Can Ravens Slow Red-Hot Josh Allen?

Defense

Counter Heavy Formations

The Bills have found a new offensive identity since Joe Brady took over for Ken Dorsey as offensive coordinator in Week 11 last year, creating rhythm and structure in an offense that previously relied on superhuman efforts from Josh Allen.

A big part of that identity is heavy packages, rolling out both Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid in condensed 12 personnel formations as well as the second-highest usage of six or more offensive linemen, per NFL Pro. Their 26 plays and 22 rushes with extra linemen are both second in the league as part of Brady’s concerted effort to establish a non-Allen running game.

Brady’s 46.2% designed run rate is fifth-highest in the NFL, a stark change from Dorsey’s 36.3% mark last season, per NFL Pro. James Cook has been one of the best between-the-tackles rushers in the NFL this season, but the Ravens’ 2.7 yards per carry allowed on inside rushes leads the league. Baltimore needs to keep doing what they have been doing: mauling in the trenches, flying to the ball, and preventing yards after contact. An active Brent Urban will be key to this game – his high-quality snaps, especially on early down run defense, will keep the DL well-rested into the fourth quarter, where Baltimore’s defense has faltered this year.

The Ravens used a ton of dime packages against a lighter, more spread out Dallas offense in Week 3, bracketing CeeDee Lamb and daring the Cowboys to run the ball. But Baltimore will need to match Buffalo’s heavy packages and conservative play calls on early downs when the Bills call under center runs (42%) and screens (10%) at the second-highest rates in the league, per the Ringer’s Steven Ruiz.

That’s likely to mean more early-down snaps for Malik Harrison, who has excelled against the run as a hybrid linebacker over the past few seasons. As the game goes on, though, especially if the Bills are losing in the second half, Brady will begin passing out of heavy formations to draw mismatches with linebackers. That will require a shift back to big nickel formations, relying on the versatile abilities of Kyle Hamilton and Trenton Simpson to cover tight ends and still fit the run.

Disrupt Allen’s Rhythm

Countering heavy formations to slow down the Bills’ run game is crucial to disrupting the newfound rhythm of their offense, but it won’t matter as much unless the Ravens can knock Allen off his game.

Allen is the best quarterback in the NFL right now, full stop. His EPA/dropback (0.59) and success rate (61.9%) both lead the league, with an excellent quick passing game that has helped him avoid pressure this season. His 23.8% pressure rate is 4th-lowest in the NFL, while his 2.76-second time to throw is a career-low. But he hasn’t just been getting the ball out quick; he’s been doing it efficiently, completing 90.3% of his quick passes for 8.9 yards per attempt, a 136.2 passer rating, and 74.2% success rate, leading the league in all four categories.

Just like they did against the Cowboys, the Ravens need to throw plenty of press coverage at the Bills’ WRs to disrupt their timing and force Allen to hold the ball. Rather than quick underneath passes into space that lead to YAC, the Bills receivers will get the ball with defenders already bearing down on them. Even if Allen gets the ball out quickly, they’ll be into tighter windows with less opportunities after the catch to hinder the Bills’ rhythm and keep them in negative down-and-distance situations.

That will force Allen to look for more downfield passes. He hasn’t attempted or completed many this season, nor has the Ravens defense allowed them.

The Bills have allowed zero completions of 30+ air yards.

The Ravens have allowed one completion of 30+ air yards. https://t.co/LlqXv34ylc

— Spencer Schultz (@ravens4dummies) September 25, 2024

With a weakened receiver corps, Allen just doesn’t have the opportunity to push the ball down the sidelines anymore, and to his credit, he’s not forcing it. He rarely has to, with solid pass protection and the scrambling ability to avoid pressures.

That’s the second part of disrupting Allen’s rhythm, and arguably the Ravens’ tallest task of the day: pressure a quarterback who is able to navigate in and out of the pocket, break sacks, and pick up yards with his legs. He’s like the T2 from 1991’s Terminator 2: Judgement Day. No matter what setback he faces, he keeps coming, adapting to fit obstacles as he encounters them.

The Ravens’ pass rush has had a tendency to fall off in the fourth quarter as fatigue sets in, a huge risk after chasing after Allen for three quarters. Again, an active Urban would aid with this, as would early-down snaps for Harrison. But more importantly, Orr needs to recognize what’s working and what’s not with his pass rush. His best calls were stunts, and he was moderately successful with off-ball blitzes against the Cowboys, but allowed big plays against simulated pressures.

Like Dak Prescott, Allen is liable to recognize the Ravens’ simulated pressure packages, so Orr should stick with stunts with a few delayed off-ball blitzes that can directly counter Allen’s habits in the pocket. He is happy to take scrambling lanes when he sees them, so twists and loops that cut off scrambling lanes, as well as delayed blitzes from the second level, can force Allen to run himself into trouble. Using Trenton Simpson as a pseudo-spy could be an effective strategy to match Allen’s athleticism and physicality as a ballcarrier.

Close the Middle of the Field

The middle of the field has been the main battleground for the Ravens’ defense, with opponents taking cues from the Chiefs’ Week 1 strategy of isolating favorable matchups against Baltimore’s linebackers.

The Bills will do the same, using pre-snap motion 80.4% of the time (fourth-highest in the league), though that number drops to 31.0% at the snap (18th-highest), according to NFL Pro. Their league-leading 45.5 total EPA on dropbacks with motion more than doubles the next-highest team (Eagles, 21.0).

Brady uses motion to move guys around, draw favorable matchups, and let Allen get a glimpse at the defense before the snap. The Ravens will need to study their motion patterns and be constantly communicating to avoid giving away the defense pre-snap or blown coverages post-snap.

The Ravens’ success in closing the middle of the field will depend on their ability to limit the Bills’ electric slot game. Allen is 23 of 26 when targeting the slot for 241 yards, four touchdowns, and a league-leading 1.02 EPA/pass. His 3.8 air yards per attempt is a league-low by 1.5 yards, but his 88.5% completion rate and a league-leading 176 yards after the catch by the Bills’ slot receivers. The Ravens, meanwhile, have allowed a 61.8% success rate to slot receivers in 2024, the fifth-highest in the NFL.

Khalil Shakir has been especially effective out of the slot, catching all 11 of his targets for 140 yards and two touchdowns out of the slot this season, per NFL Pro. That’s a huge potential matchup for Ar’Darius Washington, who stepped up in a big way against CeeDee Lamb in Week 2 with 27 snaps in the slot. He did allow a late TD to Kavontae Turpin, but he was nails against Lamb and will need to do the same against Shakir, one of the most efficient, underrated receivers in the league.

Dalton Kincaid is the Bills’ other primary slot target, with 41 snaps out of the slot through three weeks. Simply put, Kyle Hamilton is a better player and should work to eliminate Kincaid from the game when the two are matched up.

If the Ravens can disrupt the Bills’ run and quick-passing games, Allen will have to return to his hero-ball ways. That has its risks, but it’s also when Allen makes mistakes throwing the ball downfield. If the game becomes Josh Allen vs. the Ravens defense, they’ll be in good shape. 

Offense

Commit to the Run

The Bills defense presents an interesting change-up to what the Ravens have faced thus far this year. Derrick Henry has faced eight or more defenders in the box at a 33.9% clip, rushing for 115 yards (46 over expected) and four touchdowns on 19 carries against a stacked box, per NFL Pro.

Buffalo’s 10.5% stacked box rate is the sixth-lowest in the league, but they haven’t been exposed against the run (yet). Their -35 rushing yards over expected allowed with fewer than eight defenders in the box is the fifth-best in the league, so Sean McDermott is likely to stick with his two-high nickel strategy and rely on his defensive line to win in the trenches.

The Ravens should have the advantage here. They put on a clinic of heavy rushing attacks against the Cowboys last week, using Charlie Kolar and Patrick Ricard to punch Dallas in the mouth for 274 yards on 45 carries (6.08 YPC). The Bills’ opponents have run the ball just 37.4% of the time, so they haven’t faced a punishing, downhill rushing attack that just doesn’t stop until the game is over.

With heavy nickel usage and lighter off-ball linebackers, the Bills shouldn’t have the strength and physicality to counter Baltimore’s rushing attack. Todd Monken’s calls in Week 3 were diverse and explosive, using motion to threaten the edges and open up room for Jackson up the middle while running Henry from under center at a high rate to maximize his effectiveness.

Essentially, Monken has to take the bait and slam the run. He’ll either find success against the Bills’ lack of stacked boxes, or force McDermott out of his gameplan and into more base personnel, where the Bills linebackers can be exploited in coverage.

The ground game will be especially important in short-yardage, high-leverage downs. John Harbaugh needs to get aggressive, not by passing the ball downfield, but by running the ball on third-and-shorts to set up easily-convertible fourth downs that he’s willing to go for. Long, punishing drives against the Bills will tire them out throughout the game and give Henry and Jackson the chance to close the door in the fourth quarter.

Take What The Defense Gives

Remember how Josh Allen has struggled downfield against a Ravens defense that has limited deep passes?

It’s the same case for Lamar Jackson and the Bills defense, so Jackson will need to take what the defense gives him underneath with hitches and crossers into space for yards after the catch.

Rashod Bateman seems to be gathering steam after his expertly-run touchdown last week, a great example of his understanding of leverage and zone coverage. He is particularly adept at transitioning from receiver to ballcarrier, a skill the Ravens have underutilized in his career. He’s only played 13 snaps in the slot this season, per Pro Football Focus, but bumping that usage up could give him more opportunities to beat linebackers in man coverage and uncover against zones. More run in the slot could be a big opportunity for Bateman and an effective change-up for Monken if the Bills key on Zay Flowers, who has been the Jackson’s primary underneath target this season.

Monken also has to find ways to scheme his quick passing game in concert with his rushing attack. RPOs are one option, putting their defenders in a bind between defending the run and quick outside passes. That will be especially effective if the Ravens establish the run early, forcing Buffalo to commit more defenders to the line of scrimmage.

That will also open up opportunities for play action, but the Bills’ two-high safety sets will take away PA deep shots. Instead, Monken should use motion and play action together to open up space underneath, including some PA screens that fake the run one direction to set up a catch-and-run in another. The Ravens’ pass catchers have blocked well this year, so Monken should get Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews blocking in space for Flowers and Justice Hill.

Jackson’s decisiveness from the pocket has been key to his success this season, not just in identifying open receivers, but acknowledging when coverage is tight and taking off on scrambles. His ability to pick up consistent yards when nothing is open downfield will keep the Ravens in positive down-and-distance scenarios that keep Monken’s options open for all four downs.

Convert in the Red Zone

The offensive firepower on both sides of this matchup would suggest a high-scoring affair, but none of the last three Ravens-Bills games have broken 42 total points.

The Ravens’ 60% red zone touchdown rate is solid, but still much lower than it should be with Jackson and Henry in the backfield. The Bills, meanwhile, have allowed just four touchdowns on 12 trips by opposing offenses.

With Baltimore less able to rely on long field goals from Justin Tucker and Buffalo trying to force long drives, the Ravens will have to convert in the red zone when they get the opportunity.

Rather than trying to score from the high red zone, the Ravens should try to convert first downs within the red zone to get into goal-to-go situations that make their rushing attack near-impossible to stop.

The Bills’ 12.8% blitz rate is dead-last in the NFL, so they’ll try to flood the red zone with coverage defenders rather than attacking Jackson. Monken needs to lean on his running game in the red zone, using read options and outside runs to attack the edges.

But the Bills are a competent, disciplined defense that fits the run well, especially when the field is smaller in the red zone. This is where Monken’s creativity and misdirection can come in, using jet motion, tosses, and even some trick plays to get in the end zone.

Matchup: Zay Flowers v. Cam Lewis

The Bills have ruled out starting slot cornerback Taron Johnson for Sunday’s game, putting Cam Lewis in the nickel against Zay Flowers. While Bateman should get some slot snaps, Flowers will still get plenty of reps against Lewis, who has struggled in coverage and especially after the catch this year. He’s already missed six tackles in three weeks, including four in Week 3, giving Flowers an opportunity to pick up yards after the catch with his elusiveness and agility.

Flowers does have a slight tendency to dance around after he’s gotten the ball, but his matchups with Lewis will give him the opportunity to make one defender miss and race downfield. Continuing Flowers’ heavy motion use – 608 yards traveled in pre-snap motion this year, second most in the NFL – will help him find space against his matchup in the underneath areas of the field.

Flowers’ success has two implications for the Ravens offense. First, he can consistently generate yards on early downs, keeping Baltimore ahead of the sticks and forcing the Bills to defend more aggressively. That will feed into a downfield passing attack, setting up deep crossers and double-moves that Flowers thrives on for chunk yardage. If Flowers consistently beats Lewis and forces the Bills to adjust their coverage scheme,  he’ll open up more opportunities elsewhere in the offense.