An old friend of mine who was known for his persistence with women in the bar scene back in the day, had this credo that steered his “game” when his power of persuasion was off the mark.
“She’s a 2 at 10 (PM) but a 10 at 2 (AM).”
The message is pretty clear. And if applied to the Ravens and Lamar Jackson, the Ravens are the “2” while Lamar continues to troll the market.
The problem is, there might not be a market.
Now, many of the national pundits will have you believe that Lamar’s skillset is incomparable. He’s a unicorn — a 26 year-old former MVP still in the prime of his career. Who wouldn’t want his immense tools guiding your team?
If it was only that simple.
Lamar isn’t Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow or even Justin Herbert, all of whom could be plug and play options for any NFL team. Lamar’s talents are unique and they require an offense designed to put his uncommon tools in situations to succeed. In other words, the offense has to be tailored to him. That requires the right offensive coordinator and the accompanying complementary talent surrounding him in order to be fully efficient. That takes time and investment.
Then of course there’s the money that it will take to land Lamar. It has been said that the Ravens have offered Lamar a deal that is second only to that of Deshaun Watson. If true, that’s a really good deal for a quarterback who has regressed as a passer AND as a runner. His passer rating over the past four seasons beginning with his MVP campaign of 2019 is as follows:
2019: 113.3
2020: 99.3
2021: 87.0
2022: 91.1
As a rusher Lamar’s numbers have also steadily declined. Again beginning in 2019, his rushing yards per game are trending downward:
2019: 80.4
2020: 67.0
2021: 63.9
2022: 63.7
Now, the argument could be made and has been made, that Lamar didn’t work under the guidance of an offensive coordinator known for in-game adjustments or one known to develop passing schemes that were even in the same area code as competent. One could also fairly argue that Lamar has never had the best array of receiving talent at his disposal to accurately assess his trajectory as a passer. That’s a critical organizational error. John Harbaugh should have seen to it that Greg Roman was excused of his duties a year or more ago while GM Eric DeCosta could have used the team’s cap resources to find a receiver like the Eagles found in A.J. Brown when they traded for the former Titan last offseason to provide a lift in the passing acumen of Jalen Hurts. Instead, DeCosta invested in Marcus Williams, a solid player but hardly the potential difference maker that Brown has been for the Eagles.
So we’re all left wondering if Lamar has what it takes to be an elite passer, commensurate with his salary demands. We wonder when the “used by date” will expire on this running quarterback if said passing skills have peaked. We wonder if he’s worth the money.
And apparently so do other teams.
Lamar Jackson misses a wide open TD to Tylan Wallace #RavensFlock pic.twitter.com/L6S9cdtgfx
— Pro Football Culture (@proftblculture) October 10, 2022
Despite the fact that the Ravens used the non-exclusive franchise tag to control Lamar’s future, a tag that invites offers from other teams, no one has come knocking. No other team seems outwardly interested. Teams like the Falcons, Panthers, Dolphins, Saints and Bucs – all teams that were thought to be potential destinations for Lamar, have made other plans at the position of quarterback. The simple excuse, and the one NFLPA Executive Director DeMaurice Smith throws around like Pacman Jones tosses dollars around at a strip club, is collusion. The reason other teams aren’t ponying up the money is due to Smith’s delusional belief that the other owners have conspired against Lamar and guaranteed contracts.
Let’s forget about the offense required for Lamar to succeed. Let’s forget about his inconsistencies and the downward trajectory of his career. Let’s forget about the questions that remain regarding his future abilities as a passer in the league. Let’s forget about his absences due to injury each of the past two Decembers and Januarys. Let’s forget about the other three franchises that invested heavily in players like Watson and Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson only to experience extreme buyer’s remorse. Let’s forget about the two first-round picks that teams must relinquish to sign Lamar. Let’s forget it all, cop out, and then reach for a convenient excuse called collusion.
And there’s more uncertainty.
There have been whispers about the extent of Lamar’s injury during the 2022 season. Teammates were said to be frustrated by his absence stemming from an “injury” that seemed to be a calculated ploy tied to his contractual woes. Teammate Sammy Watkins openly expressed his frustrations about it to Adam Kilgore of The Washington Post.
“In this league, everybody is pretty much banged up, hurt. I don’t want to speak for him and his situation and whatever he’s going through with the contracts. I don’t know what world he’s in. But for me, you got a chance to do something special. We all know with Lamar Jackson out there, this team is really freaking good, and special things can happen. He can will this team to a Super Bowl. I don’t think he’s thinking about it that way. . . .”
Then there are the missed practices; rumors about poor film study habits; other rumors about questionable diet and sleeping habits. If you’ve heard it all, doesn’t it stand to reason that NFL execs around the league have heard these things and more? Add it all up and is anyone really surprised that the market for Lamar is about as active as the traders for Blockbuster on the New York Stock Exchange floor?
And we haven’t even gotten to the financial commitment and stress on the salary cap that a team interested in Jackson’s services would have to absorb.
The best place for Lamar is Baltimore. It’s that simple. A better coordinator is in place. A commitment to a better wide receiver room has been pledged. Only Lamar isn’t hearing it and now there are reports that his advisors have let it be known that he wants out of Charm City.
How and when this ends is anyone’s guess.
But one thing is clear. For Lamar and his handlers, 2 o’clock is apparently a ways away.
57 Responses
Well said Tony. Thanks. I still am trying to give Lamar the benefit of the doubt – that it is his right to wait now, see if interest develops after the draft. I think a few teams might have an interest but they want Lamar to sweat it a bit. But it gets harder and harder to see this ending well. If these latest reports are correct and he wants out, is pissed, it will never work to do a deal even if he’s willing. Is it conceivable do you think that the Ravens would rescind the tag and just walk away with nothing – but at least $35 million to build a team for 2023??
I think the Ravens really want to keep Lamar and consequently, I don’t see them rescinding their offer.
Do you see Lamar showing up for OTAs and training camp, because barring a sea change in him, I can’t imagine him doing so. He appears to feel wronged, and I don’t think he’s mature enough to realize that instead he is simply wrong.
Lamar’s market value has obviously plummeted. To skip OTA’s and training camp as the franchise QB when there’s a new OC in town, doesn’t bode well for a successful season or his perception in league circles. So I don’t think that he’ll skip all of the OTA’s and training camp. But that’s logic applied to a conventional player. Lamar marches to the beat of his own drummer so your guess is as good as mine as it relates to if and when he will report. Heads or tails?
Another great one Toni. I’d point out that when you franchise LJ then don’t get the things you need in FA to advance this team because you’re waiting on LJ to sign first, you’re now stuck with the fact that even if he does come back you don’t have the FA pieces to make the team any better. If he doesn’t come back now you’re out a QB and you missed out on FA. So either way I think it was dumb to wait on LJ.
It’s funny to me how LJ makes a contract demand and when nobody agrees he’s worth all that then instead of accepting that, they all claim its collusion. They all signed off on the CBA, remember? Now loud mouth Stephen A claims its “built in collusion” like he’s the authority on anything.
I never saw the appeal of keeping LJ. Because we traded a 1st and a 2nd to get him and we would get 2 1sts in any trade, that’s a decent return when you consider the 5 seasons we got out of him in the middle. Oh well, let’s get ready for LJs next meltdown. He’s on his way to being the next Vince Young.
And it’s funny when I guy is simply trying to get what he thinks he’s worth a bunch of fans call him greedy and accuse him of not caring about the team. Works both ways.
133 fully guaranteed for 3 years. in 2024 ,175 mill fully guaranteed and 2025 200 mill fully guaranteed.
Hes a dumb ass not taking this. It would be very hard ,actually impossible to release him in 2024 due to cap issues
He should take it. I think as Tony and others have said-I think DeMaurice has his mom’s ear and while I’m definitely pro player in these disputes, I think the NFLPA is sacrificing Lamar for their larger issues and he and his mom are just too distrustful to get outside advice away from them.
Whoa Tony! I love your writing. This veers dangerously close to a hit piece. You simultaneously say he’s regressing while acknowledging that you probably don’t know given the lack of weapons. I would immediately point out two things
1) that Lamar requires a specific offense suited to him for him to be effective. This “conventional wisdom” has never been put to the rest has it? No. It’s just a belief. And Bobby Petrino’s offense is considered pro style. But people are just running with this belief as if it’s fact. At best-it’s an open question.
2) as you alluded to-the weapons. I would simply point out, that when his number 1 receiver was last healthy, LJ was the AFC player of the month, and arguably the best player in the league at the time-excluding No one.
That hardly seems like a regression.
Lamar starts hot every season. In 2019, he stayed hot. He’s regressed each year since then. If anything, Tony is trying to play Devil’s Advocate as to other possible reasons for a regression. What I will say is Lamar missed a lot of open guys the past couple years. Roman, for all his faults, would scheme a guy open only for Lamar to completely whiff on the throw. He’s simply not consistent. Not from one game to the next, and sometimes not from one quarter to the next.
If you watch the other quarterbacks he mentions in the article-Herbert as well as Burrow-and I watch them all the time-they also miss wide open receivers. The difference is, Burrow, while super accurate, throws 5-7 “50/50” balls per game, and his receivers win most of them. That’s not “accuracy,” but gets counted as such. Herbert has Mike Williams-again, another 50/50 master. Lamar is a big-play QB. Similar to Randall Cunningham who would also miss an open WR, and then make a play that only he could make. Some QB’s are masters of the surgical 12-15 play drive, some are more big play specialists a la MiKe Vick. As far as him starting hot, each of those other seasons you mention with the exception of 2019 also included skill position injuries. The “regression” narrative is just tired. It has a whiff of “they’ve figured him out” which is also false. This guy has been battling perception every since he came in the league. Nevermind that his passer rating in 2022 in Tony’s own article is higher than 2021. How’s that regression? If Burrow or Herbert (who has won nothing) have a down year next year is anyone going to say they “regressed?” Of course not. Is anyone going to say they were “figured out?” Of course not. Only Lamar deals with these unfair labels and whispers.
I agree – and I think Tony said as much – that Harbaugh and DeCosta made critical errors, not firing the OC, not getting Lamar WRs. I’d add that DeCosta screwed up the O line in 2021, hasn’t held Harbaugh accountable, etc. So it’s hard to judge Lamar. Having said that, the business side of football is the business side. The Ravens made a rich offer. Lamar should take a deep breath, and take it. Move on.
Agreed. He should take the deal. Especially if its shorter. If he’s as good as he thinks he is…he wins a la Flacco.
FYI……no run oriented QB has ever won a SB! And, now that the rules favor the passing game, that’s not likely to change! Speaking of accuracy, Tyler Huntley completed 73% of his passes and threw 19 TD passes with only 4 INTs in his senior year at Utah! The only QB with a better completion % that year was…….Joe Burrow! Just maybe the new OC can find a way to capitalize on that…..
Those kinds of stats are a funny thing. Prior to 2016 no jump shooting team had ever won a NBA championship-and nobody thought you could. Until it happened. It used to be you couldn’t win the SB passing more than running, and nobody thought you could-until it happened. It used to be that you couldn’t win at all with a running QB-and nobody thought you could-until it happened. Hurts just played in the SB, and you could make the argument that he was the best player on the field that day-a running QB. Huntley is not close to Lamar as a player. JK Dobbins pretty much told you that after the playoff win. Do we really want to compare Huntley in college to Lamar in college? LOL. I don’t think that comparison favors Huntley-at all. Burrow is fantastic. I love his game. But in college, his top 2 WRs are both 2 of the top 5 WRs in the NFL now! LOL. His rb was 1st round draft choice of the Chiefs! Let’s get Lamar signed, and get him someone like Chase, or Jefferson, or AJ Brown and THEN compare him to these other guys.
Hurst…….lost! You’re entitled to your own opinion, but not your own……facts!
Jalen Hurts SB Stats: 27/38 304 yds 1 TD. No INTS. 15 Carrie’s 70yds.
Travis Kelce of KC “Hurts could’ve been the MVP. He was that good out there”.
That’s his OPINION! The fact is Hurst…..lost!
Not sure what your sports background is my guy. Your last blurb there seems to imply that in a TEAM game, it’s not possible to be the best player on the field even though your team didn’t win. Gotta break it to ya-that’s flat out false.
Not sure what my background has to do with understanding the difference between opinions and facts! The FACT is that NO RUN ORIENTED QB has ever won a SB! In your OPINION, Hurst was the best player on the field, but the FACT is that Mahomes was voted MVP…..
Ummm..yeah….the level of knowledge anyone brings to a conversation tends to become relevant the longer the conversation goes my friend. And a red flag was raised when I pointed out that Travis Kelce-a guy actually playing on the field gave his opinion, and you countered with an MVP vote that is the exclusive opinion of…the media. Most of whom have never buckled a chin strap. Not that all of their opinions are invalid, but….give me the guy in between the lines 9/10-he knows better. And again, the point of my previous comments were-yes no run oriented QB has ever won a SB? So what. There’s a first time for everything. No pass first oriented team had ever won before either as of 20 years ago-until they did. So that doesn’t really mean anything. No run oriented QB had ever won MVP either. Life is full of firsts. That anecdote doesn’t mean anything. Literally-it doesn’t mean a thing.
Facts can be inconvenient when trying to support a narrative, but facts speak for themselves! Opinions, as someone once noted, are like a..holes…..everybody has one! Records are made to be broken, but in an era of emphasis on the pass, it may take quite awhile before a run oriented QB ever wins a SB! Just my……OPINION!
I completely agree. The fact is, nothing ever happens-until it does.
And, on that note, we can end this debate…..
2 things can be true. Owners can be wary of Lamar, AND they can be colluding. There is no language preventing guaranteed contracts. Yet, in over 80 yrs of pro football, you can count them on one hand. You don’t think the players want them? LOL!! Anyone who doesn’t think it’s at least wink and nod collusion by the billionaires in charge is simply a shill for ownership/management. We aren’t in court. Believe your lying eyes. They have all “agreed” to not do guaranteed contracts. That….is COLLUSION. Is it provable collusion? Of course not. But lets stop with the cognitive dissonance. It’s more credible.
The best thing Lamar can do at this point is sign the tag and play out the 2023 season. If he communicates that he intends to play on the tag, the Ravens can begin making moves knowing what his cap hit will be. He can see how things go in a more pro-style offense under Monken and try to stay healthy. If he is able to stay on the field for all 17-games, misses less practice time due to illness or injury, and can replicate his numbers from 2020 (2019 was an outlier), then maybe he will have more of a market. If Lamar is saying he didn’t ask for a fully guaranteed deal, then why else would teams not want to take a chance at signing him to an offer sheet? My guess is it’s because he has proven difficult to negotiate with, and they figure the Ravens will just match the offer. The Ravens have said repeatedly that they want Lamar here long-term, but the solution isn’t to just throw whatever dollar figure he wants at him.
Its been widely reported exactly why those teams wouldn’t want to sign him to an offer sheet-because its believed that the Ravens will match any reasonable offer and teams don’t want to do the Ravens’ negotiating for them. Stats are a funny thing. You can choose to name 2019 as an outlier-and be correct. I can look at his total games career wise and look at total games missed and conclude he’s still missed fewer games than Burrow-and be correct. LOL. Again, I agree with you. He should sign the tender. Better yet, he should have an agent.
exactly this. Everyone wants to box Lamar in as a system qb, but what have the Ravens done to give him any weapons or make the system a 21st century one? The front office only has itself to blame if/when he walks. Has Lamar handled this well? No, but that doesn’t excuse how the front office completely failed him during his rookie deal.
This person run this article is clearly a Lamar hater. The league is colluding against him for a number of reasons. But I guess you don’t see that
He clearly does not see it as a collusion, that what the article is all about.
But he is not the only one, Pelisero has weighted similarly (remove ~20 teams that have QBs), remove teams that does not have assets (cap and/or draft capital) and you get to 2 or 3 teams only. Those 2 or 3 will have to weighted all the risks and costs (those mentioned in the article).
Josina Anderson talked about this custom made Offense also.
Ian Rappaport mentioned that a suitor would need to add enough cap room to get the offer sheet signed and wait 5 more days to see if the Ravens would match. If they fail to get Lamar they would have been out of the first wave of the Free Agency and out of Lamar. Too much risk just to make the durt work of negotiating with Lamar to land a deal on Ravens lap.
Jason (from Over The Cap) mentioned that the Ravens are clearly approaching their contracts as the Saints did to signal the market that the Ravens would match any offer (and EDC said that).
All in one, why those 2 or 3 tams would invest to much effort on chasing Lamar?
Not a hater and no I don’t.
No collusion necessary. Lamar screwed himself by not having an agent and then overplaying his hand. He is an inconsistent passer and his running ability has been game planned for by opposing defenses. He simply overvalued himself and has not been willing to negotiate.
The girls all get prettier at closing time…. Mickey Gilley
So tired of the collusion accusations! This isn’t 2019 and he’s no longer an MVP! His performance has regressed since then and he’s lost significant playing time due to injuries the last two seasons! So, what makes him worth anywhere near his demands?
This article echos my sentiments exactly. Only stated with much kinder words than I would have chosen. It will be a rough tough road to the Lombardi troph as long as this cat is the QB of the Ravens. Just put 8 in the box and wait for that 3rd & long. Easy peasy stop. God has not made a WR yet that can catch a pass 10 ft. over his head.
And the irony evolves that whoever has the money, the need and the will to land Lamar as the new face of their franchise will then not have the resources available to tailor their offense to take advantage of those ‘unique’ skills. Interesting.
“A strange game. The only winning move is not to play.”
He sits out , he is finished.
If the reports about study habits, sleep habits, refusal to play through injuries are accurate, along with the declining production and continuing questions about his abilities in the passing game, perhaps the Ravens opted for the non-exclusive tag in the hopes that someone would take him off their hands.
I think there is some truth to this. Its why no one has sent him an offer sheet.
The Ravens opted for the non-exclusive tag to show Lamar that he is getting his best offer from the Ravens. Like anything the longer he sits on the shelf the more his value decreases. If I was the Ravens I’d offer him less next year unless he makes big strides this year.
Yeah, I agree. If no one offers him a better deal than the one we’ve offered, it seems we’re competing with ourselves. If I was the owner I’d pull that offer off the table and tell him if he wants more, go out there next year and do a better job of ” betting on yourself ” then you did last year!
Tony, you hit all the nails on the head regarding LJ. This has turned into a nightmare for the Ravens. They will never get a deal with Lamar. Lamar’s franchise tag is holding the Ravens hostage. They will not be able to do much in free agency. And unless they have 5 hits in the draft, this team will look exactly like the one last year, while the other AFC North teams have improved. Maybe the Ravens should have let LJ take a walk and not use the franchise tag on him. Use the money to resign Ben Powers and get a WR. Draft a QB in the first round that you like (I like Hooker the Tennessee QB who tore is ACL) and will likely be out the whole year sitting and learning from Huntley. Or maybe they should have traded LJ for a bag of footballs and bring in Baker Mayfield to work with Monkton. This is going to play out with LJ showing up 7-10 days before the season opener, the Ravens winning 8 or 9 games, and the whole contract matter starts again next January
you want to draft a 25 year old quarterback with an acl injury? he is almost exactly the same age as lamar jackson… Hendon Hooker and Stetson Bennett and Chris Weinke and Brandon Weeden…..all the same crap.
Lamar is Cam Newton 2.0
Agree 100% He will be out of the league by 2030
He won’t last another 7 years
well 2018-2029 is not a bad earning period when your salary will always be seven or eight figures a year, you pay for almost nothing, your retirement is massive, etc etc
Maybe the Ravens should come out and say they will not match any offer. Any team who offers him a contract that he agrees to can have him. All that would be left to do is work out the trade details.
I like it …
Allen Iverson spectacular physical abilities but never won any titles
I’m a season ticket holder and i remember M&T bank all the way back in 2018. November 4, 2018 to be exact. Pittsburgh 23 Ravens 16 final at the bank. Flacco was injured that game, and most of the stadium were Steelers fans. We got heckled in the stands and laughed at on the escalator. Good times! Can’t wait to return to that next season.
Tony, I think just the fact that the Ravens didn’t use the Exclusive Tag, and made LJ available to every other team in the league has to give all the teams pause.
We’re obviously comfortable with the possibility of losing him.
It seems to me he may have a bad attitude. Maybe that’s why teams are not lining up for him
While Lamar may be talented and the Ravens are having a difficult time negotiating with him does this all point to a future outcome similar to that of Newton and Kaepernick?
Tony, How dare you use common sense for a “generational QB” it has to be collusion.
RE: Collusion. I know Tony knows this. He’s too smart not to. But for other fans-I’ll say this: Lamar being a running QB, his “regression” in skills (please), his injury history etc…All these things being used to justify why the owners not giving him a guaranteed deal supposes this: If Lamar were a traditional drop back passer who threw for 5,000 yds and 50 touchdowns and played all 16 games the last two years-he would obviously get a guaranteed deal right? LOL. NO. He wouldn’t. Because the owners have decided collectively-that they aren’t giving guaranteed deals. That…is collusion. Albeit unproveable. Lamar’s particular case is a red herring, and his faults as a player are a distraction from the truth. Believe your lying eyes and watch Burrow and Hurts contracts. Burrow is prototypical. If he gets a fully guaranteed deal I’ll wire you $1,000.
tHE NFLPA AGREED TO THIS WAY OF ARRANGING CONTRACtS!! THen….they want to complain about it. IF IF IF ….Why should ANYONE get a guaranteed contract when the salaries are totally inflated? The truth is we could go to a system of fully guaranteed contracts….but then the salaries MUST be lowered. The players association agreed to all of these rules such as franchise tags, deferred money vs cap….both sides agreed to this which honestly is ridiculous.
I AGREE THAT FULLY GUARANTEED CONTRACTS WOULD MAKE MORE SENSE!!!!! Then make the salaries REAL and not inflated nonsense.