The Ravens look to advance to (10-3) on the season as they host the LA Rams and in the process, control their own destiny as they aim to be the No. 1 seed in the AFC. How spectacular would it be to see Baltimore host the AFC Championship? But first things first.
John Harbaugh & Co. opened as a 6 ½ point favorite, a number that has swelled slightly to 7 points. And as the game approaches, as the Ravens come off their bye, the stats are piling up suggesting a Ravens win at The Bank on Sunday. Here are a few…
• Baltimore is 3-1 vs. the Rams under head coach John Harbaugh. The only loss coming in 2021 with QB Tyler Huntley at the helm.
• The Ravens enter the game with a (19-5) all-time record at home against teams from the West Coast/Pacific Time Zone winning five of their last six such matchups. As the starter, QB Lamar Jackson is an undefeated (5-0) at home when facing these teams.
• The Ravens own a 43-22 (.662) overall and 26-7 (.788) home record in interconference play under head coach John Harbaugh (since 2008), with each mark ranking No. 1 in the NFL.
• Since 2003, West Coast teams playing in the east at 1PM win at roughly a 40% clip.
• Meanwhile the Rams are:
o 1-4 straight up in their last 5 games against Baltimore.
o 3-10 straight up in their last 13 games on the road.
o 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games.
o LA Rams are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Baltimore.
And then there’s this:
Despite the overwhelming statistical evidence to the contrary, I’m here to tell you, this game worries me. The Rams are playing their best football of the season and the team’s youthfulness may help them overcome some of the west-to-east minutiae. Besides, the winning percentage of 40% has improved over the years as teams dial into the physiology of the affects travel has on the body and how to optimize performance when traveling.
Win matchups. Exploit weaknesses. Protect the quarterback.
The rest will fall into place.
A soggy place for sure, at least on Sunday…
The current forecast for Sunday’s #Ravens v. #Rams.
Got 23 personnel? pic.twitter.com/bPaOZ8AVDE
— Tony Lombardi (@RSRLombardi) December 6, 2023
The forecast screams, “RUN THE FOOTBALL!” The Ravens have the league’s best rushing offense while the Rams field the 16th ranked rush defense. LA will send out the NFL’s 15th ranked rushing offense against the Ravens 11th ranked defense v. the run. Turnovers will undoubtedly be a factor in the sloppy conditions. Through 12 games the Ravens are +5 in turnovers while the Rams are -2.
The Ravens will be the team dressed like grape popsicles.
Purple on purple this week 😈@JustinMadubuike | @Invisalign pic.twitter.com/TBdxUFAEs2
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) December 6, 2023
The Blind Side
If the Ravens fail on first down (2 yards or less), their playbook becomes more limited. That’s not unique to the Ravens. But what may be more unique is their inability to protect Lamar Jackson in obvious passing situations. And this really is the result of a perfect storm.
The pressure comes from the edge. Lamar steps up or bails left or right. If he steps up, defenses squat on the shorter routes inside the number where Jackson prefers to deliver. If he bails out to either side his options are cut in half. Fewer resources are invested by defenses on the back end because Lamar has failed to connect on deep throws. The bubble screens and jet sweeps are overused crutches that are extremely telegraphed. And there’s no Mark Andrews to bail them out. Look for the Rams to play very close to the LOS given the windy conditions which limits the passing playbook.
But back to the offensive front…
Obviously, more efficiency on first down will help. But the biggest boost to the Ravens offense would be Ronnie Stanley performing to the level of his pay. But I’m not counting on it. A bye isn’t going to transform him into the All-Pro tackle he once was. I’m not sure anything will. But it would be nice if Stanley could at least be average. At least come out as fired up as the kangaroo on the left.
— Out of Context Human Race (@NoContextHumans) December 6, 2023
If you put any stock into Pro Football Focus (“PFF”), Stanley currently ranks 58th overall amongst all tackles (63.7); he’s tied for the 42nd spot in pass blocking (71.5); and he’s 50th in run blocking (64.5). Comparatively speaking, Morgan Moses ranks 17th, 17th and 28th, respectively, in the same categories.
Highest-graded offensive tackles this year 💪 pic.twitter.com/5sCL7vDszZ
— PFF (@PFF) December 6, 2023
QB’s Dropping
A look at starting quarterbacks around the AFC, reveals that 7 teams are playing without their starters including 5 of the top 10 seeds in the conference. And unfortunately for the Jaguars, the league and all its fans, that now includes Trevor Lawrence.
This week Jacksonville head coach Doug Pederson confirmed that Lawrence’s injury is a high ankle sprain BUT…he was not ruling him out for Sunday’s game in Cleveland.
That seems overtly optimistic but for the Jaguars, let’s hope its realistic. The league needs dynamic playmakers to help shine up a game in decline. But even if Lawrence returns, he’ll be limited. His mobility opens up things in the passing game and run game for Jacksonville. A premature return might also put Lawrence in position to risk a more extensive injury. The bet here is that he’ll miss at least one game, perhaps two. That second game is in Jacksonville where the Jaguars will host the Ravens on Sunday Night Football.
After Trevor Lawrence's injury, Trey Hendrickson got down on a knee and took a moment for Trevor.
Class act. 🧡🖤 pic.twitter.com/w4v5WHfKV3
— NFL (@NFL) December 5, 2023
Ravens or Dolphins in the AFC?
The NFL is without question a week-to-week league. This week’s darlings are the 49ers. Next week, another team will get the media spotlight. And that team very well could be the Miami Dolphins. Yesterday on ESPN’s First Take, the panelists debated which team is the AFC’s best, Miami or the Ravens.
🎥 Louis Riddick on the Miami Dolphins: “Do not get fooled by what happened to Miami in the past… don’t be surprised when Miami is splitting people’s wigs open late in the season.” (@FirstTake) #FinsUp pic.twitter.com/7SkUa9uL02
— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) December 6, 2023
That New Year’s Eve game at The Bank featuring the Ravens and the Dolphins could determine the conference’s No. 1 seed. Don’t be shocked if that 1PM game is flexed to Sunday Night (8:20 kickoff), a spot that is currently occupied by the Packers at Vikings. Let’s not forget that the Vikings, now led by QB Josh Dobbs, scored just 10 points and “racked up” 242 yards of offense at home against the then (3-8) Chicago Bears. And they did it on a national MNF stage. Their performance put more Americans to sleep that night than ZzzQuil.
[Another RSR Original you will enjoy…]
He Said What?
The cheese has officially slid off David Carr’s cracker. Maybe he took too many shots to the head when he was sacked a record number of times in a single season (76) back in 2002. Listen in to his suggestion on improved quarterback play in Philadelphia.
If Philly wants to win it all, get Jalen healthy. If not, play your injured qb and watch the SB at home. Really easy https://t.co/G59oE4q5Ls
— David Carr (@DCarr8) December 6, 2023
Parting Shots
Recently Spotrac listed some contract projections for pending 2024 free agents. Among them, Patrick Queen. Spotrac projects a 4-year deal for Queen valued at $67M. Queen wasn’t impressed. Expect the 2020 first-round pick to morph into a 2025 third-round comp pick.
According to the Washington Post’s Jason LaCanfora, the Ravens could be losing both of their coordinators this offseason. A “top executive with a team” allegedly shared this with LaCanfora:
“Baltimore is going to lose them both. I like the OC more than the DC. The OC is going to be somebody’s head coach, man. He’s done it [at Southern Mississippi] before. His offense was great at Georgia. He’s ready.
“I look at the players to be my guide. Look at how happy Lamar [Jackson] is in this offense. Their scoring is way up. Monken’s been through the process before. He knows how to handle himself. There’s a lot of buzz about the young DC, too. I don’t know as much about him, but I know people like him. But, man, I think Monken is going to get one.”
Way up?
In 2022 the Ravens averaged 20.6 points per game. In 2023 they’re averaging 27.0 PPG, all with Lamar at the helm. In 2022, with Tyler Huntley at the controls beginning with the start of the second quarter against the Broncos during week 13, the Ravens scored a total of 75 points over the course of 6 games. That’s 12.5 PPG. Prior to Lamar’s injury the Ravens averaged 25 PPG in 2022.
Those two points per game more in 2023 (27 pts v. 25 pts) can be credited to Monken along with the additions of Odell Beckham, Jr., Zay Flowers, Nelson Agholor and Keaton Mitchell. And of course the passing development of Lamar.
So…this all makes the 57-year-old Monken a head coaching candidate? Really?
Mike Macdonald is a different story. He fits the profile of the hot new, young coaching hires, albeit on the defensive side of the ball.
“A top executive of a team”, he said.
That’s LaCanfora’s secret source?
What team? JLC’s fantasy team?
Speaking of fantasy, remember LaCanfora’s past “scoops” such as 2018’s John Harbaugh and the Ravens’ mutually parting of ways or Zach Orr’s contract extension?
Hearing Ravens made considerable progress with LB Zach Orr on a new contract. They have a press conference scheduled for Fri. May be related
— Jason La Canfora (@JasonLaCanfora) January 20, 2017
Never informative but usually entertaining.
In a strange kind of way.
8 Responses
Yeah in what world is 57 yr old Monken a hot candidate. What a clown show that station is.
Do not see Monken getting a HC job after this year. He hasn’t transformed the O. In some cases late in games that we lost, he was bad. Running schemes and RPO were in place. Team is winning primarily because of the D. Nice job but not HC worthy as a result of this year.
McDonald is still too junior. Hiring a HC is a huge deal. It is hiring a CEO / face for your company who can drive execution. IMO he isn’t ready and no chance I would hire him for my team. Not right now at least. Maybe Steve B pays him more to stay and learn, but not so fast.
I would like to know why LaCanfora is so negative towards the Ravens, always trying to get a dig in at them. Everything from saying Hamilton isn’t a play maker, to saying Lamar should have a “sit in” during training camp. Everyday its some little negative b.s he directs toward the Ravens. Tired of it.
I agree, he hardly ever says anything positive. When he starts his criticism I feel like asking him how many teams are calling him to run their teams. He has really been on EDC, I feel EDC stole his wife or something personal!
I don’t think either is going anywhere. McDonald will want and need another year to show out. Monken could be in line if a team wants an old school bridge to a future hotshot. But I doubt anyone looks in that direction. JLC is a joke as is the Washington Compost. When Jeff Zrebiek of the Athletic reports the rumor I will believe it, but not based on JLC.
Not sure Monken is a hot candidate. But the idea that you have to be “young” now as a hot candidate is somewhat silly on behalf of the owners. I mean it SOUNDS good. But, these guys are firing coaches inside of 3-4 yrs anyway. Harbs, Tomlin, Belechick. But who else has had real longevity recently? If your guy lasts 10 yrs that’s excellent.
JLaC is simply a stupid, noisy, fat c**t.
Pay him no heed
Interesting tidbit on the Harbs/Ravens after a bye week and against the NFC. Thank you.
We win in the trenches and it may be the major downfall in the playoffs. The pass blocking is a major problem and needs to be addressed in the off season.
QB injuries has been interesting. IMO it would be a major mistake bringing Lawrence back to soon. We’ll see. Let’s just hope Lamar remains healthy this season and in the future.
Monken may be gone but on his own free will. He’s always moved around after a few years. And Mac, let’s just hope he stays for awhile longer. Our window is short so hopefully they are both around for a few more years.
JLC? LOL really?