Guest Post submitted by Tanner George
The Baltimore Ravens are a pretty darn smart organization. Heavily favoring analytics, the front office doesn’t let anything, emotion or otherwise, get ahead of an objective statistical analysis of a given player. Statistics and film are the ultimate tools—no way around it.
By placing the non-exclusive tag on Lamar Jackson, the team is able to do more than save a few bucks on the cap this year. Indeed, the team has seemingly drastically lowered LJ’s valuation by letting him test the open market. And, just as the Ravens calculated, his field of expected suitors sure has dried up. At least according to insider reports, it seems as if nobody is interested in the 2019 MVP. Just look at the teams that have declared themselves out. Atlanta. Carolina. Washington. Miami. It’s not as if these franchises, aside from the Dolphins, have anyone truly relevant under center. If the 2023-24 season started today, they would be rolling out Desmond Ridder, Matt Corral, Sam Howell, and Tua Tagovailoa, respectively. Aside from Tua, these guys make up the bottom third of the league in terms of QB talent; not too impressive.
Yet, still no one has jumped at the opportunity to send an offer sheet Jackson’s way. Could this deserted market keep Lamar in the Charm City, and on a team-friendly contract, at that?
That’s certainly not outside the realm of possibility. In fact, I have a feeling that’s exactly what will happen… and that we’ll be just fine.
Impact of Investment
Truly, it is my firm belief that there is only one reason behind the lack of interest in #8: investment. This standoff between Jackson and the rest of the league is simply not about him. Rather, it’s teams wising up to roster construction in today’s NFL… and that they may need to throw out their entire roster just to optimize the employ of his skills. Jackson is elite at very specific things: quick reads, short-game throws, and run options. That’s what set him apart from the rest of the league in 2019. However, to implement this style of offense, a team needs the following:
- 2 good power backs
- At least 2 mobile but blocking-centered tight ends
- Think of a Mark Andrews-type player
- An elite and physically imposing offensive line
- A speedy deep threat at receiver and at least 2 other big-bodied pass-catchers
- An offensive coordinator willing to play the possession game
This is certainly quite a list, and very little of it is easy to come by. Factor in a huge contract with significant guarantees, especially this agreement’s impact on the salary cap, and the loss of critical draft capital (two first round picks), and you’ve reset the entire course of your franchise. By taking on a player like Jackson, who does come with these needs, you’re well behind the 8-ball (no pun intended) in terms of roster construction.
Take another look at the teams that were pegged as suitors by insiders but instead backed out. Now look at their rosters. Who do they have to complement Lamar? At most, they could check one or two of these boxes. To obtain the rest, they would need to turn to the draft or free agency… with a limited talent pool available due to the resources they sacrificed to acquire LJ. As he’s expected to get a 5-year deal, anyone who acquires the QB will be well into Year 3 until their investment comes to fruition. In a win now, pay later league, this certainly isn’t overly enticing.
Too, the teams that could afford Jackson will most likely not be looked favorably upon by him. Naturally, clubs with the most salary cap space often are the ones with the lowest win percentages. Aside from financials, there is absolutely no reason to accept an offer from such a team—a deal that would also impede the club’s ability to add more talent. If his expressed desires for a Super Bowl ring are truly as strong as he’s suggested, Jackson would need to take less money from a winning franchise.
In murky waters, Jackson sure has limited options…
A Needed Realization
Most have forgotten this, but Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens are truly a match made in heaven. No other team in the league today has invested so much in a scheme revolving around one singular player. Yes, there have been shortcomings (namely at wide receiver, with all due respect to Rashod Bateman), but it’s not as if the team hasn’t made an effort to maximize his potential. Last year, the Ravens had a top-3 offensive line, invested two draft picks in big-bodied tight ends (Likely and Kolar), and saw the resurgence of J.K. Dobbins after his return from injury. Too, the team has locked up Mark Andrews and Ronnie Stanley, both All-Pro level talents when healthy, for years to come. And of course there’s the potential for a new receiver via free agency or trade coupled with another to complement Bateman via the draft.
That’s an awful lot of effort centered around one player. Lamar is in an envious position having an organization so committed to amplifying his production.
Adam Schefter on a September report about guarantees in Ravens contract that Lamar Jackson reportedly turned down
– $133 million due at signing
– $175 million with injuries
– $200 million springing guarantee if on roster on 5th day of 2026 league year
pic.twitter.com/NCW33LASgx— Kevin Oestreicher (@koestreicher34) March 13, 2023
Eventually he’ll come to that realization. Eventually he’ll realize that the Ravens have limited options, too. Eventually he’ll understand that he may need to take the $200M in total guarantees that the team offered him, per Adam Schefter. Eventually, he’ll see that his value only decreases with each team filling their holes at quarterback. It might not be today, it might not be tomorrow… but it’s inevitable.
Lamar’s a smart guy. The Ravens are a smart team.
Something tells me we’ll be just fine.
5 Responses
I am amused. You mention these 5 things other teams would have to have in order to be all in on Lamar. The Ravens have had him for 5 years and which of these 5 did they provide Lamar with? While they may have provided him with 1 or 2 of these 5 in a given year, it all ends up in failure. In spite of not providing all of these 5 items the Ravens were winning 3/4 of the games Lamar was in. Imagine a team realizing the potential there if they provided him with 4 or 5 of these items? Look at all the young QBs that came in after Lamar-Burrow, Herbert, Hurts, Tua, Fields, etc. They have all been provided with many of these items. WHY? Because 1 player does not make a team and the management of these organizations realized that. If the Ravens had taken a different philosophy when the league was changing rules and policies maybe they would have been more successful as a team. Under Harbaugh this team has always been defense and run first offense. Look at how much money is spent on defense vs offense. How much change has there been in the offense since Harbaugh has been here? Always run first and WRs utilized as blockers, not receivers.
Needed realization? Hmmm I won’t run on with this. First we can agree that Lamar has made a major mistake without good representation. Second the Ravens organization is not perfect and makes mistakes. Third other teams don’t always tell the truth. Fourth to many of us express our views as if they are the gospel. The realization is that more than likely this will not end soon and no one truly knows what is going on and how it will end. only time will tell!
That’s a point the author was trying to make….that providing Lamar ALL 5 of those “prerequisites for success” in 1 given year, all at once is an onerous task outside the reach of most if not all NFL teams given the cap restraints.
Does Mahomes have all 5 now?
No he doesn’t.
Has Mahomes EVER had all 5 at the same time ?
Again, no he hasn’t .
Unless the Ravens hit big with their draft picks, I’m not sure they (or any team) will ever be able to give LJ8 all 5 at once. He must find a way to get it done (Win a SB) lacking some of those 5 prerequisites
I agree. It sounds good to say you built your offense around Lamar. But the Ravens made multiple major personnel mistakes, including: 1) keeping the OC around at least a year too long 2) failing at tackle in 2021 3) failing at WR in 2022. Because of these failures you couldn’t properly evaluate Lamar. Did he not develop his passing game because of the weaknesses of the line and WR or was it on him?
What potential do you speak of? The guy promised a superbowl and where is that. It’s easy for him and you to blame everybody else but everybody else ain’t promising superbowls on draft night either.
Great article! Well balanced. I personally hope they trade him for a big Mac and a coke. I’ve said repeatedly over the years this guy is NOT a drop back pocket passer and will require investment of resources. The problem is that he believes he is so important that he doesn’t need help to win and he actually does. If Marcus Peters had not of saved him he would not have a single playoff win to his name. This guy is not so important we can’t live without him. I firmly believe we could draft Malik Cunningham in the 5th or 6th rounder and plug him in and not miss a beat.