RSR’s Dev Panchwagh and Nikhil Mehta are tag teaming Battle Plans for the 2023 season.
Offense
Motion, Take 2
Preparing for the Browns, we talked about the power and influence of motion to help Lamar Jackson identify the blitz and create free release opportunities for the receivers in the passing game. Motion was a big part of the game plan against Cleveland, but the focus was to open up the running game, with Zay Flowers as the catalyst on jet sweep motion.
Motion was effective to hold the defense and crack open lanes for Justice Hill and Melvin Gordon to gain chunk yards. The defense was so keyed in on Flowers, there were multiple defenders flowing to his side. Now that it’s on film, the natural step is to use that same play design to create opportunities in the passing game. Flowers could be the actual target on these plays. He could be in an orbit motion, release from the backfield into a wheel route, or be a screen target. There are a number of possibilities to get him involved on the back side of the play that will throw a wrench into the Steelers.
The use of motion combined with play action can also extend different platforms for Jackson to throw from. In a game where protecting the edges is paramount facing T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith, use of motion and different forms of eye candy can slow the rushers to read and react to different keys, just as it did against Myles Garrett last Sunday.
Something @devpanchwagh and I mentioned in Battle Plans: giving Myles Garrett a lot of different looks. Here, Andrews chips him and gets to the second level, while the motion and fake draws him upfield where he's met and sealed off by a pulling center. Good stuff. https://t.co/uucNreONCC
— Nikhil Mehta (@nmehtaUR2022) October 2, 2023
Attack Downfield
All in all, the Pittsburgh defense has struggled against wide receivers this season. And when they have given up completions, it’s typically of the big play variety. Pittsburgh has the fifth-lowest pass completion percentage allowed this year (55.1%), but has still allowed the sixth-most passing yards (1,091). That discrepancy can be explained by their 11.36% explosive play rate, which ranks 27th in the NFL. The Houston Texans and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud had their way through the air against the Steelers last week, throwing for over 300 yards, hitting on four 20+ yard completions (one going for over 50 yards to Nico Collins).
The Ravens haven’t delivered as many explosive plays through the air this season, with most of their explosive plays coming through the ground. But this shapes up to be the week to flip that script.
Both starting offensive tackles are poised to return to the lineup, so there might be more opportunities to protect and take those shots. Moreover, Pittsburgh has typically relied on aggressive man coverage to stymie the Baltimore receivers in the past.
But that approach will come with risk, as Flowers and receiver Nelson Agholor have the big play ability to make them pay over the top, especially on the boundary. This would also be a good game to run bunch or intersecting route combinations to challenge the Steelers’ ability to maintain their communication and discipline in man coverage, especially on deeper level routes.
Getting Rashod Bateman, one of Baltimore’s best man-to-man separators, back from injury would be a big boost, as that would allow Monken to roll out 11 personnel as often as possible. That will force the Steelers to put five defensive backs on the field, which has yielded 0.31 EPA/pass, a 53.16% success rate and a 13.92% explosive play rate to opposing offenses this season. Monken can isolate Bateman on one side of the field to win his route while scheming up free releases and open space for pass-catchers on the other side, giving Jackson plenty of places to go with the ball.
Backs in Space
Getting back to neutralizing the Pittsburgh pass rush, the backs can play a part as outlets for Jackson on quick throws in space. Jackson only had 19 attempts last week against the Browns, so the backs weren’t exactly involved.
Still, that wheel route catch from Gordon on a key third down showed off the potential. Gordon has always been a reliable pass catcher in this league. And with Justice Hill likely to ramp up more of his snaps, coming back from a toe injury, it makes sense to get him involved more too.
The backs will also play a pivotal role to help block Watt and Highsmith, so coming up with ways to involve them as release targets for Jackson offers a two-way benefit for pass pro and to potentially eat up yards in the open.
Defense
Create Interior Pressure to Force Pickett to Bail Early
The Ravens defense is absolutely cruising right now. Mike Macdonald is targeting the weaknesses of opposing offenses and tearing them apart with his dynamic, hard-hitting playmakers. That will be a winning formula against a scuttling Steelers offense with a -0.22 EPA/play that ranks 31st in the league and a 36.05% success rate that ranks dead last.
Pittsburgh OC Matt Canada’s stagnant offense combined with Kenny Pickett’s skittish quarterback play will be readily countered by the disguised coverages and pass-rush packages that Baltimore has already run this season. Macdonald should tailor them to the specific deficiencies of the Steelers offense – namely, Canada’s one-read passing game and Pickett’s aversion to pressure.
The Ravens can exploit Pickett’s propensity to bail out of the pocket early in coverage and through their pass rush. Using different pre- and post-snap coverage looks – for example, showing press on the outside and backing off right before the snap – will force Pickett to either abandon his pre-snap read and reprocess or take the bait for easy PBUs (or even interceptions) for Baltimore’s DBs.
Pickett is particularly sensitive to interior pressure, which Macdonald can target with Jadeveon Clowney looping inside on four-man rushes or mugging up the A gap with Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen on blitzes. Pickett does have some athleticism, so the Ravens will have to contain him on the outside to prevent extended plays and turn those pressures into sacks.
Macdonald can tap into some psychological warfare here, too. Getting to Pickett a few times early can set his pressure sensitivity so high that merely showing blitz could be enough to throw him off his game in high-leverage situations later on.
Invite the Run on 2nd Down
Another crippling deficiency of the Steelers’ offense is Canada’s insistence on running the ball on early downs, including an absurd 80% rush rate on 2nd down with 7-to-9 yards to go for a first down. (They actually run the ball less on 2nd down with 3-6 yards to go, at 70.59%!)
They’re not very efficient doing it either, averaging just 3.6 yards per attempt and registering a -0.21 EPA/rush. The Ravens, conversely, boast the 5th best defensive EPA/rush and have yet to allow a rushing touchdown this season.
Macdonald should goad the Steelers into running the ball using light boxes, especially on second downs where a run stop can force Pittsburgh into relying on Pickett’s arm on third-and-long. Light boxes against talented runners like Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are still a risk, but the Ravens have the personnel to handle it.
Not only have Smith and Queen been RB Terminators all year, the return of Marcus Williams and mini-breakout from Geno Stone gives Macdonald the flexibility to drop Kyle Hamilton into the slot where he can be an impact run defender. His athleticism and 6-foot-4, 220-pound frame is like having a third off-ball linebacker close to the line of scrimmage, so those light boxes won’t actually be so light once the play starts.
All Macdonald has to do is set the trap and let the Steelers waltz right into it.
3rd Down Defense
The Ravens offense suffered for years under Cam Cameron’s ‘run-run-pass-punt’ offensive sequences, so it’s somewhat ironic that their current defense is built to force that outcome on the Steelers this week. Stout run defense on early downs, against a team that loves to run the ball on early downs, can only lead to one thing: third-and-longs.
The first defensive key focusing on coverage and pass-rush schemes still applies: apply interior pressure to disrupt Pickett’s reads and force him to bail from the pocket. On early downs, Pickett is more likely to get rid of the ball or try to make it back to the LOS, but he won’t have the luxury on third downs, especially as the game goes on. If the Ravens are successful in eliminating Pickett’s initial reads and flushing him out of the pocket, the second-year QB will look to his checkdown options, so Baltimore will have to be ready to converge and tackle.
The Ravens will have to be particularly wary of Jaylen Warren, who has established himself as the Steelers’ pass-catching back with a 24% late down target share, a 14% explosive catch rate and five first downs this season. Getting caught up in the pass rush or in coverage downfield can easily lead to losing track of Warren, especially if he leaks out after starting in pass protection. Smith, Queen and Hamilton will have to be prepared to collapse on Warren, who leads all NFL running backs with 164 yards after the catch (9.1 YAC/reception) this season, per Pro Football Focus. That receiving prowess will also lead the Steelers’ to dial up some passing plays for him, especially screens to curb the aggressiveness of the Ravens’ pass rush.
It’s also worth mentioning 6-foot-7, 265-pound rookie TE Darnell Washington, who is set to step up for the injured Pat Freiermuth. Washington is an athletic freak who has the potential to be an explosive pass-catcher, but he’s primarily been used as a blocker thus far. With Freiermuth sidelined, his receiving role will increase, both as a downfield threat and as a checkdown option. Washington might be an unrefined route runner, but he was still able to generate some big plays at Georgia last year. His size-speed combo is tough to cover and even tougher to bring down after the catch.
Matchup to Watch
George Pickens vs Brandon Stephens
We’ve seen this one already. Brandon Stephens showed flashes of the physical outside cornerback he’s been thus far this year towards the end of last season, culminating in a great game against the Steelers in Week 17.
Baltimore did a solid job of adjusting to the weird look Pittsburgh threw at them. Stephens gets physical and beats Pickens at the catch point to force the FG. pic.twitter.com/8ga3YFtTVu
— Nikhil Mehta (@nmehtaUR2022) January 5, 2023
That included this end zone PBU against George Pickens, who tried to use his trademark size and physicality at the catch point against the smaller Stephens, who was having none of it.
The pair will likely match up again on Sunday, with Stephens receiving the highest praise of his career…
Most coverage snaps without allowing a TD among all CBs:
Brandon Stephens – 189
| @Ravens | pic.twitter.com/3gl8pkgXjF
— PFF BAL Ravens (@PFF_Ravens) October 3, 2023
…and Pickens reeling from a quiet Week 4 performance with three catches for 25 yards and a fumble. Pickens will want to bounce back and try to assert himself against Stephens, especially in the red zone. Stephens has the mentality and physicality to contain Pickens, but he’ll have to be careful to keep from getting flagged. Stephens can’t get too grabby when hand-fighting with Pickens, and he has to get his head around faster when Pickens is targeted to play the ball and avoid PI.
All stats entering Week 5. Advanced stats via Sumer Sports and Arjun Menon’s The Scout unless otherwise noted.
