A Few Stats That Could Lead to a Picturesque Ravens Season
Like life, an NFL season can go any number of directions.
A rash of injuries could torpedo a season before it even starts, as Ravens fans know all too well, and an unexpected “career year” or two could swing the metaphorical pendulum in the opposite direction. There are also the seemingly good ideas that go up in smoke, or out-of-nowhere performances that could stabilize an expected hole.
You just never know until the games are played.
With an understanding that all possibilities are on the table, I’m offering up a few numbers that could go a long way in terms of the 2023 Ravens being a true championship contender at the end of the season.
15
As in, starts, for quarterback Lamar Jackson and cornerback Marlon Humphrey. These are the two “domino” players I see for the Ravens this season. If Humphrey goes down, considering the team’s untested depth at the position, things can go very badly, very quickly on the back end of the Ravens defense.
Ditto for Jackson — as we’ve seen the last two seasons when he has gone down to injury and the Ravens’ offense has turned into… well, an early-2000s Ravens offense.
20
If Odafe Oweh, David Ojabo and Tyus Bowser can compile 20 sacks on the season between them, the rest of the Ravens’ defense, if healthy at corner, could very easily be a formidable foe. If that number hits 25-30, it’s hard to see how teams won’t be forced to play differently against the Ravens, keep extra blockers in and resort to a short passing attack where speedy linebackers Patrick Queen and Roquan Smith can play chase and catch — a game they play well.
1,500
If JK Dobbins wants to prove to the world, and his future financial well-being, that he is indeed a feature back in this league, this is his shot, and 1500 yards of total offense could be a good barometer. It’s never been about talent or performance with Dobbins — he has averaged 5.9 yards a carry for his career. If he can stay healthy, and the production matches the teases we’ve seen over the last three years, Dobbins will get paid, and quite possibly in Baltimore.
If not, well, there will be questions, fair or not.
8
No, not Lamar Jackson. We already touched on what is most important for the team’s most important player. In this case, I’m talking league rankings at the end of the season. It’s not unrealistic to see both the Ravens offense and defense finish in the top eight of the league in terms of scoring — the most important metric there is to me at the end of the day. If they can accomplish that on both sides of the ball, 12-plus wins is a realistic possibility on the season.
8, The Sequel
Another “8,” and another team number. But this time I’m talking about turnover differential, and the Ravens finishing +8 or better would go a long way to a great season. Consider the four seasons Jackson has been Day One starter. In 2019, the Ravens finished +10 and went 14-2. In 2020, the Ravens went 11-5 and made the playoffs again, with a +4 differential. In 2021, the team was a disappointing -11 in turnovers, and finished 8-9. Last year, the team was on the good side again, posting +4, went 10-7, and were a very ill-timed turnover from getting past the Bengals in the Wild Card round.
It’s old school, but protecting the ball, and turning it over on defense, works.
40
Justin Tucker has kicked at least 40 extra points in four seasons during his career. The Ravens’ won 45 games in those four years, more than 11 per season. To be even more greedy, Tucker has kicked at least 50 on two occasions — 2019 and 2020. The Ravens won 25 games in those two campaigns. You know what? Let’s change that number to 50. It’s an off-season exercise, right? Might as well have some fun here.
2 Responses
1,500 yards may be a lofty goal for JK given the likely decrease in Raven rush attempts, but 7yds per carry is certainly an achievable goal.
Nice article. I agree with the Lamar and Marlon being major contributors. I am hoping the team can stay healthier than in the past especially Marlon. This is one of the reasons I believe we need another strong CB in case of an injury. Hopefully we can pick up one.
Oweh, Ojabo and Bowser, I like to see 25. I think Mr. Smith will help the pass rush drastically this season. I’m expecting 10+ sacks from Ojabo. Oweh will show improvement playing and competing with Ojabo. Hoping for a healthy strong season from Bowser in addition to some reps for Robinson.
JK and 1,500 is a reach. I think Todd will have a more balanced offense. Most of JK’s yards will be running the ball(over 1,000 yds). With all of our weapons I see the ball being spread around and this will limit JK’s opportunities.
8 yes. I believe if we play as a team and stay healthy we may be in top 5 on both sides. The question marks on the offense will be ball control and big plays and on defense the secondary play and pass rush. I see turnover game being at least +6. Continual improvement on the D will mean pressure and turnovers. With the new offense I see better execution, improved passing and less turnovers.
If Justin gets 50+ PATs this season it is reasonable to assume we will have a breakout season of 11+wins. 50+ PATs will mean 2 things, our offense will be better in the red zone and we will be putting more pressure on the opponents. 50+ PATS would mean we would averaging upper 20s in scoring. Scoring this much with our defense would make us very scary and a definite contender.
The one big question as you stated is can we stay healthy. If so, look out for the Ravens this season.