Ravens Pass-Catchers Through 13 Games
Did you know that Lamar Jackson‘s 43 pass attempts against the Rams tied his career-high for regular season attempts?
Lamar Jackson had attempted 43 passes in three previous regular season games. In 2019 Week 3, Lamar threw 43 times at Kansas City in a loss. In 2021 Lamar threw 43 times twice; first in the record-setting game vs Indy Week 5, then in the Thursday night road loss at Miami Week 9. Those two games were highs and lows. Against Indy Lamar threw for his career-high of 442 yards, leading a comeback win in overtime. Then against Miami the Ravens got embarrassed as the Dolphins blitzed while camping all their DBs ten yards deep, over and over.
Statistically, teams don’t usually have a great won/loss pctg in the games where they have their most pass attempts. Hall Of Famer Dan Marino threw 55+ passes in five career games: the Dolphins lost them all. Peyton Manning attempted 50+ in 17 career games between Indy and Denver, and his teams went 4-13 in those games. Tom Brady attempted 55+ passes in 11 career games, and his teams were 3-8 in those games. Patrick Mahomes has attempted 50-55 passes in four career games and the Chiefs are 2-2 in those games. That doesn’t sound bad; but Mahomes’ career win% is .774, so it is a come-down. (Mahomes’ actual career high is a game where he attempted 68! passes last year in a 20-17 overtime win over Tennessee. They had no rushing attack at all on that day. Weird game.)
In Lamar’s five career regular season games with 40+ passes, the Ravens are 3-2. I emphasize “regular season” because Lamar’s overall career-high is the 59 passes he attempted in the 2019 playoff loss vs the Titans. So it’s 3-3 if you include playoffs. Like with Mahomes, that’s not bad, but Lamar’s career win% is .743, so it is a come-down.
The simple reason that a high number of attempts does not correlate with winning, is because teams throw more when they’re behind. The high-pass-attempt days tend to come in games the team is losing. Conversely the high rushing yardage games tend to come when a team is in control and just patiently running out the clock.
But Sunday’s game against the Rams was not one where the Ravens were way behind and had to toss the running game to the wayside. It was a one-score affair all day. The Ravens were never down by more than five points; through three quarters they were never down more than three. So there really was no need to be as pass heavy as they were on the day.
Not gonna lie, I was a little annoyed at all the passing in the Rams game. It did not seem like the best path to victory. On the day they had 45 pass plays (including two sacks) vs 26 rushing attempts. But six of those rushing attempts were Lamar scrambles, which means they started life as dropbacks. (That number of six comes from the official gamebook. Other services have Lamar with eight scrambles.) So it’s 51 dropbacks vs 20 called runs: a 72% pass rate. That’s too unbalanced. Keaton Mitchell was “successful” (as in Success Rate) on six of seven carries through three quarters: why not give him the ball more? Obviously I am not complaining about the go-head drive in the 4th quarter where Lamar dropped back 10 times. With time running out with the game on the line: sure, do what you gotta do. But through three quarters the Ravens dropped back on 67% of plays, in a one-score game. That just doesn’t seem like an effective recipe for managing a tight game.
With that volume of attempts, Lamar was both brilliant and imperfect. In terms of maneuvering in the pocket and avoiding a tough pass rush, he was ridiculous. Simply unbelievable. But Lamar’s ball placement was inconsistent. On the two big completions to Odell Beckham (including the touchdown), Beckham had to change direction and re-locate the ball over the opposite shoulder. Those balls would likely have been incomplete to a lesser receiver. The interception intended for Rashod Bateman was underthrown.
This was a day where I’d say Lamar had a great game as a quarterback – keeping himself alive in the pocket, decision-making, game management, running the hurry-up offense on that 4th quarter go-ahead drive – but a meh game as a passer in terms of accuracy and placement. Interesting that both can be true. On Sunday the stuff Lamar was good at was FAR more important than the stuff he was just okay at.
Throwing to Win
On the subject of passing volume, I want to call your attention to some remarks Todd Monken made when he was hired to be Cleveland’s offensive coordinator back in 2019:
It amuses Todd Monken to be pigeonholed as an “Air Raid” guy.
Monken became associated with the term after he left a receivers-coach job with the Jacksonville Jaguars to be Brandon Weeden‘s coordinator at Oklahoma State in 2011. “It was ‘Air Raid’ as we use our fingers to say [in air quotes],” said Monken, the Browns’ new offensive coordinator. “It was being able to throw to win. That really to me was the Air Raid. It works a lot better if you have good players doing things the right way consistently. It becomes a lot harder at the NFL level because you are going against the best in the world. Windows are tighter. You are under duress a lot more, so you have to be disciplined in terms of what you do on the perimeter.”
…
“You need enough skill players,” he said. “Last year at Tampa, we would have had six guys get to 700-plus yards from scrimmage, if OJ Howard hadn’t gotten hurt. Space players and throw it over the other team’s heads, or throw in intermediate pockets … running the football adds to that.”
Hidden in the middle of that quote Monken says, “Being able to throw to win.” The traditional old-timey football formula is “throw to score, run to win.” You use the passing game to get a lead, and then you use the run to close out the win: move the chains, get first downs, control the clock, etc. “Being able to throw to win” is different. It includes things like throwing on 3rd-&-1 in the 4th quarter with the lead. You can use the throw to close out the game. It’s a different philosophy.
Two Perfect Weekends
Two weeks ago the Ravens went into the bye at 9-3. They had a half-game lead on the rest of the conference: the Dolphins, Jaguars & Chiefs were all 8-3. If those teams all won while the Ravens were on the bye, that would drop the Ravens down to 4th place in the AFC, because those three teams would all have better conference records. The Browns were 7-4: if they won during the Ravens bye week, they would be one game back and the Ravens margin for error would be nil.
Over the next two weekends, the Jags lost to the Bengals, the Chiefs lost to the Packers, the Jags lost again (to the Browns), the Chiefs lost to the Bills, the Dolphins lost to the Titans.
I don’t think I’ve ever seen two weekends worth of results in other games line up so perfectly for the Ravens. They got all the help they needed. Statistically: after Week 12 (before the bye) DVOA estimated Baltimore had a 25% chance at the #1 seed in the AFC. Two weeks later, that’s up to 62%. That’s a huge move (+37%). The Dolphins loss on Monday Night Football alone was worth about +7%. The Ravens now have a DVOA estimation of 70.5% to make the Conference Championship Game, and 49.7% to make the Super Bowl.
Things have set up perfectly for them. As a fatalistic Ravens fan, I can’t help wondering if that means the other shoe is about to drop. But we can appreciate the moment.
By the way, while we’re talking about enjoyable results in other games, the Steelers loss to the Patriots knocked about 25% off their playoff chances. Before that game, they made the playoff in about 53% of DVOA simulations. Now they’re down to 28%. Delicious.
Play of the Game
Of course the real PoG was Tylan Wallace‘s punt return touchdown. But that’s not a play in the passing game. And as always, the play of the game of football is always any variation of the hook & lateral, even if done in a whole ‘nother game and nullified by penalty, as in the Chiefs-Bills game.
But in the Ravens-Rams game, the Play Of The (passing) Game was this, the two-point conversion to Zay Flowers:
Zay Flowers OCTOPUS and the Ravens take a 3 point lead pic.twitter.com/Yc6uFmCvIT
— Barstool Gambling (@stoolgambling) December 10, 2023
Check out Lamar on this play. He maneuvers between pass-rushers and then gets absolutely crushed as he delivers. Here’s another angle (right-hand video):
Ravens rookie WR Zay Flowers has had a couple tough drops today, but man did he ever come up big when the Ravens needed him most.
Flowers catches the go ahead touchdown and the 2 point conversion with under 2 minutes to go.
Flowers has been everything the Ravens hoped for. pic.twitter.com/uVT0G5Zrzn
— Seven Rounds in Heaven (@7RoundsInHeaven) December 10, 2023
Front-side angle:
2 pt play. Lamar dodges one pass rusher and then throws a pinpoint pass into a tiny window while leaving his feet and getting drilled, as one does. pic.twitter.com/AqhajF4bHu
— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) December 11, 2023
Mina Kimes highlighted a still where you can see the ball leaving Lamar’s hand:
lol pic.twitter.com/mdWqIvN3pZ
— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) December 11, 2023
Ouch
Felt like an afterthought bc of the TD throw but holy smokes, what a play
— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) December 11, 2023
Some of Lamar’s pass deliveries this season have been RIDICULOUS. His end-of-the-year sizzle reel of highlight throws will be amazing.
Big Cat Game Theory
Nelson Agholor has touchdowns in three games this season: against the Bengals, against the Lions, and again versus the Bengals in the rematch. This weekend’s opponent is the Jaguars. Kudos to General Manager Eric DeCosta for looking at the schedule and making a timely acquisition. There are only three big-cat teams in the league; DeCosta picked up Agholor for a season when we have games against all three. That’s Executive Of The Year stuff, right there.
I think we all know what’s coming Sunday. Obviously if you can find a sports book offering a prop bet on Agholor scoring vs the Jags, you should jump on it. However, right now it seems the sports books are aware that this Sure Thing could bankrupt them, so none are currently offering it. Happy hunting!
Stats
Another interesting thing with all this passing volume: Lamar had second-highest average depth of target this week at 12.7 yards.
Remember we floated a definition for a “QS,” stealing the concept of a Quality Start in baseball? 7+ yds-per-target on 3+ catches? Looking at this box score, I feel bad about that definition. Agholor catches all five targets with a 4-1 success rate and two first downs, and doesn’t qualify for a QS. Stats are cold, man.
Season Stats
Here are the full-season stats to date:
The Ravens offense is still 7th in points-per-drive and 6th in scoring percentage; they’re 6th in points-per-game. They are now 5th in Red Zone TD pctg; 9th in 3rd-down pctg. DVOA rates them the #5 offense.
Next Up: The Ravens have an opportunity to kick a good team when they’re down. They fly to Jacksonville to face Trevor Lawrence and the Jags, who have lost two straight. Lawrence has been a full participant in practice this week, so he will play. It’s a chance to avenge one of their most infuriating losses from last season, a game in which they had a one-touchdown lead with 20 seconds to play.
8 Responses
OBJ has already admitted he ran the wrong route on the TD. Lamar made great throw to where he was supposed to be which is why players scoff at PFF and amateurs like you. You dont know what every guy is supposed to be doing on a play. You also dont seem to grasp Lamar had the power to audible at the line so you have no idea how many run plays Monken actually called. Which makes your complaints ignorant
Oh and FYI…Jags 4th best run D terrible pass D. Like the Rams. So hopefully Todd sticks with 40+ passes
idiotic take…lamar audibles/checks out of 20% of OC play calls just like every other QB with a leash in the league. delete this.
Flavor of the week. Every week is different and every opponent is different. You don’t prepare the same for every opponent. Our offense is a new and is a work in progress. Todd and company are developing an offense and constantly learning the league.
As far as the passing game. We shouldn’t expect this offense to continue throwing 43 times a game. First our O-line is not a strong pass blocking unit. Second we are trying to have a more balanced offense and it would be a detriment to continually pass that much.
As mentioned the league is a flavor of the week. At the beginning of the season the majority were picking the Chiefs, Eagles and 9er’s. There’s been ups and downs every week. Injuries have been major as teams like the Bengals and Jets have had their hopes crushed by QB injuries. The 9er’s had a bad spell with injuries to top talent mid-season.
Recently we’ve seen the Chiefs, Eagles, and Lions start to sputter. All of a sudden we’re seeing the Cowboys, 9er’s, Ravens, and Dolphins creeping to the top. We have a quarter of the season left and the games are unpredictable. Who knows the outcome? Only time will tell.
Overlooked is the fact that Lamar and the Ravens went three and out in OT and it took a defensive stop and punt return to win the game, not the offense!
The biggest issue I have is lack of complimentary football.
I dont have a issue passing the ball vs the Rams or likely vs the Jags bc the defensive secondary is weak and calls for attacking that part of the team. What I do have a issue with is leaving our defense on the field for 85-90 plays a game. And losing T.O.P. 25 minutes to 35 minutes like last week which is large reason why defense has looked vulnerable bc they aren’t playing 25-26minutes routinely like in GRO offense. Like when it was run, run, run. They are logging more snaps& time on the field bc they are throwing more which isn’t great for having a 14-15ppg defense. You need to keep your defense fresh and only playing 25-27minutes most games.
I agree with complimentary football but what happens when the opponent is controlling your team offensively or defensively. Once Hamilton went out the Rams repeatedly passed on us and we couldn’t get a 3 and out. The offense put up 30 pts. 30 pts would win most games.
I will admit the defense improved in the second half but our offense was fighting to just get back in the game. Sometimes there are situations where you have to change the game plan because of circumstances like an injury to a key player.
In the end it is a TEAM sport. If you have weaknesses your opponent will attempt to take advantage. Our defense had a subpar game and our offense and ST units helped bail us out. A win is a win and let’s move on. Hopefully we learned from this game and improve.
There are some pretty harsh responses to this piece. I thought it was good and offered some food for thought. I would encourage those all-knowing members of the comments section to offer their own article. It’s not right to withhold one’s vast knowledge from other members of the Ravens flock!