Added Benefit of The King: Lightens Jackson’s Workload

Ravens Pass-Catchers Through 4 Games

Wow!  That game was a statement.

Not gonna lie, I was worried about that matchup.  The Bills had been playing great; Josh Allen is a legit MVP candidate (and was last year too).  I thought the Bills might bury the Ravens in a 1-3 hole.  As the game started, my wife asked me if I was excited.  I said no, I had a ball of fear in the pit of my stomach.  The feeling was more powerful than my senses: I had trouble believing it as the Ravens scored.  It didn’t really fade until the 4th quarter.

Mina Kimes said on NFL Live on Monday that the Ravens are a bad matchup for the Bills.  That’s a good way to look at it.  NFL teams aren’t always laid out in a “linear” fashion, like on a number line.  I mean, obviously the Panthers just suck, and every other team is better than them.  But many pretty-good teams have a Rock-Paper-Scissors thing going.  If the Steelers beat the Ravens, and the Ravens beat the Bengals, and the Bengals beat the Steelers – which team is the “best” of that group?  How do you line them up?  Ravens-Bills might wind up like that, where they beat some teams later in the season that beat Baltimore.

Point being, we probably haven’t seen the last of these Bills for this year.

Still: what a decisive way to right the ship after a rough start to the season.  Win on the road against a supposedly strong, star-studded Dallas team; then stomp a contender at home.  At 2-2, just one game back in the division, the Ravens playoff prospects are (now) alive and well.  DVOA has them at 89% likely to make the playoffs; the #2 team in the AFC after the Chiefs (95%).

Garden of Roses

The national coverage after the game focused on Derrick Henry’s performance (more about him in the next section). But maybe the bigger news for the Ravens season was Roger Rosengarten’s performance at Right Tackle.  He started and went the distance, playing all 57 offensive snaps. And he played well!

RSR’s own Cole Jackson has a great breakdown of Rosengarten’s game from Sunday here:

ROGER ROSENGARTEN FILM

Roger Rosengarten Makes CONVINCING CASE to START at RT (Baltimore Ravens A22)https://t.co/qDLysYXwxL

— Cole Jackson (@ColeJacksonFB) September 30, 2024

After the opener we said the thing that could sink the Ravens season was OL play, esp. on the right side.  In the last couple weeks Daniel Faalale has come alive; looks like he’s flipped a switch, activated a quickness & aggressiveness adjustment.  And now Rosengarten goes thru a whole game playing like a starting-quality Right Tackle.  It’s a massive improvement from Week 1.

The way the personnel is deployed on the OL is interesting.  Daniel Faalale was a Tackle under Greg Roman; the Ravens under Todd Monken want him to play Guard.  That says something about philosophy.  I once had a conversation offline with Ken Filmstudy, about Tyler Linderbaum, where Ken said that he really likes Linderbaum playing “between elephants.”  He thought Linderbaum was a little undersized (I disagree, but carry on) but when you put behemoths on both sides of him, then any relative weakness in size & mass is offset, and his speed can show to best advantage.  If you bear that theory in mind as you look across the whole O-line, you see the Ravens alternating mass with quickness:

• At RT, Rosengarten is a little light (young player, hasn’t come into his man growth yet) but has excellent quickness & range.
• At RG, Faalale is one of the most massive human beings you’ll ever see.
• At C, Linderbaum has elite speed & range; a once-a-decade prospect
• At LG, Andrew Voorhees (when he comes back) goes 6-6 320# and led the Combine in bench-press reps
• At LT, Ronnie Stanley has been an elite mover in space when healthy

That is purposeful architecture. It shows a vision for a versatile O-line that can execute just about any offense.  For pass pro, they have size & strength in the A-gaps to protect against mugged-up Linebackers, and agility on the outside to protect against speed rushers.  In the run game they have powerful earth movers at Guard, plus range at the C and OT positions to “reach” and pull and climb to the second level. The new guys need to keep it up; but now we can see what the Ravens were going for.

AND it looks like they can execute screen plays!

The Ravens ran not 1, not 2, but 3(!) successful screens vs. the Cowboys.

They're so beautiful. 🥹 pic.twitter.com/62nQxsUawc

— Ryan Mink (@ryanmink) September 24, 2024

If the Ravens have definitively answered their O-line questions, then this team could EXPLODE.

The King and I

When Derrick Henry was signed, there was skepticism about the acquisition from the “positional value” crowd.  The analytics-based idea is that it’s stupid to devote $8M per year of salary cap space to a 30-yr-old Running Back.  Running backs don’t help win playoff games.  That money would be better spent on a Wide Receiver or pass rusher.

Now, before we go off, saying “those eggheads are stupid and know nothing about real football,” let’s recognize that it’s about four months too early to celebrate.  That crowd still might be proved right. Lots can happen between now and January.  One of the most likely things is that a 30-year-old RB will tail off. The analytics and “positional value” guys have a valid point.

But!  There is one thing Henry absolutely does give you.  Lamar Jackson had to do less work in this game than in almost any other Ravens victory over the past seven years.

We can measure that; or at least estimate it.  Let’s define Lamar’s “workload” in a game as his rush attempts + pass attempts + sacks.  Those are the plays where he’s exposed to hits from the defense; those are the plays that represent “mileage” on Lamar’s body.  That definition isn’t perfect.  One flaw is that Lamar does a lot of option handoffs.  That’s definitely “work”; and he could get hit by a defender attacking the mesh point.  But I don’t really remember seeing Lamar get hit on an option handoff.  He tends to be cagey about that.  This basic definition might be good enough.

Using this estimate, the highest “workload” games of Lamar’s career are:

I don’t have any particular memory of that Vikings game; but the other games are “hero ball” games, where Lamar had to do all the work.  When we fans worry about the longevity of Lamar’s career, those are the type of games we worry about.

This game was at the opposite end of the spectrum.  Lamar threw 18 times, rushed 6 times, and got sacked once: a 25-play workload.  The only games in his career where Lamar had less of a workload – obviously not counting games where he left early with injury; or the early games his rookie year where he wasn’t starting – were two games in 2019 where Lamar had a perfect passer rating, the Ravens were blowing out the opponent, and Lamar sat the whole fourth quarter.  Those were the season opener in Miami, which the Ravens won 59-10, and game 9 vs Cincy, the “He broke his ankles!” game.  In those games Lamar had a 24-play workload.

This game had only one more Lamar play than those laughers.  An easy day at the office.  And against a good team!  That’s what Derrick Henry gives you.  He’s been the ultimate workhorse of his generation of ball carriers. He can carry the load.

Another thing is, Henry commands respect, even from Lamar.  Most seasons, Lamar has known he was the best runner on the team.  I bet that’s always in the back of his mind at the mesh point: “I can do more with this play than our RB can.”  And sometimes Lamar keeps when I wish he would give.  It’s different now. When Lamar is at the mesh point with his RB, Lamar knows “That’s King Henry.”  Henry commands a level of deference, even from Lamar, that probably no other RB could command. I bet as the season goes on, we see Lamar give more often on 50-50 plays where he might have kept with a different RB in the backfield with him.

All of that can save wear-&-tear on the Hero Quarterback’s body.  Hopefully Lamar is fresh as a daisy when the playoffs roll around.  That’s something that could help the Ravens win in the postseason, even if Henry himself isn’t all that productive in those games.

I don't know if Derrick Henry will help the Ravens win playoff games.
But acquiring him will help lessen Lamar's workload in the reg season. They DESTROYED Buffalo, an excellent team, and Lamar didnt have to work very hard.
(Tho a few more hits in the run game than I'd prefer.)

— jimzipcode.bsky.social (@zip_jim) September 30, 2024

 

Stats

Justice Hill had himself a day.  Those 78 yards represent his career high in receiving.  He had 96 scrimmage yards.  He’s turned into a weapon.  Still has the speed, he finishes his carries, runs nice routes, catches the ball, pass-blocks like a demon – just does everything you need.  This might surprise you: over his last 16 games incl playoffs he has almost 700 yards from scrimmage.  He’s been an essential utility back.

Seeing the backs used extensively in the passing game – nine total targets between Hill & Henry – is a welcome development. That was something almost completely missing from the prior offensive regime.  I was a Greg Roman fan (yes, really) but that was a noticeable gap.  Many/most of the great offenses utilize backs as receivers to devastating effect.  Think of Brock Purdy throwing to Christian McCaffrey; or Matt Ryan throwing to Devonta Freeman & Tevin Coleman; or Kurt Warner throwing to Marshall Faulk; or Joe Montana throwing to Roger Craig.  Hell, the Ravens last Super Bowl offense included Joe Flacco throwing to Ray Rice (remember 4th-&-29?).  Rice’s two seasons with 2000+ yards-from-scrimmage included 700+ receiving yards each.  It’s an important dimension to a complete passing attack.

By the way, Hill’s TD reception was for 19 yards.  That’s one yard short of twenty, so technically he still doesn’t (quite) have an “explosive” reception on the season. Technically.  Put a mental asterisk there for the “almost”, if you want.

Bateman had a second target on the day, that did not make it into the box score.  That was the throw to him in the end zone, where he was dragging the defender who had grabbed his shirt: penalty, no-play, half the distance to the goal.

Mark Andrews, I don’t know.  He’s blocking his ass off, so he seems physically healthy.  He’s always had the occasional drop, so that’s not completely out of character.  But it gets magnified when that’s your only target for the game.  With other players performing well, there’s been no need to force-feed him to get him jump-started.

Season stats & Leaderboard

Here are your full-season stats to date:

If you pencil-in the asterisk for Hill’s 19-yd TD reception into the “Explosives” column above, the Ravens are getting explosive plays in the receiving game from all over their roster.  It’s a diverse attack.  Great to see.

Zay Flowers hasn’t had a breakout game yet.  I personally think the Ravens are over-using him on short, gadget stuff. Defenses are keyed onto him – which they should be; he was the Ravens leading receiver last year, 30 catches and 300 yards ahead of the next guy. Lamar and Todd Monken have exploited openings elsewhere in the defense.

Stats show an extreme split between how the Ravens are using Flowers and Bateman.  There’s a stat called “Average Depth of Target”.  It’s how deep a receiver is when thrown to, both complete and incomplete.  That stat illustrates the huge difference in usage between Bateman and Flowers:

Bateman goes deep; 6th in the league in Avg Depth of Target (minimum 12 targets).  Flowers goes short; approx. #100 in that stat.  For my money that split is too extreme.  Flowers has deep ball skills, despite his size.  He would do well in a downfield role, like Jaylen Waddle or Steve Smith (with whom Flowers shares a body type).  Bateman has excellent short-area quickness and route-running.  He’d be great on short to intermediate routes.

Of course, it’s easy for me to lecture Todd Monken, from my vantage point on the couch.  Maybe next I’ll give Steph Curry some tips on 3-point shooting.  The Ravens are juggling Isaiah Likely and Andrews, who are also great on short to intermediate routes.  They’re working in Nelson Agholor and running a fair amount of 3-WR sets.  Patrick Ricard gets snaps.  And overall it ain’t broke, so this is no time to be “fixing” it.

The Ravens don’t have anyone in the league’s top 50 in receiving yards.  Bateman is 24th in yards-per-target.  Isaiah Likely is 21st in Success Rate; Hill is 40th.  Likely is 18th in YTS among qualifiers (between Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy); Hill is 27th, Bateman 36th.

Lamar is 7th in QBR, 8th in yards-per-attempt, 9th in passer rating. He’s 4th in (lowest) sack rate, #16 in passing yards.  He’s 5th in Net-yards-per-attempt and 6th in Success Rate, which makes him 4th in YTS, between Jared Goff and Derek Carr. (Brock Purdy and Jayden Daniels are 1 & 2.)

Your Ravens are the #1 overall offense by DVOA.  The separate rankings for pass and rush offense are paywalled, so I can’t see exactly how that ranking breaks down.  I assume the rush component is off the charts, and the pass component is pretty good.  But however they get there, DVOA has the Ravens offense distinctly ahead of the league.  Here are the seven teams who currently have double-digit Offensive DVOA:

The Ravens are 5th in points-per-drive; 10th in Scoring Percentage.  Being higher in points-per than in scoring% indicates that they’re getting Touchdowns rather than settling for Field Goals, which is great.  They’re 6th in Red Zone Touchdown percentage; 7th in 3rd-down conversions.  My YTS stat for team passing (net-Yards-per-attempt Times Success-rate) has the Ravens 4th.  That’s pass only, not total offense.

Would all that be easier to visualize on a table?  Here it is:

This is a good offense.

Why Y?

I realize I’ve gone kinda HAM with YTS in recent columns.  I started with YTS in 2022 as a way to sort Running Backs.  Last year I extended it to receivers.  This year I’m using it all over the place: receivers, QBs, whole offenses.  But it occurred to me that I haven’t explained why I think YTS is useful.  In this day & age when we have DVOA and EPA per play and Yards Over Expectation and PFF, why in the world would we need yet another fancy stat for offense?

The short answer is: we don’t.  There’s enough Advanced Stats out there.  I don’t offer YTS as being “better” than DVOA or EPA-per-play or anything.  Actually I’m pretty sure that DVOA is better than YTS: more accurate, more reliable, more predictive, less subject to distortion, etc.  What YTS has going for it is that it’s not proprietary.  DVOA is a black box that lives on Aaron Schatz’s laptop, and you have to subscribe to FTN to get it (for players).  PFF is a subscription service.  I don’t even know where to find basic EPA stats.  And I’m not enough of a statistician to know R and use nflscrapR.

What YTS has going for it is that it’s easy.  Since PFR started tracking Success Rate last year, you can get YTS off free sources.  PFR’s receiver stats page has Success Rate and Yards-per-target right there for every player.  Multiply the two numbers and you have receiving YTS.  Their passing stats page lists Success Rate and Net-yards-per-attempt for every QB.  Again, just multiply and you have passing YTS.  Same with RBs.  This data is freely available!  And you don’t need to be a data scientist to calculate it and use it.

YTS is not as “good” as DVOA or other advanced stats.  It’s not as precise or granular; doesn’t adjust for game context etc.  But it’s pretty good.  I estimate it has around 85-90% of the info content of DVOA.  So that means YTS is free, easy, open source / non-proprietary; any amateur can calculate it for themself; and nearly as informative as the most advanced stats.  What’s not to love?

That’s Y.

Next Up: Shit gets real. Division play starts.  The Bengals haven’t exactly been lighting the world on fire this season; but division road games are always a dogfight.

Ever notice how much Joe Burrow looks like Ellen DeGeneres?

"Looks Like Ellen DeGeneres" – The Internet Let Loose On Joe Burrow For His MNF Pre-Game Outfithttps://t.co/kkx90rXpVKhttps://t.co/kkx90rXpVK

— Whiskey Riff (@WhiskeyRiff) September 24, 2024

The Macaulay Culkin reference for Burrow is so 2022.