Let’s Bounce Back in Week 6!

Last week was a tough one for me as I struggled to find my footing in the NFL betting world, going 1-4. The Ravens’ over seemed like a sure thing, but a series of dropped passes, including three potential touchdown catches, resulted in a tough beat. However, I did manage to secure a win on Thursday Night Football with my play @BetWithMatt_, where I recommended a comfortable bet on Isiah Pacheco going over 11.5 receiving yards, which easily hit in the first half.

But I’m not one to dwell on losses, and I’m ready to bounce back.

This week, I’m keeping my focus on player props, as I see some promising lines worth exploring. Let’s dive in.

Ravens vs. Titans in London

The Ravens are in London this week, and I have mixed feelings about betting on games in this unique location. London games have their quirks, such as the time zone differences that can affect players, and the games this year haven’t exactly been thrilling. That said, I’m leaning towards the Ravens -4. The Ravens are in a bounce-back position after last week’s loss to the division rival Pittsburgh Steelers. Unlike their previous London trip, the Ravens decided to travel early this time, leaving on Monday to allow players more time to adjust. The Titans, on the other hand, left on Friday. With the extra rest and the Ravens eager for redemption, I like their chances. I won’t be betting on it, but if I had to pick, I’d take the Ravens or maybe even adjust the spread to -3.

Since I’ve had a good run with player props, I’m homing in on Zay Flowers this week. Flowers has been outstanding for the Ravens this season, showing signs of a budding star. Although he had a drop (and a fall) last week, it was a shared woe among Ravens’ receivers, as we all well know. I expect Flowers and the Ravens’ wideouts to have a strong game against the Titans, who currently rank 25th in passing defense. Zay’s reception line is set at 4.5, which seems a bit low. He averages 5.4 catches per game and has surpassed this number in three out of five games this season. Additionally, the Titans’ defense has allowed opposing teams’ top wide receivers to exceed this number in every game this season, averaging 7.2 receptions. With the Ravens’ offensive line and wide receivers healthy, I foresee Zay getting numerous one-on-one opportunities. I’m betting on his over.

My bet: Zay Flowers over 4.5 receptions (-148)

Other NFL Picks

Commanders vs. Falcons

Brian Robinson had a tough game last week, rushing for just ten yards. However, it was due to the Commanders falling behind early, forcing them to pass frequently. The Falcons, meanwhile, have struggled against the run, ranking 19th in rushing defense. Robinson’s rushing yardage line is set at 58.5, which appears reasonable. He has surpassed this number in three of five games this season. The Falcons’ defense has allowed running backs to exceed this number in three of five games as well. Since the Commanders are in a bounce-back spot, I expect them to emphasize the run game to secure a victory in Atlanta.

My bet: Brian Robinson over 58.5 rushing yards (-114).

Raiders vs. Patriots

Josh Jacobs has had a challenging year, which is unexpected in a contract season. His offensive line certainly hasn’t helped things. The Patriots, likewise, have had a disappointing season, with Bill Belichick’s seat possibly getting warmer (a bold take). They desperately need a win, and this week they’re facing Jacobs and the Raiders, coached by Belichick’s former offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels.

Although Jacobs’ receiving yardage line is set at 22.5, the Patriots’ defense has yet to allow a running back to surpass this number this season. I believe the Patriots will focus on containing Davante Adams and Jacobs, making him a non-factor in the passing game.

My bet: Josh Jacobs under 22.5 receiving yards (-114)

Browns vs. 49ers

The Browns face their toughest matchup yet, taking on the best team in the league, the 49ers. To make matters more challenging, starting quarterback Deshaun Watson is out, with P.J. Walker taking the reins. This could potentially lead to a lopsided game. Surprisingly, the over/under line is set at 36.5, which might tempt you to hammer the over, especially with over 90% of the bets favoring the over and the 49ers. However, I believe the Browns will keep this game close. They’re playing at home, have a strong defense, and the 49ers could become overconfident and come out flat. I’m going against the public and picking the under.

My bet: Browns vs. 49ers under 36.5 total points

As we move into Week 6, I’m determined to bounce back and regain my winning form. Stay tuned for more NFL betting insights and strategies as the season unfolds, and let me know if you tail or fade!