As we approach the most important game of the regular season with the Dolphins coming to town, injuries will play a big part in what happens. While the Ravens are probably the one of the healthiest team in the AFC right now, they have some key injuries going into this game.
Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton was on field at practice, but he was mostly observing.
WR Zay Flowers (calf), LB Del’Shawn Phillips, CBs Brandon Stephens and Jalyn Armour-Davis (concussion) were NOT practicing. pic.twitter.com/Ryrjs3GjBY— Jeff Zrebiec (@jeffzrebiec) December 28, 2023
Kyle Hamilton described his injury as “Day to Day,” but it is still unknown if he plays. Zay Flowers is a big one, but he did play last week after missing practice all week. Brandon Stephens would also be a big loss. Outside of these absences, the Ravens also had some upgrades. Getting Kevin Zeitler back was huge, and even though Roquan Smith was seen with a brace, he says he is playing.
Of course, the Ravens aren’t the only team dealing with injuries:
Dolphins’ WR Jaylen Waddle isn’t expected to play Sunday vs the Ravens, sources tell @AdamSchefter https://t.co/l4cv2YM2Hy
— Marcel Louis-Jacques (@Marcel_LJ) December 28, 2023
Jaylen Waddle is a big loss for the Dolphins. He changes the passing game so much when teams start to focus on stopping Tyreek Hill and the running game. They do have depth, but no one can replace Waddle’s speed. Add the fact that Waddle destroyed this secondary last year, and his absence is a massive plus for the Ravens.
Enough about injuries. One of the things about this game is that the Ravens are facing a team with a system similar to the Niners. Taking what we learned from that game will help to stop another explosive offense:
Tua Tagovailoa when pressured:
41.8%
2 TD 2 INT
5.7 YPAwhen not pressured:
77.6%
24 TD 8 INT
9.4 YPA— Spencer Schultz (@ravens4dummies) December 28, 2023
The Ravens’ defense pressured Brock Purdy on most of his dropbacks and confused him. This is what led to the turnovers, not pure luck. Every quarterback is worse under pressure, but Tua’s numbers get nearly sliced in half. Teams are afraid to blitz the Dolphins because it means fewer men back to cover Hill and Waddle, but with no Waddle and a hobbled Hill, the pressure will be there.
This game is interesting because Tua has a stat that reveals a lot about the Dolphins’ offense.
The most interesting thing here is that Tua has the quickest release (2.8s) on deep balls in the league. There are only four QB’s under 3.0s, he’s the only under 2.9s.
The Dolphins pass game is entirely built around being on time. They use motion, like the Rams and Niners, to… https://t.co/ZHDRI0IPBZ
— Spencer Schultz (@ravens4dummies) December 28, 2023
The Dolphins offense doesn’t make Tua think a ton. If the deep shot is open, let it rip. If it isn’t, then check down. This is what makes that offense tick, but as Spenny says above, if the timing isn’t there, then that is when the offense falls apart. The Ravens have been great at disrupting the timing of opponents and putting the pressure on quarterbacks. This is the problem with Tua. He needs to play in time and on rhythm, and if the Ravens don’t allow that, they should be in good shape.
The last point about the Dolphins’ offense is their love of play-action shots:
Tua runs the third highest rate of play action among qualified passers. The Ravens are among the top teams in the NFL against play action. https://t.co/G8KTC8TcKC
— Spencer Schultz (@ravens4dummies) December 28, 2023
The play-action is how the Dolphins get their deep ball game going. It works because of the speed on the field, and it gets teams to over-commit. This is why the Dolphins offense has been inconsistent, however. When teams play what is in front of you and don’t over-commit, there isn’t much else to offer.
All of this is to say that the Dolphins are tough, but they have weaknesses that match up well with the Raven’s strengths. The Miami offense is scary, but Baltimore has the talent to stop it and earn the #1 seed in the AFC.
