While Postseason Aspirations Go Down in Flames
We’re all frustrated. Some, even angry.
We want to blame somebody for the Ravens playoff inadequacies.
And that’s understandable.
That’s what you get when expectations are high, and achievement falls short. And unfortunately, this is a familiar pattern with the Baltimore Ravens, particularly in the postseason.
For all the good John Harbaugh does for the Ravens organization since 2012, his teams consistently fall short in the biggest games. Since Super Bowl XLVII, the Ravens are (3-6) in the postseason. And perhaps the most frustrating thing during this postseason stretch, the Ravens, inexplicably, get away from the things that they do best – the things that got them to the playoffs in the first place.
Wildcard Game: Ravens v. Chargers: January 6, 2019
Let’s dial it back to the 2018 season, Lamar Jackson’s rookie season and his first appearance in the postseason. The Ravens faced the Chargers at home as 3-point favorites. During that season, Baltimore ranked second in the league in rushing with 2,441 yards, averaging 4.5 YPC. The ground attack was their meal ticket to the playoffs.
Marty Mornhinweg was the team’s offensive coordinator and instead of sticking to their strength against the Chargers, the Ravens opted to prove a point and attack with a pass-heavy approach. Baltimore was down 12-0 at halftime and eventually lost 23-17. Here’s how the play calling unfolded during the game:
• The Ravens had 24 offensive snaps in the first half; 13 run calls produced 26 yards; 11 passing plays produced 43 yards however, 32 of those yards were the result of 2 Lamar scrambles.
• In the second half the Ravens called a total of 6 designed running plays that produced 17 yards plus Lamar’s two scrambles totaling 15 yards. The Ravens threw it 21 times, but when you add in the sacks (6) and the scrambles (2), of the 35 second half snaps, 29 were designed pass plays.
• Add it up and Mornhinweg called 40 pass plays and 19 runs (67.8% to 32.2%)
Final Score: Chargers 23, Ravens 17
Divisional Game: Ravens v. Titans: January 11, 2020
The Ravens had a stellar (14-2) season and they were riding a 12-game winning streak to finish as the AFC’s No. 1 seed. The Ravens were 10-point favorites in this Divisional Game led by Lamar, the league’s unanimous MVP. Baltimore ranked first in the league in rushing with 3,296 yards, averaging 5.5 YPC. Once again, the rushing game propelled the season.
This time around, the new OC was Greg Roman and his offense, relative to the rest of the league, was like an orange in a barrel of apples. But the orange stuggled, and the Ravens fell behind 14-0, although they lead 14-6 by halftime.
• The Ravens had 40 offensive snaps in the first half; 13 run calls producing 51 yards; 27 passing plays producing 165 yards however, 10 of those yards were the result of 3 Lamar scrambles.
• In the second half the Ravens called a total of 8 designed running plays that produced 55 yards plus Lamar’s 5 scrambles totaling 69 yards. They threw it 37 times but when you factor in the sacks (2) and the scrambles (5), of the 52 second half snaps, 44 were designed pass plays.
• Add it up and Roman called 71 pass plays and 21 runs. (77.2% to 22.8%)
Final Score: Titans 28, Ravens 12
Wildcard Game: Ravens at Titans: January 10, 2021
As the conference’s 5th seed, the (11-5) Ravens traveled to Nashville to take on the (11-5) Titans as 3 ½ point road favorites. Greg Roman was still at the offensive controls. Baltimore ranked first in the league in rushing with 3,071 yards, averaging 5.5 YPC.
The Ravens fell behind 10-0 in the first quarter but by halftime, the Ravens knotted the score at 10.
• The Ravens had 31 offensive snaps in the first half; 15 run calls producing 57 yards; 16 passing plays producing 113 yards however, 48 of those yards were the result of a Lamar scramble for a TD.
• In the second half the Ravens called a total of 19 designed running plays that produced 131 yards. They threw it 13 times but when you add in the sacks (1), of the 33 second half snaps, 14 were designed pass plays.
• Add it up and Roman called 30 pass plays and 34 runs. (46.9% to 53.1%)
Final Score: Ravens 20, Titans 13
Divisional Game: Ravens at Bills: January 16, 2021
The Ravens visited Orchard Park, New York on a cold and blustery night with wind chills dropping to 25 degrees. The wind was a factor as Justin Tucker missed two field goals. The Ravens were 2 ½ point underdogs.
• The Ravens had 36 offensive snaps in the first half. Baltimore ran the ball 18 times for 77 yards before intermission. Eight of those yards can be attributed to 2 scrambles by Lamar. So, with the scrambles, 2 sacks and 16 pass attempts, Roman called 20 pass plays. The Ravens and Bills were tied at 3 at the half.
• In the second half the Ravens ran 37 plays, 26 of which were pass plays when including the 2 sacks and 3 scrambles for 38 yards. It’s important to note that Lamar was concussed at the end of the 3rd quarter and replaced by Tyler Huntley. The Ravens called 11 designed runs for 35 yards.
• Add it up and Roman called 46 pass plays and 27 runs. (63.0% to 37.0%)
Final Score: Bills 17, Ravens 3
NOTE: I’m going to skip by the Ravens Wildcard Game in Cincinnati last season (2022) since Huntley started for the injured Jackson which I’m sure all would agree, alters the schematic plot.
Divisional Game: Ravens v. Texans: January 20, 2024
Baltimore entered the game as 9 ½ point favorites and as the conference’s No. 1 seed.
• The Ravens had 31 offensive snaps in the first half. Baltimore ran the ball 17 times for 95 yards during the first two quarters. Twenty-five of those yards can be attributed to three scrambles by Lamar. So, with the scrambles, 3 sacks and 11 pass attempts, Todd Monken called 17 pass plays. The Ravens and Texans were tied at 10 at the half.
• In the second half the Ravens ran 36 plays, 11 of which were pass plays. There were no sacks or scrambles. Monken called 25 designed runs for 134 yards.
• Add it up and Monken called 28 pass plays and 39 runs. (41.8% to 58.2%)
Final Score: Ravens 34, Texans 10
AFC Championship Game: Ravens v. Chiefs, January 28, 2024
The Ravens entered the game as 4-point favorites over the defending World Champions. Baltimore ranked first in the league in rushing with 2,661 yards, averaging 4.9 YPC and they were fresh off a Divisional Round game against the Texans during which Lamar Jackson & Co. ran for 229 yards on 42 carries, averaging 5.5 YPC.
• The Ravens had 22 offensive snaps in the first half. Baltimore ran the ball 9 times for 46 yards in the first half. Two of those yards can be attributed to one scramble by Lamar. So, with that scramble, 1 sack and 12 pass attempts, Todd Monken called 14 pass plays. The Ravens trailed the Chiefs at half, 17-7.
• In the second half the Ravens ran 35 plays, 32 of which were pass plays, including 3 sacks and 4 scrambles for 27 yards. Monken called 3 designed runs for 8 yards. THREE!
• Add it up for the game, and Monken called 46 pass plays and 11 runs. (80.7% to 19.3%).
Final Score: Chiefs 17, Ravens 10
Recap
• Six games postseason games examined during which the Ravens went (2-4).
• During the two games won, the Ravens ran the ball an average of 55.7% of the time and won by 7 and 24 points.
• During the four games lost, the Ravens ran the ball an average of 28.4% of the time and lost by 6, 16, 14 and 7 points.
The Chiefs
Now I’m willing to concede that the flow of the game can influence play calling. If your team is down by three scores in the third quarter, maybe establishing the run isn’t in a team’s best interests. But that wasn’t the case against the Chiefs.
Ted Nguyen from The Athletic put together a great piece about the Ravens offensive play calling in the AFCCG. Nguyen uses the term EPA in his piece which refers to Expected Points Added, a measure of success which defines the value of each play by the effect it has on the offense’s likelihood to score.
Among the things he points out, and those that jumped out at me:
• The Chiefs in 2023 were 22nd in defensive success rate against the run.
• They were fourth-best in defensive EPA against the pass.
• Since 2022 (regular and playoffs), the Chiefs are the fifth-worst team in defensive EPA against designed quarterback runs and scrambles.
Sounds like something the Ravens could take advantage of, right?
As Nguyen opines:
“The Ravens needed to put big bodies on the field, they needed to run between the tackles, and they had to make Jackson a high-volume runner again. Instead, they used 11 personnel (1 back, 1 TE, 3 WRs) on 63.2 percent of snaps, their second-highest rate of the season. They only used 12 personnel (one back, two tight ends, two receivers) on six snaps (four in the first half). The Ravens running backs only carried the ball six times and Jackson only had two rushes on designed rushes.”
Why?
Why did the Ravens braintrust summarily dismiss the aspect of their offense that landed them in the AFCCG in the first place?
Ravens analyst Spencer Schultz observed that:
“The Ravens didn’t just abandon the run, they failed to utilize play-action against a defense that struggled to defend it this year. They ran play action only three times in the first half. Halfway through the third quarter they had four play-action passes.”
And then Spencer adds:
“On play-action, Jackson was 5-9 for 133 yards and a touchdown.”
Did the coaching staff panic because they were behind? Did they lose their composure? Their quarterback clearly did. You know, the one who is widely considered to be the league MVP. He was awful. More on that in a moment.
This game plan (and I use the word plan loosely), represents malfeasance on the part of Harbaugh and his staff. If you Google NFL Coaching Malpractice, this game should be at the top of your search. And it’s not as if this is the first time this has happened, as evidenced above. But it was the WORST time.
These “clever” attempts to throw a wrinkle at opponents by trying to become something they aren’t, have backfired on the Ravens in the playoffs, time and time again. The knee jerk reaction is to blame the play caller. But these kinds of postseason antics span several coordinators. Are Messrs. Cameron, Caldwell, Trestman, Mornhinweg, Roman and Monken to blame for the team’s failures or is it the common denominator – Harbaugh himself?
By the way, why did the Ravens sign Dalvin Cook?
I’m sure the 28-year-old, 4-time Pro Bowler is wondering the same right about now. He got the identical number of snaps as you and me during the AFCCG. ZERO!
And Gus Edwards, generally considered the Ravens north/south grind-it-out workhorse, was on the field for just 19 snaps and touched the ball all of four times, while Justice Hill was out there for 39 snaps. That sends a clear message and it may have even tipped Monken’s play-calling hand. I’m sure the Chiefs’ DC Steve Spagnuolo noticed.
How could he not?
All that being said, Harbaugh isn’t solely responsible for this postseason mess. Lamar needs to accept some of the blame as well.
A look at the All-22 shows just how terribly off he was at times, and like his coaches who seemed to panic with their play calling, Lamar was a deer in headlights behind center. He was fundamentally bankrupt. His short throws seemed guided and careless; he held the ball too long looking for chunk plays when plays to move the chains and sustain drives were available.
His game management was mind-numbing.
And there’s also the possibility, although I doubt that anyone would ever confirm this, that Lamar may have been responsible at least in part, for the woefully inadequate number of rushing attempts. He’s been given the freedom to check out of plays. Maybe at times he chose pass over run. He has the ability to lean in for the pass option at the RPO mesh point. Perhaps he threw instead of handing it off, or running it himself.
But at the end of the day, particularly during a conference championship, isn’t it fair to expect more from the Ravens $260M man?
This AFCCG at home was a huge opportunity wasted. It was a chance to drive home the winning run with the bases loaded and two outs in the bottom of the 9th, and instead, the Ravens struck out on three pitches right down the middle without taking the bat off their shoulder.
“You don’t want to lose like that,” Patrick Queen said as the Ravens cleaned out their lockers.
“Just too many opportunities that we had to be able to capitalize on, and we didn’t. That’s what stings the most, and that’s why it just takes so long to get over. You don’t get another chance until next season. We have to make our way there again, if we even get a chance. That’s why it hurts.”
Yes, it hurts.
And for a while, I was sad.
Now I’m just mad.
These opportunities are rare, unless of course you are the Kansas City Chiefs. Chances like this one might not pass by The Bank again. And now, we’re forced to live with that haunting thought, clinging to the hope that the opportunity will present itself one more time.
But nothing in the NFL is promised.
I recall after the Ravens lost to the Steelers in Pittsburgh earlier this season by the same score of 17-10, Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett discussed the game winning deep ball to George Pickens.
“[The Ravens] went [Cover] 0 and we were kind of preparing for it all week. In bigger moments, they’ll go 0, and we got the protection right. George ran his route and went up there and won. Big-time player, making plays in those moments, and that’s what we’ve got in [No.] 14.”
Translation, the Ravens panicked then just like they did on Championship Sunday.
Just like they consistently do when trailing in the second half.
The Ravens are 0-23 when trailing by 10+ points at halftime since 2013.
Every other team in the NFL has at least one comeback win after trailing by double-digits at half in that span. pic.twitter.com/PCeVhHMRpW
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) January 28, 2024
And after Sunday, the Ravens are now 0-24 in such situations.
So we turn our attention towards next season, and in doing so, I’m reminded of another heartbreaking defeat during the 2011 AFCCG in New England.
I think we could all still use a speech like this from the great @raylewis following the loss on Championship Sunday. pic.twitter.com/D2kg0SvdUP
— Tony Lombardi (@RSRLombardi) January 31, 2024
[Related Article: The Puzzle That is John Harbaugh]
The Ravens pulled it together after the Lee Evans and Billy Cundiff gaffes, and won it all the following season. But that team consisted of clutch performers and outstanding leaders. This Ravens team will lose several leaders to free agency and to the jagged edge of the salary cap.
All that aside, neither the Ravens head coach nor his franchise quarterback, are clutch in the postseason. And let’s not forget that even the veterans who were supposed to know better, took the cheese, fell into the trap of the Kansas City Chiefs and their well-orchestrated baiting tactics, and were flagged for personal fouls at the most inopportune of times.
So let’s just call Sunday what it was…a freaking choke job!
Harbaugh choked!
Monken choked!
And Lamar choked!
Everything was teed up for the Ravens to make a statement and all they did was shit the bed. Harbaugh lost control or never had any. Monken’s play calling powers were usurped at best, inept at worst. And Lamar Jackson, the probable regular season MVP, pretended to be something that he’s not — the prototypical pocket passer. His fantasy, to be an elite passer, played right into the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs.
Meanwhile, Harbaugh signed off on all of the pass-happy machismo!
Maybe the Ravens will get another chance. After all, they are regular season juggernauts! But unfortunately, their postseason resumes are reminiscent of star MLB players like Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriquez, Clayton Kershaw and Dave Winfield who excel during the regular season, but flop in October. The Ravens favorite flopping month is January.
Harbaugh and Jackson will both have to live with and suffer through the narrative, through the noise that awaits them should they return to postseason play. And until they get back to the Super Bowl, it won’t go away.
It will only get worse.
And they only have themselves to blame.
28 Responses
Very well said. I can’t believe their “game plan” was so terrible. You’d get the impression from Harbaugh that his team was tough-minded. The defense is. The offense chokes regardless of who the OC is. Trying to be something they’re CLEARLY not. All of Jackson’s deep sideline throws to Bateman or Algohor (sp) are a joke because they all wind up in the same place — the sidelines! All the “deep shots” Jackson takes are a joke. And to (I can’t say “abandon the run” since they never really used the run!) not utilize the running game WHICH IS YOUR BREAD N BUTTER is mind-boggling. They wasted a potentially seminal moment for Lamar and the team. I feel their “January offense” will continue to stay the same, regardless of whatever new WRs or RBs we bring in. Lamar can’t run away from people anymore, but he can certainly run — and to not utlilize that and stick with staying in the pocket was just plain idiotic. No quick hitters. Nothing to build momentum. It was just a matter of time till Lamar did his usual helmut throw.
Thank you Tony! You said what had to be said and what is self-evident from our ongoing litany of Groundhog Day playoff chokers.
0-24, wow that shows what a clutch team this is! Ed Reed used to say the Ravens were the team nobody wanted to face in the playoffs. Nobody fears this team now, we’re just a stepping stone to other teams on their way to the Super Bowl
Curious..how many years left on Harbs contract??
Harbaugh is under contract through 2025.
At Friday’s Presser we need to hear an apology to the players and fans for that offensive game plan.
Even RG3, who strongly defended Lamar, said Lamar should have run the ball 15 times vs the Chiefs! When Harbaugh says at halftime “we going to run the ball in the second half” and we don’t, it begs the question who overruled the HC?
Monken deserves the blame for a horrible game plan but did he really completely ignore the HC’s instuctions? l doubt any media guys will press Harbaugh to explain what “that’s just the way the game went” really means.
The beat reporters get beaten up (no pun intended) for not asking the tough question. From experience, I know that they’ve tried but he’ll only answer what he wants to answer. Harbaugh is pretty good at dodging bullets intended for him or anyone else in the organization. And so they stop asking, anticipating the brush off.
I think it’s obvious by now… We have 16 years of evidence. What you see is what you get. I’ve never been a big Harbaugh fan. He’s a good coach, but not great. And like you pointed out, he seems to get out coached regularly in these big games. There are any number of these kind of gut wrenching losses throughout the Harbaugh tenure, with the playoffs on the line, or actually in them. This is as good as it’s going to get with John. Competitive regular season’s, early playoff exits, no super bowl. If Bischotti is OK with that, then John isn’t going anywhere, because I think Steve has made it clear, he doesn’t like change.
VERY well said Tony! The other person who needs to answer for these continual shortcomings is the owner. In his desire to avoid change and have “continuity”, he seems to have become very complacent. Being competitive-but rarely elite-has become satisfactory to him as he sits in his box hanging out with buddies/former players. The fact that his customers-the incredibly loyal Raven fan base-never hear from him as we used to is frustrating. It appears that as long as the $$$ roll in he is fine sitting back and never having to make a difficult decision. It is far past time for Harbaugh to go. And I fear that in a year or two we will be regretting the albatross of the #8 contract. If his desire-as was apparent Sunday-is to become a pocket passer and not rely on what makes him a unicorn, then this contract will be crippling. Losing McDonald is a significant blow-for once we had a young, bright mind in the building instead of a retread from Harbaugh’s past. If the owner was engaged, he could see that it was time to move Harbaugh to a “consultant” role and give the reigns to McDonald. Unfortunately we will keep trying to prove Einstein wrong by doing the same thing over and over while expecting a different result.
During the 2018 season I was confident Harbaugh was gone. I’d seen enough of Flacco throwing for 9 yards when he needed 10 on 3rd down. I watched a game in Tennessee where the D sacked Mariotta 11 times and we still lost the game. Lamar saved him. Completely. And he looked like a genius because he let Lamar do what Lamar was good at it. That’s the narrative I built in my head.
The truth is that Harbs has no control over this team. He is the quintessential grandpa figure. He seems like a nice guy. But that’s not going to cut it. You have to have maternal instincts and still push discipline. Everyone runs all over this guy. The players (Marcus Peters, Bateman, Dobbins, Thomas). There’s admiration but zero respect. Its like this team is constantly looking at who is going to step up and lead. Because it sure as hell isn’t the head coach. We had something this year. An O and D coordinator who maintained discipline and lead. A bunch of veterans who were leaders.
We won’t have that next year. Because everyone wants the maternal grandpa guy as their leader until its time to accomplish things. Someone called us the Cowboys of the East. And that is so true from a QB that chokes on the gameplan to coordinators looking for a cohesive plan that works together. And it all leads back to Harbaugh. Its time for him to go.
I’d argue that if this was the time for John to go, then Bisciotti let the best candidate to replace him leave as well. Of course I’m referring to Mike Macdonald.
Appreciate your passion but one minor correction. That game during which the Ravens sacked Mariota 11 times was won by the Ravens, 21-0.
*Paternal
Tom Brady is unlikely to win with a game plan opposite of the strengths of his offense. Lamar should have played better. They only lost by 7 points. The one score game reveals a number of things would have swung the game. Ravens blew it from the top down.
Great piece Tony. Panic…that’s exactly what happened. Harbaugh, Monken, Lamar…they all panicked just like in 2019.
One thing that I find interesting is that Harbaugh is getting heavily criticized and mocked by the National news media. I don’t think that’s happened before…in the past, most criticism has been primarily local. I wonder how that is going over the at the Castle?
This article is perfect example why any reliable and true info I am finding only on RSR. Pure love about city and Ravens and deserved criticism when due.
I was planning to apologise to Harbs, Lamar, Stanley, Fruit punch in case of reaching SB for comments concerning responsibilities and underperformance (contract wise) but nasty Chiefs visited “Bank” and had easy win against by far superior opponent.
Yesterday my last hope that there will be some changes vanished in Seattle direction.
I won’t watch big game in 10 days hopefully my love and passion will be
restored by FA in March and culmination (in off-season category) will be on Draft day. Will see, never experienced such a misery including Billy ” I never cut nails on my kicking thumb” Cundiff projectile legendary night.
I feel for many players that gave everything, US – true fans (leaded by RSR trust of brains with integrity, some sharpe dudes from Bmore Sun, and ….Eric DeCosta – best GM in the league, and man who delivers.
Unlike his neighbour.
I think a strong smart Ricard SHOULD be utilized more in game plan as well🏈
He was born for every single 3 and 1 in this game. Even fourth and one with high stakes. Unutilised sine GRo departed with his vault.
Great point!
These observations of our playoff woes have been going on for years and nothing concrete has changed, I don’t expect any real change going forward.
Nice article but save yourself some time and clip and paste this article after our next playoff choke in 2025.
Sad but true… People can change, but will they? I think the die is pretty well cast at this point.
Tony, you’ve always supported Harbaugh, so this commentary had to be somewhat painful for you! Kudos for your objectivity! He’s a good person and has some obvious strengths as a coach, but HC is not one of them, particularly on game days and in the postseason where it counts most! Flacco made Harbaugh, not vice versa, and was lucky to have had to start him as a rookie in both their rookie seasons! The historical facts and performances support that opinion! For all his many athletic gifts, Lamar is not, nor will he ever be, a proficient, accurate pocket passer like his predecessor who, incidentally, still is at age 39! He’s by far more dangerous running than passing, but Harbaugh and/or Monken envision him as something he’s not! Facts may be inconvenient, but they don’t……lie! Unless or until changes are made at the top of coaching hierarchy, we will probably be having these conversations ad infinitum…..
Very nice article Tony, and here I thought for years you were just another Keith Mills type homer.
0-24 stat, we going to claim that is a coaching stat? Shanahan recently had a worse one than that. When you are down late in games, it’s much less about xs and os and more about the players on the field. That is why every all time great qb was great when it mattered in the fourth quarter.
In the end, this game came down to what every other Lamar playoff loss does, he can’t beat a stacked box.
Awesome. Truth. If Steve is happy you better just accept it. Nothing will change. Steve and Baughs drinking fine French wine on the Jupiter veranda as they say, “let em eat s…”
Solid Article here Tony…
I’m with most RavensFlock in that If not now then when? And it’s getting to the point where I don’t believe they’ll win another ring aslong as Harbaugh is the HC.
And that’s not excusing or taking blame off no.8s plate for a bad INT or anything. But Coaching matters more the deeper into playoffs& as shown in this article numerous historical times under Harbaugh and his OCs Ravens abandon their identity so quickly in big games. They treat a td or 10 point deficit like its 30. Instead of running the ball& smashing teams. Definition of PANIC and bad Coaching.
I just will never trust him unless he proves he can get over the hump without Ray,Ed etc.
I don’t think Mr. Bisciotti does anything on impulse so I am not surprised that he did not do what most of us would have preferred—hiring Mike MacD as head coach. I believe he did move on from Brian Billick the year after extending his contract, so I think a change is still possible during this offseason. He has to have been as mystified by the game plan as the rest of us. I remain hopeful that he will do something to fix it—but not holding my breath….
I can’t believe the Ravens let Macdonald walk out the door. SB could have upped his salary and told him that he will be the Ravens’ head coach in 2025 if he didn’t want to ax Harbaugh this year. I believe the Ravens will rue the day they let Macdonald leave the organization.
Harbaugh needed to go a long time ago. He is a figurehead-type, admin head who cannot take control of something awry and he knows it. In other words, he’s a politician — a fraud who is only liked because he is a pro at relationships and communicating what the media, his coaches, peers and owner want to hear. As a result of his talking gift, he massages fellow egos, as he did with his OCs over the years, including Monken’s fatal gameplan. But that’s just it — all talk. He gets credit where no credit is due. He does nothing to earn it. So the best thing all Ravens fans can do is lower expectations every season as long as he’s around.