the end of the 3rd quarter and were still up when Justin Tucker lined up to attempt the game winner with time expiring.

The 2018 Ravens won the division at 10-6 in Lamar’s rookie season. They played the Browns (7-8-1) on the last day of the season and won by two when C.J. Mosley clinched the game with an INT off Baker Mayfield with a minute to play.

Good Ravens teams have lost to bad Browns teams. The 2019 Ravens finished 14-2 and earned the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs. They played the Browns (finished 6-10) on Sept 29 and LOST, 40-25. Chubb ran wild, 165 yards and three TDs. Did you like that result better than Sunday’s? I sure didn’t.

The 2001 Ravens were a good team, finishing 10-6 and winning a playoff game. They lost TWICE to a Browns team that finished 7-9, by scores of 24-14 and 27-17. Tim Couch, Phil Dawson, and Elvis Grbac did the honors.

Anyone remember the doink game?  That was November 18, 2007. Dawson’s attempt at a game-tying FG doinked off the support post as time expired, and bounced back into the field of play. My buddy and I were at that game! We left when the FG was pronounced no good. We were crossing the street when a guy rolled down his window to tell us the game was still going! We were like, what? By the time we got to our car the outcome was reversed, from win to loss.  That 2007 Ravens team was not good, finishing 5-11 and getting Brian Billick fired: but THAT game should have been won. Josh Cribbs was unstoppable that day, with 300 combined return yards (kick and punt).

The 2004 Ravens were a decent team, finishing 9-7 and just out of the playoffs (a game out of the wild card). They opened the season against a bad Browns team that would finish 4-12. The Browns BLASTED the Ravens, 20-3, for the worst loss vs Cleveland in team history. Kyle Boller vs Jeff Garcia.

Do you expect a PRETTY and satisfying game against the Browns?? The only aesthetically pleasing Browns-Ravens game was the one on Monday Night Football in December of 2020. That was the game where Lamar ran to the locker room – he said he wasn’t doing a Paul Pierce – then Trace McSorley got knocked out of the game and Lamar came back in, like Willis Reed. The Ravens won that 47-42, by far the highest-scoring Ravens-Browns game. That was an “instant classic”, aired on national TV and discussed for the next several days. But really it was just another scuffling, one-score Ravens-Browns game.

Seems like they all are.

The last time Mark Andrews was held without a catch was his rookie season, 2018. It was the December game in Arrowhead against the Chiefs. How did the Brownies do it this time? Well, they have the Joker, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who is a LB with outstanding coverage skills. They have a good safety in Grant Delpit. They dropped a ton of guys into zone: several times the Ravens kept in six guys to block and the Browns only rushed four, leaving the Ravens with three pass-catchers going against seven zone defenders.

And they gave up a ton of rushing yards and lost the game. Their plan to stop Andrews “worked”, and the Ravens had enough weapons to win anyway.

Nice to see Duvernay & Bateman back on the productive side of the ledger. The one incomplete to Bateman went through his hands for a drop.  Bateman might have the dropsies this season:

Per PFF

1. R. Bateman: 5 (27 tgts, 15 rec)
1. B. Cooks: 5 (45 tgts, 28 rec)
1. J. Waddle: 5 (52 tgts, 34 rec)
4. J. Jeudy: 4 (46 tgts, 24 rec)
4. D. Samuel: 4 (51 tgts, 31 rec)

— Kyle Phoenix Barber (@KylePBarber) October 25, 2022

I’m reluctant to make a call on it since he’s missed a couple games with injury and Sunday was his first game back from.  But Bateman just played his 17th career game, so “rookie season jitters” have to be over.

Oliver very nearly had five yards with a TD on his one target; he couldn’t quite control it, with a defender on his back contesting. For that matter, that passing TD very nearly went to Bateman on the next play. That was the drive where Gus punched it on 4th-down.

Bateman is back on the PFR yards-per-target leaderboard, clocking in at #10, just ahead of Justin Jefferson.

Duvernay has fallen to 17th on that stat (tied with Stefon Diggs), but he’s 4th in the league in DVOA.

Andrews has fallen about a hundred yards off Travis Kelce’s pace for the league-lead in receiving yardage for Tight Ends. We’re not even at the halfway mark of the season: that story is not over yet. I still got ‘em both going to the Pro Bowl.

Despite some quiet games, Lamar is still 4th in the league in TD passes, 3rd in TD% and 5th in QBR.

So where does this team stand?

According to the Football Outsiders Playoff Odds, the Ravens are 81% likely to make the playoffs, 61% as the division winner. In about 48% of scenarios they take the #3 or #2 seed in the conference. The past schedule they’ve played so far is rated the 3rd-hardest in the league, but their future schedule is the 27th-hardest. By contrast, the Bengals future schedule is rated 4th-hardest. The Ravens are in a pretty good position. Just need to play well and keep stacking wins.

Next Up: Thursday Night Football with the reeling Tompa B[r]a[d]y Buccaneers!