Offense
1. Staying on Schedule v. Schwartz
The Browns prioritize stout run defense and limiting explosive plays on early downs so that DC Jim Schwartz can unleash Myles Garrett and Za’Darius Smith to wreak havoc in obvious passing situations. So far this season, Cleveland has executed this plan to near-perfection, allowing just 21 first downs across their first three games. To move the chains consistently, the Ravens need to stay on schedule with down and distance, starting with their plan of attack on first down.
The Browns want other teams to run the ball on first down. That doesn’t mean the Ravens can’t do it, but they have to spread out the field more often with 11 personnel and operate out of that look on first down. They’ve been incredibly efficient running out of 11 personnel this season, averaging 0.36 EPA/play, with both under center and designed QB runs gashing opposing defenses.
Here's a look at how often & how well the Ravens have run out of each offensive personnel group through Week 3.
Numbers above each bar indicate the number of runs and the EPA/play out of each formation. pic.twitter.com/PdJi95oPhl— Daniel Rees (@DPRees8) September 27, 2023
Cleveland doesn’t blitz on first down often, opting instead for off-man and zone looks before switching to press-man on second and third down. The Ravens are missing their best press-man beaters in Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham Jr., so gaining yards through the air on first down will be crucial to setting up conversions on later downs. Expect Lamar Jackson to target Mark Andrews and Nelson Agholor on timing routes on first down to stay on schedule. Todd Monken should also mix in play-action based off 11 personnel rushing concepts to open things up downfield.
If the Ravens can consistently execute on first down for positive gains, they’ll avoid falling into the pressure-laden traps of second- and third-and-long against a relentless Cleveland pass rush.
2. Neutralizing the Pass Rush
Of course, the Ravens won’t be able to avoid the Browns’ pass rush all game. The Browns blitz a whopping 42% of the time on second down, trying to force offenses into third-and-longs.
Jackson first has to slow things down at the line of scrimmage, taking the time to identify blitzes and make adjustments before snapping the ball. Against straight pressure, his job is simple: find his hots and get the ball out fast. He won’t have time to try to make something happen behind the line of scrimmage against the Browns’ blitzes, which are designed to open up clear interior paths to the quarterback.
Justice Hill’s return would be a massive shot in the arm to counter the Browns’ pass rush. He’s not only the best pass protector in the Ravens’ backfield, but he also has the burst and speed to execute perimeter tosses and sweeps that can exploit the Browns’ blitzes.
On third down, Schwartz still blitzes 33% of the time, but they also dial up a lot of stunts and twists to open up free rushers, especially looping Myles Garrett inside. The Ravens can counter that by using Mr. Versatile himself, Patrick Ricard.
Ricard normally lines up as an inline TE to assist the tackles in pass protection, but Monken should move him around a bit to stymie the Browns’ line games. He can pull inside to give the interior an extra man to help with stunts, or even line up as a “sniffer” behind the line to step up and meet blitzers coming up the middle.
Even without the line games, though, Garrett is still one of the deadliest edge-rushers in the game. He throws so many different looks and moves at blockers, so the Ravens should counter that by throwing the kitchen sink back at him, similar to how the Chiefs handled Hassan Reddick in the Super Bowl.
Garrett shouldn’t get a clean rush all game, with chips coming from as many different directions as possible. A tight end screen can help limit his aggressiveness and force him to dial back the throttle, so his defense doesn’t get burned behind him. The Ravens have received criticism for their sprint-outs in the past, but they can take Garrett out of plays entirely if he’s lined up on the left side.
3. Motion as a Blitz Beater
The Ravens seemed to have dialed back their usage of pre-snap motion under Todd Monken, but it will be crucial to countering Schwartz’ coverage scheme with Bateman and Beckham sidelined.
First, they can roll out two tight end sets to get the Browns to match personnel before motioning Andrews or Likely into the slot for pseudo-11 personnel alignments and favorable matchups. That will also help Jackson identify blitzes and coverages based on who follows the TE into the slot.
Second, they can use motion to set up free releases and build up speed against the Browns’ press-man coverages. The Dolphins put on an absolute masterclass in pre-snap motion against the Broncos, thoroughly confounding their coverage and leading to big plays downfield.
Dolphins OC Frank Smith said this "exit" motion is the No. 1 thing he's been getting texts about on all levels of football, from high school to the pros. pic.twitter.com/WYkUIRAXiz
— Daniel Oyefusi (@DanielOyefusi) September 28, 2023
It’s already hard for opposing cornerbacks to keep up with Zay Flowers, so Monken should pound that advantage by giving him a running start at the snap. That will also help cover for one of his weaknesses: breaking free of press, something that the Browns and cornerback Denzel Ward will likely throw at him as often as possible.
The use of pre-snap motion has cascading effects across the offense, too. The Schwartz defense is relatively simple for their players to understand and execute. They want to move fast and break things, so throwing motion at them should complicate their assignments, forcing them to slow down and process what the Ravens are doing.
[Bold Predictions: Ravens at Browns]
Defense
1. Keeping Watson Contained
Since the Browns made the big move to acquire controversial quarterback Deshaun Watson, it hasn’t exactly been fireworks. Watson is among the least efficient or explosive quarterbacks in the league, a stark contrast to what he was with the Houston Texans.
In Cleveland, it seems like Watson is having a hard time adjusting to being more of a pure pocket quarterback who is expected to work within a structure. He’s had his ups and down with accuracy, ball security, and vision.
On the flip side, when Watson has been able to show glimpses of his old Houston self, it’s been mostly on improv plays. Watson remains dangerous when he’s able to extend plays and get his playmakers involved with a sandbox type approach. It’s when his athleticism and instincts come to the forefront.
The Ravens will have to force Watson’s hand and keep him contained more often in the pocket. If anything, perhaps opting to play more of a coverage style, dropping players in coverage, to potentially spy him and obscure his passing windows. That doesn’t mean don’t blitz Watson – because he remains one of the least efficient QBs when dealing with the blitz. But it means forcing Watson to throw through even tighter windows inside a collapsing pocket.
For the Baltimore defensive backs and back-end defenders, having discipline when Watson starts to move will be a major key. Just like facing a guy like Patrick Mahomes or Ben Roethlisberger back in the day, “plaster” coverage needs to be the calling card. When the receivers start to break off their routes, the back end defenders can’t get caught peeking at Watson. Stay with your man throughout the play.
2. Limit Explosive Plays
Not only is Watson better when he extends plays, the Browns offense has generated the bulk of their most explosive plays in those moments.
Some of the plays they’ve hit on have been a fair share of runs. Obviously, having a guy like Nick Chubb behind one of the best offensive lines in football will fuel those plays. But they are about a game and a half into an era without Chubb.
Still, Jerome Ford is no slouch and offers a dual threat element (more on that later). The return of Kareem Hunt also adds explosive potential to the ground attack.
Cleveland’s diverse running scheme incorporates wide zone, gap and other elements to stress even the most disciplined run defense. Baltimore would probably fit that description. However, it’ll be critical for the unit to stay on top of their keys, responsibilities and keep the bad run fits to a minimum to force the Browns to drive the field.
3. Answers to Blitz Beaters and Screen Action
Against the Colts, defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald decided to uncork the pressure packages and sell out more often to attack quarterback Gardner Minshew. The results were mixed.
While Macdonald was able to get some of the hits in, Minshew and the Colts also had some solid answers to the blitz. Eventually, it seemed like in the second half, he was figuring it out. The Colts ran some effective screens to their pass catchers. Maybe it was the sloppy conditions, but the defense wasn’t nearly as sound in their tackling as they were in week one and two.
The Browns could easily replicate that aspect of the game plan against the defense this Sunday. Getting back to Ford, he was in on a 19-yard touchdown reception against the Titans, and also added a 14-yard catch and run. Kareem Hunt is already one of the best pass-catching running backs in the league. Those two will be tough to deal with in any type of screen game.
Especially in third-down scenarios, when the Ravens showed more of an active blitz trigger, they will need to anticipate screens and blitz beaters to the receivers. And if they do blitz, the looks and coverages need to be more varied than what Macdonald showed the Colts last week.
One on One Matchup of the Week
Justin Madubuike versus Wyatt Teller
This week’s matchup centers on two bullies who want to take each other’s lunch money. Madubuike has had a mixed start to the season. Although he’s been an active rusher, he’s also been flagged for damning personal foul penalties. When he’s on, he can be very disruptive and a “ruined play” generator. Teller is one of the baddest dudes playing on the interior in the league. He doesn’t get the acclaim as someone like Quenton Nelson from the Colts but he’s every bit as dominant at times. The real challenge will be finding a way to keep Teller from getting to the second level against Baltimore backers Patrick Queen and Roquan Smith in the run game.
