Ravens-Titans: A Rivalry Renewed

Dev Panchwagh and Nikhil Mehta are tag-teaming Battle Plans this season.

Offense

Slowing Down Simmons

The performance of the Baltimore offensive line has been up and down this season. Part of the problem has been a constant shuffle given injuries. It looks like that spin cycle might come to an end against the Titans, with the expected return of offensive tackle Morgan Moses and super sub Patrick Mekari.

They will need the reinforcements against a Tennessee defensive line led by defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons. Simmons is one of the true game wreckers in the league. He can move the pocket inside-out and make life hard for the quarterback to step up in the pocket. And his ability to play the run and attract double teams enables the Titans to stop the run without loading up the box with defenders. Tennessee runs heavy boxes just 17.86% of the time, the lowest mark in the league, allowing them to spread out their defenders and provide added coverage support against their opponents’ receiving weapons.

To knock them off their game, the Ravens’ game plan should start with containing Simmons without constantly double-teaming him. That could mean running away from his side, forcing him to move horizontally, and finding ways to get him blocked with multiple players through motion and shifts.

Tyler Linderbaum has also been especially impressive with his combo blocks this year, helping out a guard with one defender before moving to the next. That could be a way to pseudo-double-team Simmons off the snap while maintaining a numbers advantage in the run game as the play develops.

This is the type of game where moving Lamar Jackson around and keeping the pocket more active versus static makes a lot of sense. Keep Simmons from teeing off up the middle.

Exposing Light Boxes

If offensive coordinator Todd Monken can devise a plan to contain Simmons, that would go a long way in opening up the entire offense. It might also force the Titans’ hand when it comes to deploying lighter boxes on early downs.

To this point, the Titans have been the best run defense in football. But the Colts, even without quarterback Anthony Richardson for a chunk of the game, ran all over that front, to the tune of 193 yards. Zach Moss did his best Jonathan Taylor impersonation, rushing for over 160 of those yards.

Could the Colts have uncovered a loose thread that the rest of the league can pull on?

If the Ravens are facing lighter boxes and more two high looks, it’s an invitation to run on the Colts. But Baltimore doesn’t need to line up in as much 11 personnel (with three receivers) and spread the field. Especially given their recent pass pro struggles.

This game could open up opportunities for more 12 personnel (with two tight ends) and a variation of splits so those tight ends could potentially help chip and block to give the line more support. In fact, in the first half against the Steelers, with Patrick Ricard on the field, the Ravens’ pass protection was humming.

In these looks, even having more of a pass catching presence like Isaiah Likely on the field could provide balance between giving Jackson a viable target and adding some pop in the run blocking scheme, even if Likely needs to be more of a possession blocker in space.

Go for the throat

The Ravens have been able to get off to fast starts, but can they bury their opponents? In fact, the Ravens are one of three teams in the league to score the first touchdown in all their games.

What that means in a nutshell is that Monken has been really good scripting the first plays of the game. Against the Steelers, he was mixing it up, keeping the Steelers off balance between the run and the pass, and they looked totally overmatched. However, they soon adjusted on defense to counter, as did the Houston Texans, most prominently by running more Cover 0 blitzes.

Ultimately, Monken needs to figure out a better balance on offense that keeps them in more of a front running position when they do gain the lead. Against the Titans especially who have been struggling to move the ball consistently, if they get an early lead, they need to continue attacking and give the offense the confidence that they can take over. That might mean keeping the ball through the air against a Tennessee defense that only allows -0.14 EPA/play against the run (11th in the NFL), but surrenders 0.16 EPA/play against the pass (28th).

Defense

Setting the edge against Henry

When you think of the Titans, you always think of King Henry and how to best contain their vaunted ground game. The Ravens have battled Derrick Henry enough times to know how dangerous he can be, even if he’s no longer prime Henry.

It starts with setting the edge. Henry is notorious for pressing the ball along the line, biding his time, only to find the back door alley when the defensive front over pursues. Henry has sprinter’s speed and still has breakaway ability in the open field.

However, Henry has had a tougher time getting started behind a Titans offensive line that has been depleted by injuries and the loss of talent over the years. Regardless, the defense will need to win at the point and make sure to set the edge to turn Henry back inside.

To this point, the linebackers have been outstanding edge setters. Jadeveon Clowney and Malik Harrison in particular put on a clinic last Sunday against the Steelers. They handled the tackles and tight ends to make it tough to get anything going on the perimeter. They will need to be on top of their games to keep Henry from getting anything going. 

Defending heavy personnel

The Titans have multiple tight ends on the field almost 40% of the time, one of the highest rates in the league. (Their offensive coordinator, Tim Kelly, previously served as the Titans’ TE coach.)

That TE usage serves an obvious purpose in their run game, but they’re even better passing out of 12 personnel to the tune of 0.54 EPA/pass, good for 2nd in the league, plus a 6th-best 15.19% explosive play rate despite lacking a deep TE or WR room. Henry certainly accounts for some explosive runs, but the Titans are still finding a way to move the ball through the air with multiple tight ends on the field.

Curiously, though, second-year speedster Chigoziem Okonkwo is the only Tennessee TE to have more than three catches on the season. That means the second tight end is staying in for pass protection to help a weak OL. As a result, the Ravens should avoid matching heavy personnel too often, perhaps again using Kyle Hamilton as a third off-ball LB of sorts out of the slot to match up against tight ends in the pass game while still maintaining run defense integrity..

The Ravens should also look out for a variation of this specific play:

Ben Johnson and Kyle Shanahan. Two of the best. Dialing it up for the Iowa TEs in shot play territory. pic.twitter.com/R8J3BrWcAw

— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) October 9, 2023

Henry has shown off ball-handling skills throughout his career, and Okonkwo has the speed to punish the Ravens vertically. The NFL is a copycat league, so Mike Macdonald should take note now and for future matchups.

Selectiveness with blitz calls

Macdonald has maintained an impressive level of unpredictability with his blitzes all season, both in terms of frequency and design. But he still has a tendency to dial up ultra-aggressive blitzes in high-leverage scenarios, and opponents are catching on.

Meanwhile the Titans have been solid against the blitz this year, with a 0.19 EPA/play that ranks 10th in the league and a 23.53% explosive play rate. Part of that success goes back to the Titans’ heavy formations. Ryan Tannehill is an experienced QB, and he already has the extra pass protection on the field. All he has to do is identify the blitz, make his adjustments, and exploit single coverage or vacated zones downfield.

Against five pass rushers, the Titans’ explosive rate jumps to 28.00%, the league’s second-best mark. That’s especially dangerous against Macdonald’s overload blitzes if Tannehill can figure out where the pressure is coming from and run the other way.

The Titans’ efficiency drops to -0.12 EPA/pay and a 37.04% success rate against four-man rushes, a bottom-4 mark in both categories. If the Ravens defense can build up a solid lead, Macdonald should temper his usual late-game aggressiveness and force the Titans to produce long scoring drives against blanketed coverage all the way down the field.

Stunts and twists were effective against the Steelers, and that will need to be the route Macdonald takes to turn up the volume on his four-man rushes.

One-on-One Matchup

DeAndre Hopkins versus Marlon Humphrey

The Titans already ruled out second-year receiver Treylon Burks for Sunday’s matchup, leaving Hopkins as their only consistently-dangerous pass-catching threat. After returning from a foot injury that sidelined him for the first four games of the season, Humphrey got burned on the last play against Pittsburgh, so he’ll be looking for redemption this week.

Hopkins has been the Titans’ primary chain-mover this year with 19 of the team’s 47 first downs, per PFF. Tannehill will be looking to his All-Pro WR, especially on third downs.

This is a matchup between two of the best in the game at their respective positions. They are physical, invite combat, and own the boundary. Locking down Hopkins is a must to contain a Titans offense that has been highly inconsistent, if not for Hopkins largely bailing them out.