RSR Predictions For a Christmas Night Extravaganza

It’s a Christmas night primetime battle when the two teams with the NFL’s best records (11-3) square off on Monday Night Football. Entering Week 16, the Ravens own the AFC’s No. 1 playoff seed, holding a one-game lead over the 10-4 Miami Dolphins, while this week’s opponent, the San Francisco 49ers currently sit at No. 1 in the NFC playoff race.

The Ravens sit atop the AFC North standings with a two-game lead over the 9-5 Cleveland Browns. Following Monday’s game at San Francisco, the Ravens will host Miami on New Year’s Eve and then close regular season action vs. Pittsburgh.

With three games to play, the Ravens have already clinched their 11th playoff berth during head coach John Harbaugh’s 16 years at the helm. Only the Patriots (12) have earned more playoff berths than the Ravens since Coach Harbaugh’s 2008 arrival.

Baltimore is 4-2 all time against the 49ers, including its Super Bowl XLVII victory during the 2012 season. These teams last faced each other in 2019, when the Ravens won, 20-17, courtesy of a last-second, 49-yard K Justin Tucker FG at M&T Bank Stadium. Holiday square offs aren’t uncommon between these two teams. On Thanksgiving Night in 2011, the (8-2) Ravens beat the (9-1) 49ers 16-6.

Good Morning #RavensFlock

HAPPY PURPLE FRIDAY 💜

12 Years Ago Today,

The Ravens would play their first-ever game on Thanksgiving winning a defensive struggle vs the San Francisco 49ers 16-6.

The Ravens sacked 49ers QB Alex Smith 9 times in the game tying a franchise… pic.twitter.com/oWhVkWPCHR

— T.D.R (@TheDailyRaven) November 24, 2023

In 2015 the (1-4) Ravens traveled to Santa Clara to take on the (1-4) 49ers and lost 25-20. Anquan Boldin had 5 catches for 102 yards and Torrey Smith posted 4 grabs for 96 yards including a 76-yard scoring strike from Colin Kaepernick. The game was pure torture for Ravens fans. Then in 2019, the (9-2) Ravens hosted the (10-1) Niners, beating them 20-17, a game during which Lamar Jackson rushed for 101 yards.

How will things play out in 2023?

Tony Lombardi

This game tees up nicely for the crew at ESPN. What a great Christmas night matchup, right? But is it all that meaningful? This game isn’t as important as the next two against the Dolphins on NYE and the following week against the Steelers, both at The Bank. That said, I do expect a competitive game.

• The Cardinals had 436 yards of offense last week against the 49ers, 234 on the ground. Look for the Ravens to try and grind down the San Francisco defense and do their best to stay out of situations that will put Lamar at risk – in other words win first down so that the 49ers won’t unleash Nick Bosa & Co. on an offensive line that is hurting on its flanks. Ravens get 380 yards of offense split evenly between the run and pass.

• On the flip side, look for Christian McCaffrey to run for over 100 yards and Brock Purdy to use his backfield mate’s prowess to his advantage in the passing game by effectively employing play action. McCaffrey gets one score, Deebo Samuel hauls in 6 passes for a 110 yards and a score on a crosser that features over 30 yards of YAC. The 49ers other score, the game winner, will come on a Purdy to Kyle Juszczyk connection in the red zone.

The good news on the day comes in the form of losses by both the Browns and the Dolphins. Despite the loss to the 49ers, the Ravens remain in control.

49ers 27, Ravens 20

[How will the Ravens deal with life after Keaton Mitchell?]

Rob Shields

In this game, both teams face their toughest test of the season. A true unstoppable-force-meets-immovable-object type game.

My biggest concern isn’t the 49ers offense and all their weapons. It’s the 49ers edge rushers against the Ravens’ beat up offensive tackles.  How Lamar deals with their pressure is key.

The reverse is true as well. The 49ers will give up their fair share of pressures too. How well the 49ers can handle the Ravens front 7 will be big.

Every aspect of the 49ers is humming and they are currently one of the best teams ever in the DVOA era. On the other hand, the Ravens can say the same thing (although not quite to the level of SF).

Stopping/slowing down McCaffrey is my next biggest concern considering the Ravens run defense has been a little shaky at times recently.

This is a game the team can lose and it won’t really hurt them but it’s also a game where they have to travel across country and the next week, they play Miami on a short week in a game that could decide the AFC’s top seed. So, for me, coming out of this game healthy is a huge key and very important.

I’ll take SF in this game. Cross country travel, on the road, and I think SF is better right now, especially since the Ravens are having issues on their o-line.

49ers 27 Ravens 17

Darin McCann

The hype machine is rolling pretty heavily for this “Game of the Year,” both locally and nationally, and with good reason — it is a reasonable take to proclaim these two teams the best in their respective conferences to this point of the season. And while next week’s game against Miami will probably mean more int he grand scheme of things, this one should be fun. And “fun” sounds good to me on Christmas evening. Here are a few bold predictions:

• A lot of the talk is about the quarterbacks, and for good reason, but there are also two linebacking tandems looking to stake their claim as the finest in the league. Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen will play like demons, combining for 25-plus tackles, a forced fumble and two sacks.
• As for the quarterbacks, I think both play reasonably well, but don’t really light up the scoreboard. I have Lamar Jackson throwing for 180 yards, running for 60 and accounting for two touchdowns.
• One of those touchdowns will be an electric did-you-just-see-that plays where he buys time and hits Zay Flowers for a 30-plus-yard score.
• Gus Edwards scores a touchdown and leads the game in rushing yards.
• Justin Madubuike and Odafe Oweh each have sacks.

 

Ravens 27 49ers 24

Derek Arnold

Via our friend @theNFLAnalyst on Twitter/X:

OMG….look at the defenses the #49ers have faced this season. (yds/play allowed) #Ravens should provide a challenge

Steelers 21st
Rams 20th
Giants 26th
Cards 29th
Cowboys 9th
Browns 2nd
Vikings 10th
Bengals 31st
Jax 28th
TB 25th
Seattle 23rd
Eagles 22nd
Seattle 23rd
Cards 29th

— #PurplePatrol (@TheNFLanalyst) December 21, 2023

Nine of the 12 defenses the 49ers have faced this season are ranked 20th or lower in yards per play allowed. I think the SF offense encounters some resistance that they’re not used to, even with Deebo out there (he was out when they lost to the Bengals and Browns).

I am curious how these teams approach this game. Neither squad “needs” it for seeding purposes, as long as they win their other two games, and they both need to consider the possibility of meeting again on the game’s biggest stage in February. Will we see vanilla, close-to-the-vest gameplans on both sides of the ball? It wouldn’t surprise me.

Neither would a late-day Christmas present. A dozen years ago, the Ravens ruined 49ers fans’ Thanksgiving. Will they repay the favor on a different holiday?

I say…no.

Ravens 23 49ers 20

Tanner George

This is starting to feel eerily similar to the 2019 season.

Lamar’s playing at an MVP level. The Ravens are currently slotted to be the top team in the AFC. And once again, the 49ers are an NFC powerhouse.

The Ravens are consensus underdogs heading into this game and understand the significance of it. San Francisco looks nearly unstoppable, but I’m sure that no one over at 1 Winning Drive feels that way. Both teams are built differently; the Ravens around depth, the Niners around superstars. And I believe depth prevails.

Ravens 27 49ers 24

Jared Pinder

When the schedule was first released this game was the one everyone circled. The hype has only grown throughout the year with these two teams being the undisputed best teams in the NFL. Now they both meet up on Christmas night in a heavyweight fight where feelings will be hurt and the victor will be crowned the best team in the NFL (until the playoffs start.)

— Lamar has to improvise to win this game but he does manage to gain over 200 yards by himself through the air and on the ground.

— The tackles get worked – with or without Stanley – and the Niners have at least three sacks on Lamar.

— The Niners’ rushing attack is potent as CMC has a big day and goes for over 100 rushing yards

— Purdy has an okay day but doesn’t throw for over 150 yards as the Ravens’ secondary locks them up.

In the end, I think this comes down to the Ravens tackles being so bad and the loss of Keaton Mitchell. Without those factors, I would predict a win, but I just can’t.

49ers 31 Ravens 27

Kevin McNelis

Oftentimes when we approach a game billed to be a heavyweight matchup, it doesn’t live up to the hype, but I truly believe this game is going to be everything that football fans hope for. The only two 11-3 squads in the league, tops in their respective conferences, toe-to-toe in a prime time matchup chock full of MVP candidates. What’s not to love?

— There’s been tons of conversation around the offensive firepower of both teams, but the defenses by the numbers are just as impressive. I think that the defenses become the premier units on the day, with the game landing firmly in the under on points. After all, these are the top two defenses in the NFL in terms of scoring.

— The clash between Gus Edwards on the ground facing the Niners defense in the red zone might register in the Richter Scale in the Bay Area. Uncharacteristically, the Gus Bus is parked outside the end zone, failing to punch it in on multiple red zone drives. CMC is stuffed on the ground as well, but does score a receiving touchdown.

— One X-factor that could tip the scales in Baltimore’s favor is Brock Purdy simply not knowing the enemy. Purdy has never faced the Ravens before, and QBs in their first matchup against Baltimore tend to fare poorly. Purdy forces a throw in the direction of Brandon Stephens, who makes a Christmas present out of it and takes it to the house.

Vegas odds may have you believe that the Niners are significant favorites in this game. I think the margin is closer than what the oddsmakers would have you believe, but playing on the road against this year’s squad is no joke. I think the Ravens can win it if they can force mistakes and take advantage, but I worry about pass protection in this one.

Niners 17 Ravens 16

Chad Racine

The leading AFC and NFC juggernauts face off in the biggest marquee matchup of the year on Christmas night. As big of a game that it is, it’s still not a necessity to win for the number 1 seed.  That doesn’t mean the Ravens won’t be dialed in like it’s a playoff game.

— Lamar Jackson will make his case for his second MVP over Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey. This season it’s more than just the raw stats, evading sacks and extending plays and turning what would be sacks into positive plays down the field. Jackson will have 250 passing yards  with two touchdown passes and 75 rushing yards.

— Gus Edwards will find the end zone with one rushing touchdown and 80 rushing yards.

— Isaiah Likely continues to shine in Mark Andrews place with a touchdown reception and 60 yards.

— Rashod Bateman will be the recipient of a touchdown pass along with key first down catches for 50 yards.

— Mike MacDonald will make his case for a head coaching job next year in slowing down a potent 49ers offense. Two of the 49ers losses have come from the AFC North opponents, Browns and Bengals. In those two games they were held to 17 points in both games. MacDonald will see to it they’re held to fewer than that.

— Kyle Hamilton will have a sack, tackle for loss and a pass defensed.

— Justin Madubuike will break the sack streak record, making it 12 straight games for at least a half sack.

Ravens 17 49ers 13

Nick Polinsky

This is perhaps the biggest present football fans will receive on Christmas. The clear cut best of the best from each conference face off in a heavyweight matchup.

This game also brings together the two best inside linebacker corps in the league. Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen for Baltimore as well as Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw for the 49ers are big reasons why their respective defensive units have been so good, but both of these groups will be challenged by the dynamic opposing offenses.

The most important matchup for Baltimore will be holding down the 49ers pass rush. Ravens’ tackle play has been shaky and they’re now challenged with Nick Bosa and Chase Young.

When everyone saw this game on the schedule, most knew it would have a major atmosphere, but expectations may have still been passed with both teams entering at 11-3.

— Justin Madubuike will set the NFL record for most consecutive games with a half sack after tying it last week against Jacksonville.

— I think we see a season high in Lamar Jackson rushing attempts. He will have more designed carries than usual against a very tough front seven for the running backs, and the 49ers pass rush is likely to flush him out of the pocket resulting in additional scrambles.

I made a score prediction for this game before the year began, and I’m sticking to it.

Ravens 23 49ers 20