OTL: Mock Draft SZN – Any LJ Trades in the Cards?

Happy Monday, Flock Nation! Last night, I had the opportunity to put on my GM hat and represent the Ravens in the 2023 Walk the Mock Draftnik Mock Draft.

So the final results were
1.23: Jaxon Smith-Nijgba, WR, Ohio State
3:23: DJ Turner, CB, Michigan

JSN is an absolute stud. Might even be my WR1 by the time the draft rolls around.
DJ Turner strikes me as a high-floor CB2, especially reuniting with Macdonald.

— Nikhil Mehta (@nmehtaUR2022) February 27, 2023

It ended up being a fairly stock draft, as I went wide receiver in the first round and cornerback in the third, with no Lamar Jackson blockbuster to augment my draft capital.

That did make me think, though, how fun it would be to get a Deshaun Watson– or Russell Wilson-sized return for Lamar. So after seeing Nikki Bozeman – wife of ex-Ravens and current Panthers OL Bradley Bozeman – recruiting Lamar on Twitter, I wondered what kind of return Baltimore could get by sending Jackson to Carolina.

@Lj_era8 will always be one of our favorites! One of the best guys you will meet in this league! Also your nephew says hi!! 🫶🏼 pic.twitter.com/KihASxSpRp

— Nikki Bozeman (@1NikkiAnn3) February 26, 2023

The Ravens rarely have a shot at a top-10 pick, so they may want the Panthers’ 9th overall selection, plus first-rounders in 2024 and 2025 and other picks. That may be Lamar’s value on the trade market, but it doesn’t seem like the Ravens have gotten any similar offers from any team that blew them away enough to jettison their QB1.

Given Jackson’s contract demands, the Panthers may balk at giving up that much draft capital, as opposed to a player like EDGE Brian Burns, who himself could be about to receive a near-record-setting contract. But since Carolina turned down two firsts for Burns at the trade deadline, they may not be willing to move him at all.

Baltimore could then turn their attention towards cornerback C.J. Henderson, a former first-round pick who has yet to live up to that billing in the NFL. He probably wouldn’t reduce the draft capital return as much as Burns would – and would require an extension – but he’d fill the Ravens’ need for a CB2.

If the Ravens do trade Jackson – something I view as unlikely at this point – they should take a much bigger swing to upgrade at CB2, targeting a player they have long coveted.

The #Rams have had trade talks about six-time Pro Bowl CB Jalen Ramsey and league sources now believe it’s very likely Ramsey is dealt in coming weeks.

Ramsey, 28, is due $17 million in 2023 on a front-loaded deal that averages $20M and L.A. is clearing cap space. pic.twitter.com/vTYlX7nn5B

— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) February 25, 2023

Jalen Ramsey’s cap hits of $17M, $18.5M and $19.5M over the next three years are excellent value for one of the best cornerbacks in the game. The Ravens could double down on defense by creating the best secondary in the NFL and give teams like the Bengals absolute fits trying to move the ball through the air. They’d need to spend the rest of their remaining cap space and draft capital revamping the offense, but seeing Ramsay, Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Williams, Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton on the same defense would be scary.

Ultimately, though, I don’t think trading Lamar for a boatload of assets is in the cards. It looks like we’re headed for a year on the franchise tag, and the Ravens will still need an addition of some sort at cornerback.

The wisest path might be re-signing Marcus Peters, who improved as the 2022 season went on and his injury was further in the rearview, ending the season with a great showing against the Bengals in the playoffs.

Bleacher Report’s Alex Ballentine on Ravens CB Marcus Peters:

“Don’t count out Peters from having a bounce back year in 2023. The team that bets on him to turn things around could get an elite corner at a discount price.” pic.twitter.com/AtnrDPVOf4

— Ravens Nation LIVE (@LIVERavenNation) February 26, 2023

A team-friendly deal could look something like this: 3 years, $21 million total, $10 million fully guaranteed, with a $9M signing bonus and a fully guaranteed veteran minimum Year 1 salary. Cap hits of $4M, $7M, and $10M would defer enough money to the future to keep Peters for two years and then cut him in 2025 to save $7M against the cap.

The Ravens could also use a void year or two, giving Peters an $8M signing bonus and spreading it across four seasons to minimize his first year cap hit with Jackson on the franchise tag. Baltimore is loath to use void years, but using it for one key player with only $2-4 million as potential future dead cap hits wouldn’t tank the team’s future financial flexibility.

But even as I’m contemplating spending all of this capital on CB, I can’t help but go back to this:

most expensive offenses last 4 years:

1. IND – $409M
2. DAL – $407M
3. GB – $404M
4. TB – $400M
5. CLE – $393M
6. LV – $387M
7. TEN -$385M
8. LAC – $378M
9. WAS – $363M
10. SF – $357M

bottom-5:

28. CAR – $293M
29. MIA – $279M
30. PIT – $275M
31. DEN – $265M
32. BAL – $273M

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) February 26, 2023

The Ravens have been dead-last in offensive spending in the last four years, playing into the narrative that they haven’t done enough to support Jackson.

They’ve spent on the OL to protect him, but their lack of WR investment is going to be what we remember about Lamar’s rookie contract championship window.

Baltimore has wanted to take the draft route, using six picks on wideouts, including two firsts and two thirds. I don’t fault them for the strategy, but it’s time to acknowledge that their scouting and development haven’t been good enough to support it.

Now, with their flexibility severely limited by Jackson’s likely franchise tag, what do they do? A trade (or unlikely extension) could open things up for a Mike Evans or DeAndre Hopkins blockbuster, but otherwise, the Ravens need to look to the reigning champs for answers.

It’s time to think like the Chiefs by rounding out the WR room with depth and multiplicity, having four or five talented guys who can all play several different roles.

Third-year receivers Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace are virtual locks to return, but I’m not sure about Devin Duvernay staying on his current cap hit. Bring me Ohio State’s JSN, a vet like OBJ and a high-upside project like Parris Campbell and I’m feeling a lot better about this room, especially with Todd Monken pulling the strings.

A few last items relating to the Ravens from this weekend…

First is safeties coach D’Anton Lynn leaving Baltimore to take UCLA’s defensive coordinator job. He’s 33, experienced and talented, so he probably just needs a year or two of seasoning in college before coming back for a DC job in the NFL.

Ravens fans will be clamoring for Ed Reed to replace Lynn in Baltimore, but I don’t see that happening.

And finally, Jamison Hensley set the record straight on Monken’s hiring, making it clear that Lamar was consulted and included in the OC search process. But it’s not clear that Jackson was especially responsive with his input, and as Eric DeCosta has said about the contract negotiations, it takes two to tango. It takes a duo to dance, a pair to prance, a couple to…congo?

You get the idea.