Restarting the Baltimore-to-Indy Football Pipeline?

Nearly 40 years ago, football left Baltimore.

Bob Irsay, owner of the then-Baltimore Colts, packed up his team and moved them to Indianapolis overnight on March 28-29, 1984. Four decades later, his son Jim could be poised to once again steal Baltimore’s greatest football treasure. Only this time, the city might be okay with it, if it means an end to the Lamar Jackson saga.

Lamar Jackson to the Colts? 👀 pic.twitter.com/piFDHIKa3w

— PFF (@PFF) March 27, 2023

What was once a sweepstakes now feels like a game of hot potato, a bizarre Mexican standoff-meets-hostage situation in which no one seems like they can win.

As hard as the Ravens have tried to keep Jackson, they’re clearly ready to move on if – and only if – they receive appropriate compensation for their quarterback. But no team has stepped forward as a clear suitor for the enigmatic quarterback’s services, despite his history of torching almost all of them. If anything, most have scrambled to publicly distance themselves from the Lamar Jackson saga.

Lamar Jackson career stats vs. the coaches of teams who have publicly said they are not interested in him pic.twitter.com/z5AqJhwFjE

— Steven Ruiz (@theStevenRuiz) March 29, 2023

Jim Irsay’s comments about Jackson at the annual league meetings were by far the most positive of any team coach or executive in the last few weeks. Other teams could still be pursuing the 2019 MVP behind closed doors, but the Colts seem to be the only one with any real interest.

Just wrapped up a late night chat with Colts owner Jim Irsay…

The takeaways:

1) Regarding Lamar Jackson, he was emphatic "the money is not a problem," but instead took issue with the draft capital/compensation (didn't speak to fully gtd deal to be clear)

— Stephen Holder (@HolderStephen) March 28, 2023

Even though Irsay also said he does not “believe in fully-guaranteed contracts,” per Zak Keefer of The Athletic – a potential holdup with Jackson’s rumored contract demands – the Colts owner’s comments about money indicate that there’s still room to get a deal done. Irsay seemed more concerned with the compensation the Ravens would receive for not matching an offer sheet for the non-exclusive-tagged Jackson: two first-round picks, which would include the Colts’ no. 4 overall selection in this year’s draft, should they get the deal done before then.

Before the Panthers’ blockbuster trade with the Bears to move up to the first overall pick, I would have said the Colts should sit tight until draft night to see if one of their preferred QB prospects is available when they’re on the clock. If not, they could snag another blue chip prospect or trade back for a bounty of draft picks – and their rookie contracts – allowing them to go after Jackson following the draft. Indianapolis would then send 2024 and 2025 first-rounders to Baltimore if the Ravens decline to match their offer sheet, picks that would likely fall into the 20s with Jackson added to their roster. That’s much more appealing to Indianapolis than giving up their 2023 first, a pick that could land the biggest advantage in the NFL – an elite quarterback on a rookie contract.

With Carolina leapfrogging the pack to the first pick, though, the Colts now run the risk of missing out on their desired player at number four. Irsay appears to be tired of taking stabs at the position and instead wants to find a consistent franchise signal-caller that hearkens back to the days of Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck. Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud are the only two prospects with that kind of pedigree, and it feels like neither will make it past the third pick, whether they go 1-2 or the Arizona Cardinals trade back with one of the other QB-needy teams in the top-10.

Regardless, Jackson is more proven than both of the consensus top-two. It feels like Jackson’s talent and resume – including just the second unanimous MVP in league history, earned as a 22-year-old in his first full NFL season – gets lost in the drama, but he’s still one of the few players that has the potential to live up to the massive salary cap hits demanded by a top-of-the-market quarterback contract.

If Irsay learns through the NFL grapevine that Stroud and Young will be off the board by the time he’s on the clock, he may turn his attention to Jackson before draft night.

Why not wait? Well, the Ravens have signaled – certainly through their public roster moves and likely around the league in private – that they’re ready to match almost any offer sheet Jackson signs, especially since they can only receive two first-round picks if they don’t. With Jackson anchoring their offense, the Colts’ 2024 and 2025 picks would be in the back-half of the first round at best, a relative pittance compared to the returns of the Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson trades a year ago, for a player in Jackson with significantly more upside.

But if the fourth overall pick were available, Baltimore could be motivated to turn down their opportunity to match Indianapolis’ offer sheet and instead collect a bounty of draft capital. At this point, the Ravens might even be willing to tag-and-trade Jackson for less than the two first-rounders – say, the Colts’ first- and second-round picks this year, the 4th and 35th overall selections.

If Indianapolis prefers that to giving up their 2023 and 2024 first-rounders, the compete-every-year Ravens might as well take the deal. Armed with almost $40 million in 2023 – not to mention the massive swaths of future cap space that have been theoretically reserved for Jackson – plus three top-35 picks, Eric DeCosta could go to work rebuilding the offense and retooling the defense right away.

Things could get really interesting.

It may be tough to attract DeAndre Hopkins or Odell Beckham Jr. before the draft without a clear QB situation, but they might be interested in catching passes from the right rookie. Money talks, too. The Ravens could trade for Hopkins without him having to rework his deal, or outbid Beckham’s other suitors with a frontloaded deal for a star WR who has earned less than $5 million since 2021.

I’m also confident in Mike Macdonald’s ability to attract some of the defensive talent still on the market. Reunions with Justin Houston and Marcus Peters could come into focus, filling the Ravens’ remaining needs on that side of the ball. Baltimore might even prefer a younger option like Shaquill Griffin or Rock Ya-Sin over Peters, and they’d certainly have the money to make it work.

This is all before the draft, where almost anything could be in play with picks 4, 22, 35 and 86 across the first two days. The possibilities are endless, and for a Ravens franchise and fanbase that has spent more than 18 months in this agonizing quarterback limbo, a fresh start would feel like the weight of the world was lifted from their shoulders.

Your move, Indy. Lamar Jackson is yours for the taking. This time, Baltimore might actually thank you.