RSR Predictions: The Texans Are Coming

Producing the NFL’s best record (13-4), the 2023 AFC North Champion Baltimore Ravens earned a No. 1 playoff seed and now host the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round (Saturday, January 20, 4:30 p.m.).

The Ravens clinched the AFC’s top postseason spot for the second time (2019) in franchise history. The 2023 campaign also marked Baltimore’s first division title since 2019, and the 5th (2011-12, 2018-19) under head coach John Harbaugh.

Baltimore tallied an NFL-record 10 wins vs. teams that finished with a winning record, and they posted six wins over playoff teams. The Ravens ranked No. 1 in the NFL in both point differential (+203) and turnover margin (+12, tied w/ NYG). The Ravens have squared off against three of the other seven teams still standing this season (including the Texans), winning all three contests by the combined score of 96-34.

The Ravens are currently listed as 9 ½ point favorites with the over/under set at 43 ½. The forecast at kickoff calls for temps of 24 degrees, winds of 20 mph gusting to 37 mph, producing a wind chill of 4 degrees. Dress appropriately #RavensFlock!

 

Tony Lombardi

Suddenly, on the heels of rookie C.J. Stroud’s accomplishments, the Texans have become the nation’s darlings. And while that’s a nice story to tell around a toasty fireplace, the Texans are about to write the final chapter of their 2023 season.

The last time the Texans faced division leaders, Tampa on November 5 and (at the time) Jacksonville on November 26, they lost both games by the scores of 39-37 and 24-21, respectively. They did beat a solid Cleveland Browns team in resounding fashion in the wildcard round but let’s be honest, the Browns defense down the home stretch wasn’t nearly as stout as it had been earlier in the campaign. Since December, covering 7 games, the Browns allowed 317.4 yards per game while playing teams like the Bears, Jets and the Burrow-less Bengals. So, color me unimpressed by the Texans 324-yard output against the Browns at home in the comfort of their climate controlled dome.

Cue it up Willie. On Saturday, the party’s over for the Texans.

Weather conditions will challenge the Ravens offensive output a tad, but Mother Nature won’t prevent a fast start from Lamar Jackson & Co.

• During his previous four postseason starts, Lamar has failed to lead his team to a single point in the first quarter. That changes quickly on Saturday as the Ravens take a commanding 14-0 lead in the first frame.

• Lamar Jackson will throw for 250 yards, half of which will come in the form of YAC. He will have 3 scoring tosses, one each to Zay Flowers, OBJ and Mark Andrews. Lamar will add another 60 yards by ground including a score from 15+ yards out.

• Dalvin Cook makes his Ravens debut and he’ll run for 60 yards on 12 carries. One of which will be an explosive run of 25+ yards. Gus Edwards and Justice Hill chip in with another 50 yards.

• The Ravens offense finishes with 420 net yards.

• The last time the Ravens faced Stroud, they sacked the rookie QB five times. The Ravens defense won’t drop a nickel on C.J. this time but the crowd noise will be a factor and create pre and post-snap confusion for the Texans’ 22-year-old signal caller. The Ravens register four sacks (Hamilton, Madubuike, Van Noy and Queen) but they’ll harass Stroud throughout as the Texans will be forced to play catch up and ask Stroud to drop back 45 times.

• The Ravens register two INT’s, one by Roquan Smith following a tipped pass by Kyle Hamilton and the other when Stroud tries to go long distance to Nico Collins only to be intercepted by Marcus Williams.

We are off to the AFC Championship Flockers!

Ravens 34, Texans 14

[Remembering a Man Instrumental in the Creation of Festivus Maximus]

Kevin McNelis

After what feels like an eternity, Baltimore is back this Saturday. The Ravens begin the quartet of games for the weekend right back where it started in Week 1, at home against the Texans. Both teams look significantly different than they did in that clash, so how differently will this one play out?

— With the vast majority of their starters back, the Ravens look like the version of themselves we’ve seen over the last few weeks, particularly on defense. Baltimore’s D forces multiple turnovers in the first half and limits the Texans to just three points in the first quarter.

— Offensively, some rust will show, and the first two Baltimore possessions end in field goals. That doesn’t last, though, as Lamar Jackson falls into a rhythm as the game progresses and notches three all-purpose touchdowns.

— The Texans offense will show that they’ve still got teeth despite being down a few key players. Nico Collins exceeds 75 yards on the day, but the ground game is largely clamped. When the Ravens begin to pull away, the Texans shift to the air attack, made tougher in the cold, and it results in multiple drives ending up in turnovers on downs.

Ravens 34 Texans 20

Darin McCann

This is incredibly reckless, and I get it. I’m opening myself up for abuse.

Again.

Still, I just feel like the Ravens win this game pretty handily. Yes, the Texans looked outstanding last week against a very tough Browns team. Yes, Stroud is good. Yes, I love their head coach. All of these things are true.

But the Ravens are better. They rank first in DVOA — top-four in offense, defense and special teams. The Texans rank, respectively, 12th overall, 14th in offense, 16th in defense and seventh in special teams. The Ravens went 13-4 this year. The Texans, 10-7. The Ravens are better.

Here are some predictions:

• Lamar Jackson will produce more than 325 yards and three touchdowns in his breakout playoff appearance.
• Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman will each have touchdown catches longer than 30 yards.
• Kyle Hamilton has himself a day — 10-plus tackles and a pick.
• Odafe Oweh has two sacks.

 

Ravens 34 Texans 16

Rob Shields

The Ravens are in a great spot. They are rested, relatively healthy, clearly the better team and are at home.

However, this is also a team that hasn’t had much playoff success and is playing a team with nothing to lose and a QB playing at an elite level, whether he’s a rookie or not. Add that  that Marlon Humphrey is out and this game may not be an easy as we had hoped.

The weather could be a factor in terms of it being very cold and you would figure that would help the Ravens a lot, since Houston is used to warmer climate and dome games.

Of course, we all know Lamar hates the cold too and he has his own playoff demons he needs to conquer.

Ultimately, I think the Ravens just be too much for Houston but this game could be a little closer than maybe it looks on paper.

Look for the Ravens to run the ball a lot in this one although Houston has been pretty good against the run this year. Houston was poor against the pass but the cold could negate that some. Houston has been getting after the QB and the Baltimore tackles have struggled against speed rushers at times this year.

I’ll take the Ravens.

Ravens 27 Texans 17

Derek Arnold

Maybe I’m a fool, but…

I believe. I believe in this team. I believe the picture DVOA paints, about the Ravens being one of the best teams in NFL history. I believe in the chip on Lamar Jackson’s shoulder. I believe in Postseason OBJ, in the talent of Zay Flowers and Isaiah Likely, and that Dalvin Cook has more in the tank, and something to prove.

I believe in the leadership that Roquan Smith has brought to this defense, which is stock full of playmakers. I believe in the veteran presence of two-time Super Bowl Champion Kyle Van Noy, in the alien that is Kyle Hamilton, and in the ability of guys like Arthur Maulet and Ronald Darby to step up in Marlon’s absence.

I believe that the demons of 2019 will be exorcised, and that Baltimore will host the AFC Championship for the first time since 1970.

I believe…that we will win.

Ravens 34 Texans 13

Jared Pinder

This season started with the Texans at M&T Bank Stadium, so this is only fitting. This Texans team is really hot right now, and it will take a near-perfect performance from the Ravens to stifle them. C.J. Stroud was on one last week against the Browns, but going back and looking, the majority of the big plays were due to broken coverages. That is something that shouldn’t happen in Baltimore.

This game will come down to whether Baltimore can lock in; we have seen this story before, and getting to the AFC Championship game is a must. This team is clearly better than the 2019 team, and I have more faith in our coordinators than I did in 2019.

Still, this is the most important game in a while for this franchise, and if they don’t win, the repercussions will be massive because we might lose both coordinators and a bunch of talented free agents.

— Lamar throws for at least three touchdowns.

– The running game is stifled a bit, but Gus still gets to over 80 yards.

– Stroud does make his plays, but without those broken coverages he will struggle more than he did against the Browns.

Ravens 34 Texans 21

Chad Racine

The Texans look to be getting hot at the right time. The Browns defense is tough but C.J. Stroud carved them up. The Texans also hit big with Will Anderson, the pick at number 3 overall right behind Stroud. Nico Collins will have to be the one contained and the Ravens have the unit to do it.

— Lamar will show what he’s capable of in the playoffs this time around. He will pass for just under 250 yards with two touchdown passes and rush for 70 yards.

— Gus Edwards will be the hammer in this cold, wearing down the defense and rushing for 60 yards and a touchdown.

— Isaiah Likely and Odell Beckham will be the recipients of the two touchdown passes.

— Kyle Hamilton will be the star on defense returning healthy with a sack and an interception.

— Justin Madubuike keeps on making plays in the playoffs with another sack and forced fumble.

— Travis Jones will make his presence felt with two quarterback hits but no sack.

Ravens 27 Texans 17

Nick Polinsky

After three weeks without meaningful football that felt like three months, the Ravens are back and they come back fresh. The injury reports are almost completely clean, with the exception of Marlon Humphrey. Zay Flowers is expected back, and Mark Andrews may potentially make an unexpected return nine weeks removed from his major ankle injury.

C.J. Stroud has had an electric rookie year, and he showed his talent last week against the Browns in the wild card. Stroud has the poise of a veteran, and the ability to catapult footballs with pinpoint accuracy downfield. His favorite target has been Nico Collins, who has had his breakout season this year and caught one of Stroud’s three touchdowns last week. It’ll be up to guys like Brandon Stephens to control Stroud and the Texans’ passing offense and end Houston’s season in the same stadium it began.

— Jadeveon Clowney will pick up a sack against the organization that drafted him first overall in the 2014 Draft.

— The Ravens signed Odell Beckham Jr. thinking that he would be the guy to come through for this offense in the winter months late in the season. OBJ will catch a touchdown this week.

— Stroud threw just five interceptions all year, but in the extreme cold, he’ll surrender one this week to Kyle Hamilton.

— This is where Houston’s road comes to an end, in the same place it started.

Ravens 31 Texans 17

Tanner George

The wait is almost over.

If you’re like me, the past three weeks have been excruciating. It’s been nearly a month since the Ravens’ starters have played, which has allowed my mind to make up all sorts of scenarios as to why they might fail. Rust. Past failure. A surprising Texans team that has the same mentality as the 2019 Titans.

But this team is laser-focused and ready to rock and roll.

As much as I hate to say it, this game falls on the shoulders of Lamar Jackson. He’ll be the first to tell you that he hasn’t played well in his first four playoff matchups, but I’m confident that this year is different. The 2019 Ravens had a far worse defense than the 2023 edition of the team, and the pass-catching talent isn’t even comparable. Add in the fact that Houston has a bottom-third pass defense, and the offense should jell. Lamar doesn’t have to do anything spectacular to win this game—just play clean, efficient football and the Ravens should be on their way to the AFC Championship.

On the defensive side of the ball, as noted by RSR’s Cole Jackson, a Cover 4 look should do the trick to limit Stroud and an explosive Houston offense. This is very much a well-oiled unit that’s been playing lights-out ball all season. They haven’t given up many explosive plays, forcing opponents to earn it instead. Not to discredit the Texans, but the way they put up points against the Browns just won’t fly in Baltimore:

• 15 yard TD pass to the WR1 (okay, I can see that one happening)
• 76 yard TD pass to the TE2 (have you met Ro and PQ?)
• 37 yard TD pass to the TE1 (again, have you met our linebackers?)
• 82 yard pick-six (Lamar’s only thrown one in his career)
• 36 yard pick-six (Lamar hasn’t thrown an INT since December 17th)
• 19 yard TD run by the RB1 (Justin Madubuike’s a hard man to move)

 

You can count me in as skeptical. But by no means do I take the Texans lightly.

This Ravens team is hungry and should come out firing on all cylinders. This should be a fun one, hopefully ending with a ticket to the AFC Championship.

Ravens 34 Texans 17

Chris Schisler

This could be the best Ravens team ever. The Ravens should win this game. This is one where they have no excuses. They are the better team. The Texans are good, but they are a year or two away from being a championship-caliber squad. Give me the most balanced team in football. Give me the Ravens to advance.

The first game doesn’t matter. The season opener was forever ago, and both teams are in a very different place. The Ravens beat the Texans in Week 1 but were sluggish on offense. The way Lamar Jackson is playing makes me feel like the Texans won’t have an answer for him.

— Lamar Jackson breaks a 50-yard touchdown run. He’s been saving it for the playoffs.

— Zay Flowers has two touchdown grabs.

— Roquan Smith has a sack and a pick

— Stroud only turns it over once but is sacked seven times.

Ravens 31 Texans 20