NFL’s Best on Best as Ravens Take on 49ers

RSR’s Nikhil Mehta & Dev Panchwagh are tag-teaming Battle Plans for the 2023 season.

Defense

Calm Before the Storm

Like any great offense – and the Niners are on the path of a historically great offense at this point – there is a lot for a defense to process before the snap and after. Head coach Kyle Shanahan is hailed as one of the great offensive minds in the NFL, and for good reason. He has a unique knack for giving a defense multiple moves to chew on at once.

Take for example how he likes to use misdirection and run multiple plays at once. For instance, a defense could be facing fake screen action to one side while there is a dump off to Christian McCaffrey (CMC) going the other way. In the running game, CMC might get the handoff or a toss while receiver Deebo Samuel is pulling the defense in the opposite direction on a fake jet or fly sweep.

Shanahan can stress a defense horizontally and vertically. That is how much firepower he has at his disposal.

A critical key to this game for the defense will be to sift through the noise and stay gap and assignment sound. Eye discipline will also be of distinct importance. If, for example, the weak side backer has a certain assignment, he can’t try to do the job of the strong side backer to make a play. They’ll have to be on top of their keys.

The other side of this is not getting sucked too far upfield to stop CMC in the running game. The backers will need to balance playing run but not also leaving the middle of the field wide open on their drops.

Shanahan is particularly good at play sequencing, within both a single drive and a full game. He uses motion not just to help his quarterback diagnose defenses, but also to lull defenders into expecting certain patterns as the game goes on. The Ravens’ defense – especially their linebackers and slot defenders – will have to avoid overreacting to the 49ers’ motion, not just to protect their coverage assignments, but to keep Shanahan from setting up his explosive counterpunches in the second half.

Challenge the SF Pass Catchers

This game is all about breaking tendencies. You can’t play it safe against the Niners. You have to be willing to play man coverage, take some chances and change the timing against quarterback Brock Purdy.

The Ravens are one of the few teams that have the personnel to match up against the San Francisco receivers and tight end George Kittle across the board. And they have dudes that will use their hands, and who can jam and play physically at the line. Case in point: the way cornerback Brandon Stephens consistently clamped down on receivers Zay Jones and Calvin Ridley against Jacksonville. He was all about the bump and run coverage, and it wasn’t the first time. Stephens dominated Ja’Marr Chase using primarily press coverage previously this season, and he’s earned the right to test his mettle against the likes of Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.

If press coverage can force Purdy to hold onto the ball for even a fraction of a second longer, it can make a difference. The challenge should also extend to the blitz game, where the Ravens should mix in six-man rushes and extend their blitzes beyond four and five-man sim pressures.

The 49ers have shredded the blitz this season, generating 0.42 EPA/play (1st in the NFL) and a 21.90% explosive play rate (3rd). For all of the discourse and debate around Purdy’s MVP candidacy, he has been excellent at handling pressure behind a suspect right side of his offensive line. That’s why the free releases and zone looks aren’t going to always be as effective.

But almost all of that success has come against five rushers, as opposing defenses have been loath to send six rushers at Purdy, something that has happened just 11 times this year. When they have, though, the 49ers’ stats drop to a pedestrian -0.17 EPA/play (18th), and a 9.09% explosive play rate (28th) that is a complete outlier compared to the rest of their splits.

Against this offense, it’s not enough to force the ball out quickly; the pressure has to get home. Every once in a while, you need to put your DBs in a spot to win the matchup and force Purdy to hold the ball a tick longer. It’s very similar to the times defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald needs to mix up press man looks against Joe Burrow.

The Ravens’ blitz rate on early downs is in the bottom-five in the league, but they can get the 49ers behind the sticks by bucking that trend. Instead of giving Shanahan the opportunity to set up easily-convertible second and third downs, Macdonald should go on the offensive and force Purdy to live up to his MVP hype.

Mirror the Niners’ Speed

The 49ers pace the league in EPA/play vs. base and nickel defensive personnel, but they fall to 17th vs. dime, with a -0.32 EPA/rush that ranks 24th. Baltimore hasn’t used six DBs all year, but they can still combine their versatile personnel with the philosophical intentions of dime to combat San Francisco’s ability to attack the entire field.

Adding defensive backs typically prioritizes pass coverage, but they have been used to counter dynamic run/pass attacks that stress the entire field. (See, regrettably, the Ravens’ 2018-19 playoff loss to the Chargers.)

Roquan Smith, Patrick Queen and Kyle Hamilton are the rare trio with the requisite lateral speed to defend the run and the pass sideline-to-sideline against the 49ers, who have been at their best attacking the outside on the ground and through the air. They don’t just have some of the most dangerous ballcarriers in the league; they also have an offensive coordinator who knows how to scheme them into open space against defensive backs ill-equipped to tackle them.

While there’s no doubting the effort and physicality of the Ravens’ CBs, this defense tackles best when Smith, Queen and/or Hamilton rally to the ball. Giving them some formational width will put them in a better position to defend against the stretches, sweeps and screens that have devastated the 49ers opponents thus far this year.

Offense

Operate from Heavy

The San Francisco defense is just as tricky to deal with as the offense. They have a dynamic front seven and it is ignited by its ferocious pass rush. If you are to even have a fighting chance, you need to figure out a way to handle this group – or more realisticly, slow them down.

Baltimore has had their ups and downs with their pass protection. Last week against Jacksonville, there were times when it was probably a bit better than it might have seemed, especially given how long quarterback Lamar Jackson held the ball at times. But there were also times when the line, particularly the tackles, simply got it handed to them. Against Nick Bosa and Chase Young, that’s liable to happen again.

When the Ravens operated from base and heavy formations with a combination of two tight ends or Patrick Ricard, it seemed to settle down the pass rush from Jacksonville and it enabled offensive coordinator Todd Monken to exploit the linebackers in coverage. Tight ends Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar in particular were able to get loose on seam routes.

San Francisco has faced 21 personnel just 10 times this year, which has been the Ravens’ most consistently-effective unit. Baltimore’s 0.17 EPA/play, 0.34 EPA/pass and 0.06 EPA/rush lead all teams with at least 50 plays out of 21.

Using more condensed looks, giving the appearance of run from these heavy sets (and by the way also straight up running the ball) will be important to keep the Niner pass rush from simplifying rushing the quarterback with abandon.

Stay on Schedule

Getting back to Jackson holding the ball more often – that can’t really happen as frequently against San Francisco. Ultimately, Jackson is going to do what he’s going to do. He’s an improv artist by nature and his unpredictability is what makes him so unique on the football field. However, it will be important for him to play disciplined within all that trademark freestyling.

Releasing the ball fairly quickly and making sure the offense remains on schedule, especially on early downs, will be especially imperative to avoid third-and-obvious. What Monken can do to help Jackson is to give him more motion-based releases before the snap so the receivers are open quickly. Moving the pocket is also a way to not only create a moving target for the pass rush, but to again give Lamar some structure to get rid of the ball on time.

Monken can also use his tight ends to chip and release more often, building in extra pass protection and checkdown options for Jackson. This also leans into Jackson’s improv abilities by giving him the option to manipulate QB spies and flat defenders later in the play.

Recall those triple-option RPOs from earlier this season that saw Jackson fake a handoff and force a defender to choose between giving him an easy completion or room to run. Those are great when schemed-up, but Jackson can stress defenders in the same way on the fly. Having a running back or tight end release into space later in a play makes sure that Jackson’s ability to extend plays is a feature of the offense, not a bug.

Spread Out the Defense

Even after losing Keaton Mitchell for the season last week, the Ravens should be planning to spread out the 49ers’ defense on the ground to open up more passing lanes as the game goes on.

Entering Week 16, San Francisco ranks second-worst in the NFL in EPA/rush allowed vs. 11 personnel and while in nickel personnel, despite employing the only linebacker duo that holds a candle to the Ravens’ elite Smith-Queen combo in Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw.

When the 49ers are in nickel, Warner and Greenlaw take on huge responsibilities to both cover the middle of the field and rally against runs and quick passes to the outside. San Fran’s cornerbacks rely on their fearsome front seven to get pressure and protect the middle of the field, working mostly in sideline zones.

The Ravens should attack the edges of the field with jet motion, screens and passes into the flat (particularly to Isaiah Likely, where he’s shown a knack for YAC) to force the Niners’ cornerbacks to make stops or draw the linebackers out of the middle of the field. Depending on which poison San Francisco picks, Monken can then dial up concepts that attack the resultant soft spots over the middle or along the sidelines.

One on One Matchup (+1)

Kyle Hamilton versus the 49ers Playmakers

It’s no secret that safety Kyle Hamilton is the secret sauce for Mike Macdonald. Ahead of a matchup hailed as a Super Bowl preview, the second-year safety has been given top billing by national analysts, even while he plays on a team with Lamar Jackson, Roquan Smith and Odell Beckham Jr. When Kyle Shanahan is gameplanning against an opposing 22-year-old, he’s a special football player.

The small-forward posing as an NFL safety is the ultimate eraser and he can line up anywhere. We simply have not seen versatility like this since linebacker Adalius Thomas, who played every position other than MIKE backer (and for good reason when 52 was here).

In a game featuring elite weapons like CMC, Deebo and Kittle, who stress you out in the open and across the middle of the field, Hamilton’s ability to cover ground and defend multiple offensive concepts will be put to the test. His performance against the Chargers comes to mind, when Hamilton shut down a RB screen and matched a wideout step-for-step downfield on back-to-back plays.

But Hamilton won’t be facing the Chargers’ backups on Monday night; he’ll be facing the best set of ballcarriers in the NFL. His star/overhang role will be crucial to every-down run defense, especially taking on blocks and holding the edge, as well as sniffing out and disrupting some of Shanahan’s more exotic designer plays for Deebo and CMC. As if that’s not enough, he’ll be tasked with some of the game’s toughest coverage assignments, whether it’s carrying Kittle up the seam or shadowing Deebo out of the slot.

Even Hamilton’s extraordinary combination of athleticism, physicality and football I.Q. will have to be firing on all cylinders to detect, diagnose and destroy however Shanahan throws the 49ers’ playmakers at him.

All stats entering Week 16.

All advanced stats courtesy of Pro Football Focus, Sumer Sports and Arjun Menon’s The Scout.