It has been said that “The NFL trade deadline is like movie theater popcorn; the smell always gets you excited but it never really lives up to the hype.”
And trade hype is about all the Ravens and their fans walked away with as the 4PM deadline came and went yesterday despite the reported efforts of Ravens GM Eric DeCosta. The Ravens were unable to strengthen their roster via swap of draft capital and/or players. The organization has been a long-time subscriber to the credo, “right player, right price” and judging from DeCosta’s empty trick-or-treat basket, the aggressive GM was unable to find common ground with any other GM.
Several league insiders reported that DeCosta aggressively pursued a running back. Value, in the eyes of DeCosta, could not be discovered. Maybe salary cap issues were at play; maybe the payroll expenses for what could ultimately be a short-term rental were prohibitive; maybe the draft capital requirements were deemed to be too onerous; maybe it was a combination of all the above.
Whatever the case, at the end of the day, the Ravens decided that for the short-term and long-term benefit of the club, a trade, given market conditions, just wasn’t in play.
Trading for a running back is tricky business. The backs connected to the Ravens during the trade chatter included Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Josh Jacobs. Henry is deep into the back nine of his career and is relatively costly; Barkley is considered the face of the Giants franchise; and Jacobs is imprisoned by one of the league’s most dysfunctional organizations. Who knows how those conversations played out, particularly when you consider that head coach Josh McDaniels and GM Dave Ziegler were both fired at 1 AM this morning.
The common approach to addressing the running back position is through the draft where quality players can be obtained inexpensively while there’s less wear and tear on their bodies. So coming up empty at tailback in trade discussions, isn’t a huge loss. But one deal the Ravens didn’t make that is a bit curious, involves the newest member of the San Francisco 49ers – Chase Young.
The Niners landed the talented pass rusher for a 3rd-round compensatory pick. Granted, the trade may prove to be nothing more than a rental for San Francisco since Young will be an unrestricted free agent by the start of the 2024 league year. But it’s likely that Young will eventually land a long-term deal somewhere and if he signs with a team other than the 49ers, Kyle Shanahan & Co. will most likely land a 2025 3rd-round comp pick for their troubles.
So to summarize, the Niners get Young’s services for the balance of the 2023 season and the cost could end up being no more than the deferral of a 3rd-round comp pick from 2024 to 2025.
And it’s not as if Young will burden San Francisco’s cap or payroll. The 49ers are only on the hook for 10/18th’s of the 24-year-old Maryland native’s $1.01M salary.
That looks like a steal for the 49ers.
Keep in mind, the Ravens 3rd-round pick, regardless of where they finish in the 2023 standings, would be better than the pick the Commanders accepted in exchange for Young.
The Ravens do expect Tyus Bowser and David Ojabo back at some point. Perhaps their future availability influenced the Ravens decision not to aggressively pursue Young.
Maybe there’s something about Young that is known in league circles that curbed the enthusiasm of league GM’s, preventing a bidding war. Maybe his injury-checkered past was an influencer. Maybe rumors about his rouge tendency to prefer splash plays versus sticking to the team’s game plan was deemed to be unappealing.
But a player with that talent, motivated to play for his next contract, all for the price of moving a third-round pick from 2024 to 2025 and the bargain-basement salary of $561K for the balance of the 2023 season? The Ravens should have found a way.
It’s also possible that it was the collective decision of Washington’s ownership not to ship Young 40 miles north up the BW Parkway to a team that has siphoned some of the Commanders’ fan base. We may never know.
I was told Washington ownership had a strong hand in deciding to deal both Chase Young and Montez Sweat. Many in the building wanted to keep them because they believe in this team but in the end, its about the future for the Commanders.
— Dianna Russini (@DMRussini) October 31, 2023
Another factor at play that could have handcuffed DeCosta’s attempts to make a move is the team’s 2024 salary cap.
BUT, keep in mind that the Ravens have a very tight Cap in 2024 & a lot of key FAs (Madubuike/Queen/OBJ/Zeitler/Stone/trade acquisition?). Restructures will not help that & will make 2024 even tighter. https://t.co/UUtC8dMQ7I
— Brian McFarland (@RavensSalaryCap) October 25, 2023
You’re probably asking yourself, “Why is it that the Ravens are always up against the cap?”
Well, when you have star players at expensive positions, the salary cap will always be a factor – it will always influence decision making. Yet it’s fair to question some of the choices they’ve made. It’s also easy to point towards some bad luck that has prevented some expensive players from playing to the level of their pay.
Ronnie Stanley carries a cap figure of $23.7M. He hasn’t exactly been a model of health and he’s played in just 23 of the teams last 58 games since signing his record-setting deal. Marlon Humphrey has missed time this season and still appears to be rounding into form. He carries a cap figure of $20M. Tyus Bowser has been available for just 9 of the Ravens last 25 games while eating up $6.5M in cap space. Devin Duvernay weighs in with a cap figure of $4.5M and has 2 catches for 8 yards while ranking 3rd in punt return average (14.3 YPA). But is that worth the cap weight?
And then there’s Odell Beckham, Jr.
The Ravens gave OBJ $15M in guaranteed salary in 2023 with another $3M in incentives. I think those incentive dollars are safe. Through 8 games Beckham has 14 catches for 162 yards. That projects to 30 catches for 344 yards or $500,000 per catch.
To fit OBJ into the cap, the Ravens spread out the impact of the $15M with voidable option years, essentially kicking the can of this signing down the road for four more years to the tune of $2.77M per. For the moment, the signing looks like a huge mistake, but time will ultimately tell the full story.
At the end of the trade deadline day, many factors handcuffed DeCosta’s maneuverability, some self-inflicted. To be fair, he’s not alone. Some contenders like the Chiefs, Dolphins, Bengals, and Cowboys failed to make deals while the Bills, Jaguars, Eagles, Lions, Seahawks and 49ers improved via trade. Today, the focus shifts to the players the Ravens do have and those who may soon be available as their health improves. The plan is apparently to glean the most out of the current roster.
But given this roster, given the difficult free agent decisions and challenging salary cap gymnastics that lie ahead, 2023 might be the year to grab a championship, particularly during a season when there is no clear-cut powerhouse.
Chase Young could have been a difference maker for the Ravens. But now, instead of employing such an impact player, the Ravens will need to face him in Santa Clara, CA on Christmas Night, a day during which gifts are exchanged.
Too bad the Ravens couldn’t make a similar exchange with the Commanders yesterday.
5 Responses
Lol at anybody thinking the Deadskins would ever trade with us. In 4 years raise your hand if you think Adley or Gunnar gets traded to Nats. Name all the trades those 4 teams have made with each other. Ill hang up and listen
I’ve been reading a lot recently about how bad the return on investment is for Beckham’s contract, but we can’t ignore that Beckham was likely signed to appease Lamar, at least as much as for his potential production this season.
Look at that $15M as an additional $3M annual cost for 5 years of Lamar. Time will tell whether that was a good investment, but that’s really what it OBJ’s contract is about.
It always looked like OBJ was overpaid. I don’t remember anyone in the sports world calling that a good deal for the Ravens. The interesting thing about his signing was that Bisciotti was involved in helping to recruit him. This may serve as a good lesson for Steve to stay away from the FA process or… OBJ balls out in the Playoffs and he’s a genius.
I like EDC’s decision. I agree. I think we have a very good team that is getting healthier and gelling each week. We have blended some youth with vets. Our coaching has improved and the team has gotten better on the field.
If we stay healthy I believe we have all the pieces for a deep run already in place. After the season we can look at decisions to add via extensions, trades, draft and FA.
A good point to make is that we should be able to add to the team after the season without giving up assets. For instance there should be a few good RBs we could get cheap or we could draft one.
As far as deadline trades it was a risk/reward situation. Most of the deals made were high risk/low reward. There’s no guaranteeing a player is going to perform for years at a high rate.
Players like Young, Sweet, and Williams were all high risks IMO. If Young or Sweet play well then they will have to be signed to a big contract after the season or it turns out to be a short term lease and a loss of a high draft pick. Williams is still signed for a few years but at a high price. If his play falters then the Seahawks are stuck.
In the end, we have the talent and coaching short term. If we are healthy and continue trending upward, the sky’s the limit. The future is unpredictable. We may lose players and coaches/coordinators after this season. At least we have draft picks and some capital to look at needs and add to to the team after the season, possibly at a discount due to market conditions. I agree with EDC’s decision. Let’s ride it out and TCOB.
I must profess that my understanding of how the salary cap works is very limited, but the money the Ravens have spent recently will present an impediment to signing talent for the foreseeable future…….