Ravens Pass-Catchers Through Two Games
Now THAT was an extremely satisfying game. I didn’t realize until the announcers pointed it out, but that was the Ravens’ third trip to Cincy in their last four games. It’s a relief that finally they were able to go in there with their “A” personnel, and convert the W.
This was a fine outing for Lamar Jackson. But it wasn’t over-the-top. He’s had more overtly impressive games, in my opinion. A couple that spring to mind are his 5 TDs in LA on Monday Night Football, and the huge comeback win versus Indy a couple years ago. So I’m a little surprised by the outpouring of adulation over Lamar’s performance, for example here:
When Lamar Jackson (@Lj_era8) gets fully comfortable, it’s over for the NFL!
Don’t trust me, trust the tape! 🔥🔥🔥
I apologize in advance for my excitement, but this gets me hype! #AchoAnswers #RavensFlock @RealmRavens @Ravens pic.twitter.com/u0up9MrQeo
— Emmanuel Acho (@EmmanuelAcho) September 20, 2023
Interestingly, the game plan versus Cincy didn’t play out all THAT much differently from how a Greg Roman game plan might have looked. The Ravens rushed for 175 yards and won the time-of-possession battle. They had more rush attempts (37) than pass attempts (33), rushing on 53% of their plays. Lamar had 12 rush attempts; he led the team in rushes. They used a rush-by-committee approach, with three different ball-carriers over 40 yards. Who’s really calling these plays?? Was it all a trick, and the Ravens didn’t actually change coordinators??
What’s different is complementing the rushing attack with the kind of passing success shown with all the completions dotting this NextGen Stats pass chart:
Lamar Jackson faced a career-low 9.1% pressure rate in Week 2, despite missing his starting center and left tackle.
Jackson has gotten rid of the ball quicker under new OC Todd Monken, averaging 2.60 seconds time to throw through two games.#BALvsCIN | #RavensFlock pic.twitter.com/wKkHgwcGHb
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 17, 2023
That’s exactly what Todd Monken described as “the challenge” in an interview back in February after he was hired. He said: “That is the challenge for sure, is marrying up what’s been done here in the past in terms of running the football and controlling the game – and obviously the number one object is to win, so that’s part of it – and yet, maybe bring things up, y’know, in terms of – more up to speed, I guess? Or what I’m used to, which is maybe a little more open sets, little bit more space.”
Most new offensive coordinators throw out the bathwater and the baby. Monken was advertised as not being like that. We were told he was a flexible coordinator who could integrate new improvements with what’s already good, into a seamless and effective whole. This game showed what that could look like.
If you like Xs & Os: former NFL backup QB JT O’Sullivan runs a YouTube channel called The QB School. He did a nearly 30-minute breakdown of Lamar’s day passing against the Bengals, and it’s the most comprehensive look you could want to see:
Super informative: JTO gushes in some places, and finds other things he thinks could have gone better. That’s maybe the coolest thing about the Ravens passing-game performance Sunday. Lamar played a good game, but he wasn’t perfect or overwhelming. There’s room for improvement. Exciting.
Play of the Game
You’re thinking the bomb to Flowers, right? Nah. This was the most surprising, suspenseful, jaw-dropping play:
Coolest play of the game? Easily this one, right? I remember thinking live that Lamar was done for. Only one guy could turn this sure-fire sack into a positive play. Unbelievable skill & savvy to pump fake the rusher & then shovel the pass to avoid catastrophe. #RavensFlock pic.twitter.com/3vX8GKad5m
— Dev Panchwagh (@devpanchwagh) September 18, 2023
Lamar turns a seemingly-inevitable sack by a free blitzer in his face, into an “easy” 7-yd gain on a screen pass. I was yelling at the TV, “Oh no, oh no – oh, wow.”
Stats
Here are your receiving stats for the game:
Last year I floated a tentative definition for a “good day” from a receiver. It was multiple catches with 7+ yards-per-target. I think of that as the receiver version of a “quality start” for baseball pitchers. Not an all-star performance, just a solid showing that gives your team a good chance. Turns out that wasn’t a perfect, deeply thought-out definition – it suggests that a receiver who catches one 90-yd bomb for a TD has not had a good day, which is stupid – but it helps me mentally get a handle on who is pulling the passing offense along versus who is “just” a checkdown or contributing on the margins.
The wide receivers pulled the passing offense along on Sunday. Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely are there – Andrews converted the touchdown in the red zone, which obviously is crucial – but the engine was Zay Flowers & Nelson Agholor & Odell Beckham, plus a little Rashod Bateman.
Wide receivers four-deep at the top of the chart. Eric DeCosta had a nice little offseason on offense, didn’t he? His three new acquisitions leading the way. This must be exactly what the Ravens brass were hoping for.
Flowers is on a pace for over 1100 yds on the season. That’s a blistering hot start, especially for a rookie. It’ll be interesting to see if defenses start to tilt their coverages toward him, and he gets slowed. The Ravens have enough options in the passing game that they should be able to counter defensive adjustments. Probably the real Chess game between coordinators is about to start.
Bateman’s low numbers are a surprise to me. Mind you, I have zero criticism when a receiver catches every damn thing thrown to him. But I thought Bateman would have “WR1” volume this year. Instead through two games he is fifth on the team in targets. Are the Ravens just ramping him up slowly after the comeback from Lisfranc surgery? Or is there really not going to be an opportunity for him to be featured in this set of players? I guess we’ll find out.
Leaderboard Watch
Flowers ranks 20th in the league in receiving yardage. No other Ravens is particularly high on the counting-stat leaderboards. The way TMonken preaches balance among the skill players, spreading the offensive load, that might continue to be true all season. Could be bad news for Bateman, who probably needs to make a case this season for the Ravens picking up his 5th-year option.
Bateman and Agholor are tied for 2nd in the entire league in Receiver Success Rate, a stat that Pro Football Reference has just this year made available on their site. They’re at 83.3%. Odell ranks 25th with 71.4%.
Flowers ranks much lower in success rate: 97th with 46.7%, despite his high yards-per-target. That makes sense when you think about it. Flowers has made some big plays, like the 50-yd bomb in Sunday’s game, which drag his average yardage UP; but he’s also been caught behind the line a few times on WR screens, which drag his success percentage DOWN.
As a group, the WRs are all clustered in the 30s in the league’s yards-per-target rankings. None has been an efficiency star, but they’ve ALL been pretty efficient.
Two weeks in, Lamar is 2nd in the entire league in completion percentage, behind Josh Allen, with 74.5%. (Gardner Minshew is at 76%, but hasn’t attempted enough passes to qualify.) That’s just a remarkable shift. Before this year Lamar has usually had to make difficult throws. Now there are some easy & makeable throws in the offense, which lets Lamar string together some completions and get hot. Of course, having a group of receivers who all have great hands is also an enormous benefit.
Lamar is 9th in yards-per-attempt and 10th in passer rating. He does NOT score as well in advanced stats like DVOA and QBR. That makes sense: he’s taken sacks, and in game 1 had two fumbles (one lost). That hurts him in the advanced stats, as it should. But I expect he’ll slowly tick up in those metrics over the next couple months.
Through two games the Ravens are 9th in points-per-drive, 8th in scoring%. To me those are the most important “basic” stats for offense: how often are you getting points, and how many, per opportunity? They’re a top-ten offense. They’re 4th in Offensive DVOA (behind only the Dolphins, Niners and Chargers). That’s exciting, considering that they’re still ascending the learning curve in the new offense.
Gus Edwards is tenth in DYAR, the counting-stat counterpart of DVOA.
Next Up: Home versus Indy! Last time these two teams faced off was Lamar’s 440-yard passing day in 2021.
As of Thursday, Indy rookie QB Anthony Richardson had not practiced due to a concussion he suffered in Sundays game against the Texans, so we may get to see The Mustache himself, Gardner Minshew.
