July is nearly over, which means we’re about to be a month away from the 2024 NFL season and the sweet glory of fantasy football. With not much more than 30 days left to go, mock draft lobbies on every fantasy website are filling quicker by the day as managers start to prepare for what’s likely their mid-to-late August draft.
Preparing for a fantasy football draft can be challenging, especially the later you determine where you sit in the draft order. Frequently mock drafting from different positions in the order is an effective prep strategy, as this way you determine a sense of where players are consistently falling in different formats. (Just be sure to mock draft on the same website you plan to host your “real” draft on, since the default player rankings vastly differ across fantasy platforms).
Baltimore fans who participate in fantasy football find themselves in a convenient situation when selecting their rosters each year, as there are several Ravens who are considered “must-drafts” at their spots in the rankings. But this breed of fantasy manager must be cautious, as some current Ravens have a history of sitting above their value on the draft board only to become their team’s biggest bust each and every year (IYKYK).
In this early preview, I’ll break down the current average draft position (ADP) of Baltimore’s most relevant fantasy players and also provide some insight as to which Ravens you may want to monitor on the waiver wire at the start of the season.
(All fantasy-related statistics, including ADPs, are derived from FantasyPros.com).
Derrick Henry, RB
Consensus ADP: 24 (STD), 30 (PPR), 20 (Half-PPR)
King Henry is undoubtedly Baltimore’s biggest fantasy weapon headed into the 2024 season, ranked as high as the 19th best player on popular fantasy sites like ESPN. He should be considered a must-draft if you find yourself picking in the late second round or early-to-mid third round.
While no one has an exact idea of how Baltimore’s run game is going to look with the two-headed monster that is now Henry and Lamar Jackson, there’s no doubt that Henry’s potential ceiling is higher than last year when he finished with the second-most rushing yards of all running backs (only behind Christian McCaffrey), fifth-most rushing touchdowns (tied with Kyren Williams) and fifth-most fantasy points among running backs in standard format. Then when you consider how Todd Monken used Gus Edwards at the goal line last year, picking Henry really seems like a no-brainer.
In both PPR and half-PPR formats, Henry finished with the eighth-most fantasy points among running backs behind both Williams and Joe Mixon. Unless either Williams or Mixon are available in the late second round, Henry is the clear go-to pick if you prefer a running back early in formats like half-PPR or especially standard where rushing backs are favored over pass-catchers.
Lamar Jackson, QB
Consensus ADP: 41 (STD), 46 (PPR), 40 (Half-PPR)
I mean, who wouldn’t want to draft last year’s regular season MVP who finished with the fourth-most fantasy points among quarterbacks in all formats?
Seated in the third round of 12-team leagues and early fifth round of 10-team leagues, Lamar Jackson is in the top tier of fantasy quarterbacks surrounded by only Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes.
The route of drafting a quarterback early is often debated among fantasy managers because it’s simply a matter of personal preference. You can make the case for picking one early as easy as you can make the case for picking one late. Many even stream quarterbacks from week to week at the cost of falling to the bottom of the waiver wire (I don’t get it).
But Jackson’s placement in this year’s draft does allow you to land starting running backs and/or wide receivers with your first two picks, then you have the luxury of only having to change your quarterback during Baltimore’s week 14 bye. Jackson averaged 21 fantasy points per game last season in PPR— there’s not much more you can ask out of your quarterback, and there’s never a reason to bench him. Let’s call him a must-draft.
Mark Andrews, TE
Consensus ADP: 51 (STD), 50 (PPR), 48 (Half-PPR)
If there is one aspect of fantasy football that all managers can agree on, it’s that the tight end position has easily become the most shallow over the past few seasons. With Andrews missing the remainder of the 2023 regular season after injuring his ankle in Week 11, the top five tight ends in standard format were 1) Sam LaPorta, 2) George Kittle, 3) Travis Kelce, 4) T.J. Hockenson, and 5) David Njoku.
A significant drop off follows this top tier of tight ends, with a season-total of 150-120 fantasy points dropping to 110 and below. The point here: draft your tight end early.
Floating around pick No. 50 in all formats, Andrews currently finds himself getting drafted in the early fourth round of 12-team leagues and late fifth round of 10-team leagues. Considering he finished as 2022’s fifth-best TE in standard format (117 points), he is considered a must-draft player unless you’re fortunate enough to draft any of the other tight ends mentioned above (though maybe not Kelce or Hockenson).
Be warned, waiting for Andrews by that point in your draft is high-risk, high-reward. Yes, you can spend the first three or four rounds picking at other positions, but if you don’t nail down Andrews, you’re next-bests are likely Evan Engram (116 points in 2023), Taysom Hill (110 points), Cole Kmet (108 points) and Jake Ferguson (106 points).
Zay Flowers, WR
Consensus ADP: 53 (STD), 35 (PPR), 49 (Half-PPR)
Flowers is a player whose worth you really need to pin down ahead of your draft, considering his ADP is all over the place when looking at different formats. His value is highest in PPR at 34 but floats around 50 in standard and half-PPR.
Flowers’ target share in 2023 was greatly higher than his fellow Baltimore receivers, finishing with 108 targets over Odell Beckam Jr. (64), an unhealthy Mark Andrews (61), Rashod Bateman (56) and Nelson Agholor (45). Prior to Zay’s arrival, in 2022, Andrews led the corps with 113 targets, and his greatest competition was Demarcus Robinson who trailed by almost 40.
In the 10 games where Andrews and Flowers both played last season, Zay finished as the target leader six times, but Andrews still managed to finish with one more touchdown at the end of the regular season despite playing six fewer games. Flowers averaged 12.14 fantasy points per game in PPR; Andrews averaged 13.54.
Even when he isn’t scoring touchdowns, Flowers’ yardage and high target volume earn him enough points to serve as a solid WR2 or WR3 in PPR depending on the depth of your league. But five touchdowns on the entire season last year makes his value significantly lower in standard format and half-PPR.
In these formats, consider looking into other wide receivers around the same ADP, including Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, Christian Kirk and Terry McLaurin.
Rashod Bateman, WR
Consensus ADP: 195 (STD), 172 (PPR), 204 (Half-PPR)
Definitely not the bust candidate I was referring to in my introduction. Totally not. (Yes, that’s sarcasm).
It’s true, though. Rashod Bateman does not have a good track record in fantasy football, averaging a mere 3.3 fantasy points per game over his past three seasons.
The only upside for Bateman at this point in the preseason is that there has yet to be a replacement named for Beckham Jr. But with just one touchdown across 16 games last year, he looks most unappealing in half-PPR and standard formats.
At an ADP around 170 in PPR, Bateman finds himself seated early in the 15th round. Trying your luck on a rookie wouldn’t be a bad move there instead, as several year-ones certainly look to have higher ceilings than Bateman. My favorite candidates are Xavier Legette from Carolina and Ja’Lynn Polk from New England.
Potential early-season waiver wire pickups
Isaiah Likely, TE
Consensus ADP: 179 (STD), 184 (PPR), 167 (Half-PPR)
If you want No. 80 on your fantasy roster, know that he should only serve as a handcuff in the case that Andrews sees more injury time this season.
When both Andrews and Likely were healthy last season, Likely averaged 0.85 fantasy points (that’s right) in standard format between Weeks two and 11. But in Andrews’ absence, Likely’s average boosted to 11.64 points from weeks 14 to 18 when he raked in five touchdowns (tying with Flowers for second-most at the end of the regular season).
He’s not an impactful fantasy player while he’s TE2, but he serves as good injury insurance should you manage to draft Andrews in the fourth or fifth rounds.
Rasheen Ali, RB
Consensus ADP: 315 (STD), 244 (PPR), 306 (Half-PPR)
Keaton Mitchell’s recent transition to the “Physically Unable to Perform” (PUP) list will keep him out of Baltimore’s first four games— making Rasheen Ali an intriguing fantasy prospect ahead of this season. Consider what Mitchell made of his increased opportunities last season following the departure of J.K. Dobbins in Week 1. Only playing between Weeks 7 and 15, Mitchell averaged 10 fantasy points per game in PPR while still sharing snaps with Gus Edwards and Justice Hill.
Similar to Likely, Ali has the potential to boom his rookie year should injuries arise. He’s got the resume. In his 12 games at Marshall his senior year, his 15 touchdowns were the second-most in the Sun Belt Conference and his 1135 rushing yards were the fourth-most.
There’s no way Ali will outplay or outpace Henry by any means, but should injuries plague the running back corps this season, he makes for an interesting handcuff candidate should you have any other Baltimore RBs on your roster.
And if you happen to play in a dynasty league, he’s a must-draft given Henry’s age.
Nelson Agholor, WR
Consensus ADP: N/A (STD), 299 (PPR), N/A (Half-PPR)
Like other Ravens here, Nelson Agholor is really only relevant in PPR heading into this season, averaging not even five points in half-PPR or standard formats.
Agholor showed several glimmers of hope in PPR last season, having four finishes with over 10 fantasy points. His season-high came in week two in which he put up 17.3 points against Cincinnati after catching a 17-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter.
With Beckham Jr. out of the picture, Agholor sticks out on the front lines between Flowers and Bateman as the biggest deep threat on the offense. If Baltimore fails to bring in another receiver from outside the organization (looking at you Brandon Aiyuk), Agholor has great potential for more 10-plus finishes as a solid flex option.
My last but most important advice— consider that ADPs change all the time and will be slightly different from what they are now by the end of August. Consensus ADPs are only rough estimates of where players are falling across fantasy platforms, not where the player is going to be in YOUR draft.
And as I previously said, the best way to determine where players will rank in your draft is by mock drafting on the same website you’ll be using for the regular season. And by doing that often.
Good luck!
