Joe Burrow, arguably even more so than Patrick Mahomes, strikes fear in the hearts of the Ravens. Back in 2021, the Bengals dismantled the Ravens twice by the scores of 41-17 and 41-21, respectively. In the two games that season against riverboat gambling defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, Burrow was a combined 60 for 84 with 941 yards, 7 TD’s and 1 INT for a passer rating of 131.1. Need you be reminded, those eye-popping numbers were posted during two games, in the same season.
During the 2022 and 2023 seasons, the Ravens faced Burrow and the Bengals five times including a wild card playoff game. Then, Mike Macdonald took over for the defensive reins for the departed Martindale. Burrow’s effectiveness was limited.
Burrow’s passer rating during these remarkably similar five games (he was knocked out of the most recent game with a wrist injury) is 88.0.
It’s safe to say that Macdonald’s approach worked. The sample size is sufficient to conclude that during the two seasons under Mike Mac, Burrow was rather average.
The big question is, can Zach Orr effectively implement the successful blueprint to slow Burrow the way Macdonald did?
Wink Martindale (Ravens DC) decided to call out Joe Burrow out in December 2021. Joe saw those comments and preceded to put up 525 yds and 4 TDs for the Bengals winning 41-21. Joe's probably heard Chris Canty's comments this week as well. Here's Joe talking about Martindale: pic.twitter.com/HlGihcpLBQ
— obscure bengals (@obscure_bengals) October 4, 2024
Lamar in Cincinnati
Conversely, Lamar Jackson has enjoyed success against the Bengals. In 10 games against Cincinnati he has thrown 246 times, completing 152 passes for 1,834 yards, 14 TD’s and 4 INT’s for a passer rating of 96.8. He’s also rushed for 696 yards and 2 scores.
When playing in Cincinnati Lamar’s numbers get even better. During those games he’s thrown the ball 72 times, completing 49 for 573 yards, 8 TD’s, 1 INT for a passer rating of 123.2. He’s also averaged 72 yards rushing during his (3-0) record in the Queen City.
Yet the Ravens are only favored by 2 ½ today?
Play to Your Strengths
The Ravens under John Harbaugh, have this annoying tendency to get away from what they do best. It seldom works. Would it shock anyone if the Ravens come out throwing the ball all over the field after getting Derrick Henry untracked the past two weeks?
There’s little doubt that the Bengals will do their best to force Lamar to the air. They’ll invest the resources to slow down Lamar and Henry. This week, former Ravens S Geno Stone even said as much:
“You’ve got to live with Lamar throwing the ball, you don’t want him and Derrick being able to run the ball. It’s not how you stop him, it’s how you limit him. You know he’s going to make plays; he’s going do what he does. But you have to limit how many plays he makes, how big of plays they are.”
Early on, the sledding may be tough. Henry could post 10 yards or so after his first five carries. OC Todd Monken must avoid the temptation to abandon the run too quickly. Doing so gets away from the Ravens strength and simultaneously, it helps the Bengals and their 25th-ranked rushing defense.
Play 4 Quarters
Another of the Harbaugh-influenced tendencies is to get conservative with the lead. Offensively, the Ravens tend to stop doing the things they did to get the lead, opting instead to just play the role of clock killers. It seldom works. On defense with a lead, the Ravens safeties could look like they are defending Louisville, Kentucky which is 100 miles away from Cincinnati. It’s one thing to prevent the quick score. It’s another to let your defense bleed out from a thousand paper cuts and for the Ravens, those cuts are the byproduct of canyon-sized gaps between the linebacker drops and those defenders on the back end.
A Must Win?
Clearly, it’s too early to label today’s game a “must win”. But the Ravens have some momentum. They have an opportunity to put a divisional foe behind the 8-ball. Take the kill shot when you have it.
But that’s not the Harbaugh Way, is it?
Things I’d Like to See Today
• Ravens beat the Bengals physically
• Lamar connects on a deep shot to get something new on film that so far opposing defenses haven’t had to respect
• Mark Andrews becomes a factor again
• Roquan Smith is more physical at and around the line of scrimmage
• Marcus Williams does something more than sit in the bleachers
• The Ravens have fewer penalties than the Bengals
• A killer instinct from the coaching staff
TRENDING: #Bengals QB Joe Burrow had a wild reaction on the bench to an awful play
😭
(h/t @bengalslvr)
pic.twitter.com/5v4evNzbzo— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) September 30, 2024
Prediction
As chronicled in our weekly Bold Predictions, I’ve got the Ravens winning this one 27-17. They are just a better team that is playing well and finding their groove while the Bengals are still searching for theirs.
Today’s Prop Bets
RSR’s Colin Russell provides us with his favorite prop bets each week and I really like three of the five he’s mapped out.
• Zack Moss U 44.5 Rushing Yards (-125 ESPN Bet)
• Mark Andrews O 24.5 Receiving Yards (+105 ESPN Bet)
• Derrick Henry Longest Rush O 16.5 Yards (-105 ESPN Bet)
A Little Nostalgia
Perhaps many of you aren’t familiar with the 70’s sitcom, WKRP in Cincinnati. So often when the words “in Cincinnati” appear or are mentioned, I think back to that popular TV show and it’s theme song. There’s something about those TV theme songs. They take you back to a place and time and in a way, the thought and the music in your head comforts you. Theme songs from MASH, Cheers, Welcome Back Kotter, The Jeffersons, Friends, the list goes on, take you on a pleasant stroll down memory lane.
Speaking of which, I remember when the Ravens & Lamar Jackson dismantled the 49-13 in Cincinnati back on November 10, 2019. A repeat of that effort would make for a relaxing Sunday and a pleasant Monday.
Is that asking too much?
Enjoy the game today, Flockers. Hopefully we’ll eagerly await the remaining slate of games after the Ravens advance to (3-2) on the season and the Steelers lose to the Cowboys, although I’m not holding my breath on the latter.
