The Baltimore Ravens’ battle against the San Francisco 49ers feels like a Super Bowl preview. The Ravens and the 49ers have identical 11-3 records and are currently the leaders of their respective conferences. We’re going for it. Here are your four downs. This one is the biggest Christmas gift of them all.
First Down: Ravens’ Concerning Run Defense
The San Francisco 49ers present matchup problems all over the field – it’s why they are so effective on offense. That being said the Ravens have answers for most anything. Kyle Hamilton is a cheat code for the defense (a tune I’ve been singing all year). He gives the Ravens so many options in pass defense and can take away a lot of the easy completions with which San Francisco likes to abuse their opponents. Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen are a dynamic duo in the middle. The 49ers face a defense with more answers than they are used to seeing.
But everything hinges on how the Ravens fare at stopping the run.
They gave up 114 yards to the Rams’ Kyren Williams a couple of weeks ago. The last time the Ravens took a loss, the Browns totaled 178 yards on the ground. In that contest, Jerome Ford racked up 107 yards, averaging 6.3 yards per attempt. The Ravens haven’t had a lot of concerns on the defensive side of the ball, when they have stumbled, it has been the run defense that breaks everything loose for their opponent. It’s sneakily been a problem all season. Zack Moss had a 30-carry day in Baltimore and picked up 122 yards on the way to a Colts win in Week 3. This week that concern is going into hyperdrive because Baltimore faces Christian McCaffrey.
McCaffrey is the ultimate weapon. He averages 5.3 yards per carry and has 1,292 yards on the ground. He also has 57 receptions and can line up anywhere on the field. Once the 49ers know they can get whatever they want on the ground, defenses have to overcommit to stop the run. This is when all those easy completions the Ravens are equipped to stop become a problem.
Second Down: Time of Possession
The Ravens and 49ers can put some points on the board. Baltimore has scored over 30 points six times while the 49ers have done it nine times. Both teams are good at keeping the other team off the scoreboard. The 49ers give up an average of 16.7 points per game while the Ravens average 16.1 points against.
Something has to give. Time of possession is going to be the key. The team that has the ball the most is going to dictate the terms and conditions of the game. This is one area the Ravens tend to be excellent. Against the Jaguars the Ravens had the ball 35 minutes and 19 seconds. They controlled the ball for nearly nine minutes more than the Jaguars. The Ravens held the ball for over 40 minutes of the 60-minute game against the Seattle Seahawks. When they want to play keep-away, the Ravens are good at it.
The 49ers’ strategy will probably be to tire out the Baltimore defense. They will want to rack up the number of plays they have in the first half and give McCaffrey a heavy workload. If the 49ers can get the Ravens running every which way but loose, there will be devastating consequences. Minding time of possession isn’t just about Lamar Jackson and company staying on the field. The Ravens’ defense has to win early downs and pressure Brock Purdy on the money down. Every third down is a burden of responsibility in this game.
Third Down: Purdy’s Toughest Test Yet
There is some talk of Brock Purdy being the NFL MVP. He has 3,795 yards, 29 touchdowns, and seven interceptions on the year. Lamar Jackson is another MVP candidate and he has 3,105 yards in the air with 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Purdy is putting up some huge numbers, but it doesn’t feel like going against Peyton Manning or Tom Brady. I guess that’s a dated reference; let’s say it doesn’t feel like going against Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen. Purdy plays for the most creative offensive mind in Kyle Shanahan, has a great offensive line, the best running back in the NFL, a top three tight end, and has some good receivers. He has more help than any quarterback in the NFL and that is a big reason the 49ers are the best team in the NFC. The Ravens want to test Purdy. Purdy is clearly a good quarterback.
But how good is he?
The Ravens’ likely strategy will be to present answers for the 49ers’ weapons, slow down their rushing attack, and put the game on Purdy. That’s essentially the game plan that got the Cleveland Browns a 19-17 win over the 49ers. In that game, McCaffrey only had 43 rushing yards. BPurdy went 12 of 27 passing for 125 yards, with a touchdown and a pick. George Kittle only had one grab for one yard. The Ravens need to take away the 1-800 hotline Purdy has to go to on every play. The Ravens have an opportunity to give Purdy his roughest day at the office. Baltimore has 50 sacks on the year. Purdy will see fewer clean pockets than he’s used to. If the Ravens take care of assignment football, Purdy could be in trouble.
4th Down: Not a Must-Win…but One You Want
The Ravens have a chance to win the number one seed in the AFC. But they don’t have to win out to make their number-one seed dreams come true. The Ravens play the Miami Dolphins after their showdown with the 49ers. If somebody told you that the Ravens could only win one of the next two games, you’d pick the Dolphins game without hesitation. The Ravens have given themselves enough breathing room that their clash with the 49ers isn’t a fight of desperation. The Ravens were the first AFC team to clinch a playoff spot. They can win the AFC North with a win and a Browns loss, but they have a tremendous chance of being the AFC North winner, even if they lose to the 49ers.
Beating the 49ers would give everyone confidence that this is a Ravens team that is rolling on all cylinders at the most important time of the season. The Ravens could very well see the 49ers in the Super Bowl. This game will tell John Harbaugh a lot about his team, no matter what the outcome is. The 49ers have steamrolled even good teams this season. There’s no shame in losing this battle. This strikes me as a game that will be settled by a field goal either way. It’s a tough battle in Santa Clara, but the Ravens should hold their own and both teams will look favorable in the holiday spotlight. It can go either way. Anyone who tells you any different is spinning a narrative.
3 Responses
Well said! Nothing to lose and everything to gain by a win! Just hope the “O” line can hold up with help!
Chris,
I have been reading all week and have seen nobody address the weight of this game so I was happy to see 4th Down. It seems to me that the SF game has relatively little importance in the big picture.
I think KC will win out with “easy ” opponents. Miami has a really grim outlook with Cowboys, Ravens , and Bills. So say the Ravens lose in SF. Does it matter? If they lose at home to Miami it certainly does matter, but that’s only if Miami has beaten somebody. And if the Ravens should lose at the end, to the Burghers, if it matters, then they don’t deserve to be there. I get lost in the permutations but It seems that this game is very interesting but not vital at all.
Meanwhile the dolphin results will be in before the game. How will that play on the game? How much effort or risk will SF put in with little or nothing to gain? Maybe someone can enlighten me.
I want Lamar to win the MVP so that the fans in SAN FRAN will lose their fucking minds.