Defense
Defuse The Explosives
The Ravens defense has nearly doubled their explosive pass rate allowed from last season, going from 10.5% in 2023 to 19.2% this year with a league-high 14 explosive passes allowed over the first two games. That was a key factor in Baltimore’s collapse against the Raiders, which saw Davante Adams and Brock Bowers catch two explosive passes each in the second half.
The Cowboys’ main explosive weapon is CeeDee Lamb, so the Ravens will need a specific gameplan to slow him down. To do that, they could turn to the advice of an old foe: Bill Belichick.
The former Patriots head coach appeared on the Manningcast on Monday night and explained how he would approach opposing pass offenses by putting Darrelle Revis on the WR2, doubling the WR1, and forcing teams to beat them with their tertiary options.
Baltimore should adopt a similar strategy by consistently providing safety help over the top on Lamb’s side of the field and forcing Prescott to target Brandin Cooks and Jake Ferguson.
That will help take away Lamb as a vertical threat, something the Saints did successfully in Week 2. Prescott was 0-3 with an interception when targeting Lamb on vertical routes against New Orleans, which hindered a Dallas passing game that lacks other downfield threats. (Lamb was responsible for a 65-yard catch-and-run touchdown last week, but a closer examination of the play shows that the Saints’ DBs should have tackled Lamb after he caught his 15-yard out, instead of running into each other.)
Dallas could counter double-coverage on Lamb by moving him into the slot, where he led the league with 2.7 yards per route run last year, though that figure has dropped to 1.2 YPRR this year. However, the Ravens’ have allowed the league’s second-highest success rate to opposing slot receivers so far (64.8%), largely with teams targeting Baltimore’s linebackers in coverage over the middle of the field.
Zach Orr has been willing to slide Marlon Humphrey into the slot, where he’s played 20% of his snaps this year as opposed to just 5% in 2023. He’s allowed three receptions on three targets in slot coverage for just 13 yards. The Ravens’ safeties will have to be ready to close down on crossing patterns and out routes to prevent Lamb from picking up yards after the catch from the slot.
Generate Pressure Vs. Spread
The Cowboys have used spread formations on a league-high 43% of snaps this year, partially due to a Week 1 injury to tight end Jake Ferguson. He’s trending to play in Week 3, but his limited participation at practice suggests that the Cowboys will keep some of their 10 personnel play call, which they ran 24% of the time in Week 2. Prescott has a -0.48 EPA per dropback out of spread formations, so the Ravens should have ample opportunity to force negative plays.
That will set up a lot of five-man protections for Orr to attack on Sunday, a matchup that plays into the Ravens’ pass-rushing strengths so far this season. Baltimore has generated just four pressures on their 13 blitzes this season, a steep drop from their 48.7% pressure rate on blitzes in 2023. That’s largely due to a lack of free rushers, with just one unblocked sack and five unblocked pressures on the year.
A majority of the Ravens’ pressure has come via winning 1-on-1 matchups, with Odafe Oweh, Travis Jones, Justin Madubuike, and Kyle Van Noy emerging as the team’s best four-man pass rush. They’ll have plenty of opportunities against the Cowboys’ spread offense, so Orr should focus on creating free rushers when calling blitzes.
One option is a Mike Macdonald classic: the slot blitz. There’s no statistic to quantify this, but pound-for-pound, the Ravens’ slot blitz over the past two seasons has been one of the most effective defensive play calls in the NFL. Part of its effectiveness came from Arthur Maulet’s ability to time the snap, but with him still sidelined, Orr will have to turn elsewhere.
The key is unpredictability, as the Cowboys have a 2.5% unblocked pressure rate allowed this season, indicating that Prescott and his OL are adept at picking up opposing blitz designs and getting the ball out quickly. If Nate Wiggins is active, the Ravens could move Humphrey into the slot, and he’s been an efficient blitzer in the past. His blitz rate has dropped sharply since 2020, so he could surprise the Cowboys by coming after Prescott from the slot.
Orr should also weaponize his linebackers as picks against interior linemen to free up open rushing lanes for Jones and Madubuike. Patrick Queen showed a fearless willingness to crash into opposing linemen, and Trenton Simpson has the size and explosiveness to do the same. The Cowboys will be expecting Simpson to blitz Prescott directly and slide to deal with him, giving him a chance to take up multiple linemen with one rush and free up space for his teammates.
Lighter Boxes, Tighter Coverage
Orr should also lean into his defense’s strength and the Cowboys’ weakness, inviting them to run the ball against the league’s best rushing defense. Dallas has -66 rushing yards over expected this season, with positive RYOE on just 20.5% of their carriers, which ranks at the bottom of the league.
The Ravens should respond with light boxes and more players in coverage, daring the Cowboys to attack them on the ground while taking away opportunities downfield. Dallas ranks 29th in rush efficiency against light boxes, while the Baltimore defense ranks fifth.
The Cowboys have run inside the tackles on 58.7% of their rushing attempts this season, setting up a clear task for the Ravens’ defensive line to control the interior. If Baltimore can establish a stout front with light boxes early in the game, the Cowboys will increasingly turn to spread formations to open up space in the passing game, especially on third down.
Though the Ravens will win some 1-on-1 matchups in the pass rush, their 3.05 average time to pressure this year (third-highest) will give Prescott more time when he drops back against light boxes.
That’s where heavier coverages will come in. Prescott tends to look downfield when not pressured, averaging 8.2 air yards per attempt, but a low completion rate drops his yards per attempt to 5.8 when not pressured. He also struggles to find open receivers past the first down marker, with a 43% tight window rate and -6.0% completion rate over expected on attempts past the sticks this season. In Week 2, Prescott attempted 10 tight window throws, completing just three for 56 yards, plus an interception. The Ravens, meanwhile, have allowed a 70.8% completion rate on opposing passing attempts past the sticks this season.
Orr needs to install some more complicated disguised coverages that force Prescott to sort through rotations downfield instead of getting the ball out quickly. Light boxes will make the middle of the field look open pre-snap before a dropping linebacker or crashing safety closes the middle post-snap. Adding more press coverage into the mix will further delay Prescott’s processing. The Saints deployed press on the outside 46% of the time in Week 2, resulting in one completion and one interception on three targets to the Cowboys WRs against press.
That will also give Orr an opportunity to line up three linemen on obvious passing downs and bring unpredictable pressure from the second level without asking any of his pass rushers to drop into coverage.
Offense
Work From Under Center
The Saints put on a clinic of how to pick apart the Cowboys defense in Week 2. Much of their success started from under center, where they aligned at a 75% rate, the NFL’s highest since the windy Patriots-Bills matchup in 2021 that featured just three passing attempts from Mac Jones.
The Ravens have mainly used shotgun with Lamar Jackson at quarterback; he seems to prefer passing out of it, and it activates the threat of his legs both on designed rushes and scrambles. But instead of asking him to do so much outside the structure of the offense, Monken should ask Jackson to do more within it by passing from under center, both with straight dropbacks and play action.
More under-center has clear benefits for the run game; Derrick Henry is at his best when rushing from single back and I formations, and the offensive line can be better aligned to block downhill.
New Orleans dominated the Cowboys’ defensive line and consistently got to the second level with their zone rush designs.
The defensive tackle position in disarray as Cowboys prepare for Ravens No. 1 rush offense in NFL. https://t.co/2zjAWwz72K
— Ed Werder (@WerderEdNFL) September 18, 2024
Now that Dallas’ DL is even more depleted, the Ravens need to kick off the game by running the ball down their throats. The Cowboys enter Week 3 with the league’s worst stuff rate (6.9%) despite the third-highest rate of stacked boxes (29.3%). Their focus on the pass rush means they aren’t getting penetration against the run, setting up a clear advantage for Baltimore’s rushing offense. This is an opportunity for Daniel Faalele to step up, as he has struggled to move defenders in the run game this season, especially on zone runs. One other solution: run it to the left, behind the more capable Ronnie Stanley and Andrew Vorhees.
The Saints also used a ton of play action from under center looks to draw in the Cowboys’ linebackers and throw it over their heads. That’s a classic Ravens strategy that John Harbaugh should embrace, but Monken rarely dials it up, even though it’s wildly successful due to the threat of the rushing attack.
Another ROUGH game for play calling this week for Ravens…
In week 2, Ravens had the 6th LOWEST play action rate despite…
0.98 EPA/play on 5 play action
-0.17 EPA/play on 31 non play action— Daniel Rees (@DPRees8) September 16, 2024
That simply has to change. If the Ravens really want to be a nightmare offense that can attack using the run or pass from any alignment, that has to include operating from under center.
Countering the Cowboys’ Pressures
The Cowboys’ 42.5% pressure rate should be setting off a five-alarm fire inside The Castle after the Ravens’ struggles in pass protection to start the season. Dallas will look to create 1-on-1 matchup opportunities for Micah Parsons while also using stunts to free him up along the interior. Jackson has done a masterful job of evading pressure this season, but Parsons is among the best finishers in the game.
Monken brought a few adjustments into his protection plan for Week 2, aligning two or more extra blockers eight times on third down with at least three yards to go, compared to just two instances in Week 1. He should bring the same strategy in Week 3, giving extra help to the right side of his offensive line.
The Cowboys will be targeting Faalele and Patrick Mekari after the Raiders’ Week 2 success, isolating 1-on-1 matchups and using stunts to cross Faalele’s face. The converted guard has held up in pass protection when he locks in on a matchup, but his lack of lateral quickness led to pressure at crucial times last week. Simply put, he needs to be more ready against the Cowboys, using his vision and movement instead of relying solely on his length to make blocks.
Monken should also increase Roger Rosengarten’s usage after his impressive performance against Maxx Crosby in Week 2. Mekari struggled with Crosby initially, but Rosengarten put the clamps down when he came in the game. If he’s at right tackle, Monken can be more confident in his ability to hold the edge and focus on holding the interior.
Parsons also mentioned that he may spend some time as a quarterback spy to limit Jackson’s scrambling. He’s one of the few defenders who can catch Jackson in the open field, so Jackson will need to take advantage of his numbers advantage, either in the pass rush or downfield. If the Cowboys still bring pressure with Parsons spying, Jackson has to get the ball out quickly and work the sidelines. If they drop back in coverage, Jackson has to take what the defense gives him and work the underneath game. The Ravens can also run the ball downhill out of the shotgun with Parsons spying to take him out of the play.
Creating Traffic
Beyond coming up with ways to defend against the Cowboys’ pass rush, the Ravens should find ways to use their aggressiveness against them with misdirection and motion. Parsons discussed how the Saints used creative protection designs to create traffic and slow down his pass rush, something Monken should deploy in this game. The Cowboys’ 35.3% pressure rate was their fourth-lowest since the start of the 2023 season, and Parsons registered the fifth-slowest get-off time of his career at 0.99 seconds.
Using pulling linemen (or Patrick Ricard) and motioning players towards Parsons will give him more to process instead of pinning his ears back and playing downhill. Instead of using a traditional tight end chip, Monken should design multiple layers of blocks at Parsons to engage him throughout the entire down instead of giving him the opportunity to split a straight double-team and get into the backfield.
Motion played a huge role in the Saints’ Week 3 victory; they averaged 9.5 yards per play and a 61.5% success rate while using motion at a 74% clip. Any kind of motion you can think of, Klint Kubiak ran it, from jet motion for misdirection in the run game to exit motion to create empty sets in the passing game.
The Ravens ran motion to plenty of success in 2023, but Monken has pulled back this season despite similar efficiency.
We now have Week 2 motion rate data from SIS. And the win/loss split is even more drastic. Teams with an above-average motion rate per dropback are 24-12 to start the season, while teams with a below-average motion rate are 8-20. https://t.co/2pL3KkZeqi pic.twitter.com/R582mrigcI
— Stephen Hoopes (@StephenHoopes) September 19, 2024
Let’s bring the motion back, using it to give the linemen the opportunity to seal off zone blocks and create rushing lanes. The Ravens’ use of under-center play action ties in here, as designed boots off of motion can pull defenses away from Jackson and maintain the threat of his legs as he looks for a big play downfield. Using Zay Flowers as a consistent motion man all game to give him a free release off play action in the fourth quarter sounds like the type of late-game dagger the Ravens have desperately needed in so many games over the last few years. By creating traffic, the Ravens can punch right through the Cowboys’ defense while still opening space further down the field.
1-on-1 Matchup: Tyler Guyton vs. Odafe Oweh
Odafe Oweh has been one of the brightest spots of the Ravens’ 0-2 start, flashing explosive burst off the edge with 2.5 sacks through two games. The Cowboys, meanwhile, have been looking for more from rookie left tackle Tyler Guyton, who has allowed six pressures and two sacks this season. This matchup will be key because of Prescott’s pocket awareness and confidence under pressure. He recognizes oncoming rushers and gets the ball off quickly, making Oweh’s ability to attack his blind side all the more important.
Guyton’s length and physicality made him a potential target for the Ravens, but the Cowboys drafted him one pick ahead of Baltimore’s slot. He spent the majority of his college career at right tackle, so he’s still transitioning to the left side. Oweh should take advantage of that by trying to get under and around Guyton’s outside shoulder, forcing the OT to take more vertical angles over the course of the game to set up inside moves. Chuck Smith has clearly had an impact on Oweh’s developing skillset, and adding some counters to pair with his success to the outside will maximize his potential.
All advanced statistics via NFL Pro unless otherwise noted.
