We’re waiting all day for Sunday Night! The Baltimore Ravens take on the Buffalo Bills at home. Here are the four things you need to know. This is four down territory and we’re going for it.
First Down: The Bills Could be the Ravens’ Toughest Test Yet
While going into Kansas City and taking on the defending champions who beat you in the AFC Championship isn’t easy, you can make the argument that the Buffalo Bills are the Ravens’ toughest test. The Bills are undefeated and have won two games in a row in total blowout fashion. Last week, they beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 47-10 in a game that got out of hand in the first quarter. They dominated the Miami Dolphins in the second Thursday contest of the season to a tune of 31-10. While the Bills had a shootout with the Arizona Cardinals, they still put up 34 points and added a W on their record. If you’re not good at math, the Bills have scored 112 points and have only allowed 48 points.
Josh Allen is coming off a game with 263 yards and four touchdowns. He may be known for playing hero ball and forcing some wild interceptions, but Allen hasn’t thrown one this season. Sean McDermott has never had a team known for running the ball yet James Cook has 188 yards, averaging 4.6 yards per attempt. The Bills have put up 360 rushing yards, a very respectable number. Quite frankly, the Bills aren’t missing Stefon Diggs at all and have found their most balanced attack in years. This has to be at least mildly alarming for a Ravens team that gives up an average of 26 points per game but averages 23.7 points of their own.
The Bills defense is playing strong this season. They are plus-five in the turnover ratio. Von Miller and Gregory Rousseau have three sacks each while five other players have notched a sack of their own. One thing of note is that the Cardinals had 124 rushing yards against the Bills in Week 1. Kyler Murray accounted for 57 of these yards at the quarterback position. This is welcome information for Lamar Jackson who can possibly produce better results as a runner. Derrick Henry just had 151 yards against the Cowboys. The run game looks to be the key. This means the Ravens can’t get into a wild shootout with the Bills. They have to take their game to the Bills and keep the running game relevant.
Second Down: Can the Ravens Frustrate and Punish Josh Allen?
The Ravens are having a strong start to the season in terms of getting to the quarterback. Kyle Van Noy has four sacks. Odafe Oweh (who’s getting many pressures) has 2.5 sacks and the team has tallied 10 in three games. Much like last season, the pass rush is coming by committee. Pass rush could be another key in this game. Allen is very confident and believes he can sling the football in any window. Pressuring, hitting and rushing his decision making could lead him to some of the mistakes that he’s been prone to over his career. Pass rush is a need, but can the Ravens get there?
The bad news for the Ravens is that the Bills’ offensive line has barely been tested this season. Allen hasn’t been sacked since the season opener and the Bills only gave up two sacks in that game. If you watched the game against the Jaguars, it almost looked like Allen and company were playing against air – the Jaguars defense barely factored into the game. Allen has become one of the pro’s pros at the quarterback position as he can beat you before the snap and knows exactly what he wants to accomplish on each play.
The Ravens have to bottle him up in the pocket. They must disguise their looks and give him just enough hesitation to let the pass rushers get there. The good news for the Ravens is that Zach Orr did a great job against the Cowboys keeping Dak Prescott guessing and occupying linemen with potential blitzers whether they rushed the quarterback or not. This is what allowed the Ravens to build a huge lead. The Ravens need to confuse Allen, and set traps for him to throw interceptions. They need to contain him to the pocket and make him pay for holding the football too long. Prescott was a good prep session for Allen. The Ravens need to see more of what they did in the first half against the Cowboys. The goodies for their game plan can be found there.
Third Down: Don’t be Predictable, Keep Adding WrinklesÂ
Todd Monken should receive a little bit of credit for what he did last week. He used receivers (especially Zay Flowers) in motion to give distracting window dressing to keep the defense on their heels. Monken also leaned into what was working and had Pat Ricard play about half the offensive snaps so he could support the run game (That was one of my keys going into the Dallas game, that we saw come into fruition).
You saw the classic hesitation the Ravens can create in defenses with the mesh point between Jackson and the running backs come back to being a factor. You saw Charlie Kolar pretend to block and slip wide open for a nice chunk of yards. It was fun, inventive and fresh last week. The Ravens need to keep throwing wrinkles into this offense because they need to keep the opponent off balance. You always know when the Ravens are in trouble because you’ll say to yourself “Oh no, I’ve seen this movie before.” Monken and Jackson have to keep that out of our heads this week.
Running the ball when Justice Hill is in the game is important. Defenses can’t assume pass just because Henry is out of the game. The Ravens should be more balanced with their targets at the tight end position because Mark Andrews should never be ignored. Still, using all three tight ends and Ricard at fullback throughout the game is a good idea. It helps the offensive line, leans into their run game and lets them call plays tailored to Henry.
Fourth Down: Do the Little Things
The Ravens gave us a scare last week just because they didn’t do the little things. Justin Tucker missed a field goal. The Ravens allowed an onside kick recovery and had some badly timed penalties. It sounds obvious but the little things are a key to winning this game.
The Ravens have to play their most disciplined game of the season. You can be mad at the officials as much as you want, but 13 penalties for 105 yards is a problem. It was 11 penalties for 109 yards against the Raiders. That’s two weeks in a row where the Ravens had double-digit penalties. Officials may have been bad this season but when you have a problem this severe, chances are the team is part of the problem. If you were to come from the future and tell me the Ravens could have beaten the Bills if they made just a couple fewer dumb mistakes or committed a few less penalties, I’d say that sounds about right.
John Harbaugh did a better job handling the game in Dallas. It’s hard to notice when you almost give up a crazy comeback. Let’s be honest though, the onside kick was crazy and he’s not the one who missed the field goal. Harbaugh’s main job is to not be the problem and to have the team ready. The bottom line is that the Bills are too good. You can’t try to get away with the little mistakes that have plagued the Ravens this season.
