RSR’s Dev Panchwagh & Nikhil Mehta are tag-teaming Battle Plans for the 2023 season.
Offense
Pre-Snap to Post-Snap Coverage Movement
Miami defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has a well-documented history with the Baltimore Ravens. As the head coach of the Denver Broncos back in 2021, he kind of showed exactly how he felt about quarterback Lamar Jackson, selling out to blitz and take away the run, only for Jackson to rip up his defense with verticals over the top.
However, that approach was kind of a departure from what Fangio’s defenses normally do. They are not typically selling out as often. It’s more of a bait-and-switch approach, and there is a lot of shifting going on before the snap from the defensive backs.
Fangio will have his safeties show split coverage before the snap, and right after the snap, morph into Cover 1 or Cover 3. They are normally a two high, zone-based scheme, so the window dressing doesn’t change that outcome too dramatically. But those distorted looks force the quarterback into some bad decisions if he isn’t patient enough.
The Dolphins have a good one in Jevon Holland, who might not be available for this game. But even if that’s the case, Fangio will use disguise and keep the coverage looks a mystery.
Jackson will need to be especially pinpoint in deciphering the pre-snap look from Fangio and anticipating these late shifts in coverage. The best way to mitigate some of this is to wait to snap the ball closer to the play clock expiring. Force Miami to tip their hand as much as possible.
Keep Taking the Underneath Free Spaces
Against the Niners, as we alluded to in Battle Plans, it was important to stay on schedule. Make sure the ball is out quick and give Jackson outlets so he’s not needing to hold the ball too long. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken largely did just that, while still letting Jackson do what he does best – extending plays when protection breaks down.
With the on-schedule stuff, Monken peppered the Niners with receiver screens, flat completions and targeted the sidelines. He let receivers Zay Flowers and Isaiah Likely loose and they were both hard to bring down.
Fangio’s defense has the fifth-lowest blitz rate, preferring to get pressure with a four-man rush. He likes to rely on zone variations – whether it’s Cover 6 or cloud or quarters – to force offenses to methodically drive the field and protect his secondary, though he’s been more willing to mix in man coverages with Jalen Ramsey on his team.
Lamar has typically done well against zone coverage, but he’ll need to remain patient, just as he was against the Niners. Take the underneath route completions, take the checkdowns, and rely on the pass catchers to gain yards after contact. Hit the sit down routes when they are there, especially to the tight ends.
Obviously, calculated risks make sense to extend plays, which Jackson is doing at a level seldom seen in this league. But by and large, he needs to take the plays when they are there and force Miami to tackle in space.
Hammer the Lighter Boxes
In tandem with Fangio’s philosophy of playing a lot of shell coverage and relying more on his front to win is that he also doesn’t commit numbers to the run game. He will, on occasion, walk a safety up right before the snap – getting back to his pre-snap shifts. Even in those moments, the movement is usually geared more for disguise purposes, giving the appearance of a loaded box but not exactly selling out.
In relying on his front to win with a lighter box, there should be chances for the Ravens to run the ball against it, especially if they show more spread, even from 21 formations. From 21, you still have Patrick Ricard on the field, but you also have Likely, so you still have blocking muscle and can really threaten the perimeter.
Ultimately, Baltimore has been able to run the ball against any type of front, whether it’s loaded or not. It will be interesting to see if Fangio does go outside of his tendencies, just as he did in 2021 while at Denver. However, if it is more often lighter boxes, not only does Monken need to attack these looks, but Jackson needs to be prepared to make the run checks, keeping backs Gus Edwards and Justice Hill involved.
Defense
Coverage Change-ups vs. Hill
With Jaylen Waddle ruled out for the Dolphins, their passing game is going to be almost completely reliant on Tyreek Hill. He has 1,641 receiving yards on the year, while Waddle just broke 1,000 last week. Next highest? Tight end Durham Smythe at 282.
Hill’s athleticism makes him dangerous, but his glove-like fit in Mike McDaniel’s offense comes from his ability to recognize the leverage and coverage assignments of opposing defenders. He then uses his stop-start speed and agility to attack blind spots in man coverage and soft spots in zone coverage. He has been deadly on some of McDaniel’s signature sprint motions, lining up as an inline TE before motioning out wide as the ball is snapped, letting him build up speed as he crosses the line of scrimmage. That forces many cornerbacks to bail out to protect against the deep ball, allowing Hill to use his cornering ability to stress the middle of the field and get off to the races.
The Ravens did a great job mixing up coverages against Brock Purdy last week, selling man coverage looks pre-snap before flipping into zone post-snap. But every zone has its hole, and Purdy took advantage by hitting George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk for catch-and-runs in the intermediate area of the field just outside the numbers where the Ravens’ Cover 3 looks were most vulnerable. Shanahan used Christian McCaffrey to hold the linebackers inside the numbers so Purdy had clean passing windows.
McDaniel will try to do the same, so the Ravens should move away from Cover 3 and run more Quarters and Cover 6 to Hill’s side of the field to give themselves numbers downfield to cut off Hill’s escape routes and prevent him from being one-on-one in the open field.
Opponent coverage rate ranks
BAL:
Cover 1 – 5th (28%)
2 man – 27th (0.4%)MIA:
Cover 1 – 31st (16%)
2 man – 1st (5%)NFL avg:
Cover 1 – 22%
2 man – 2%A lot of factors determine these numbers but I think this is a good/simple illustration of QB gravity v. WR gravity.
— Steven Ruiz (@theStevenRuiz) December 28, 2023
The Dolphins’ electric WR duo has also drawn a lot of Cover 2 Man from opponents this year, something the Ravens have run only a handful of times this year. Waddle’s absence means that the Ravens won’t have to shift their philosophy too hard, but it does allow them to run a modified Cover 2 Man in which the deep safety on Hill’s side of the field is responsible for bracketing him rather than covering his whole zone.
That would be another instance of a Belichickian strategy from the Ravens this year: taking away the other team’s best player and making their less talented players beat you.
McDaniel will still find a way to get the ball in Hill’s hands on manufactured touches, but ‘Reek is at his best when he’s out of traffic and behind the defense with only a few defenders to beat. There’s no way to slow him down physically, but the Ravens can disrupt Hill’s rhythm and flow with Tua by forcing them to parse through disguised coverages and find different throwing windows than what they were expecting pre-snap.
Interior Pressure and Outside Hots
Using disguised coverages and pre- and post-snap rotations fits especially well with Tua’s tendency to throw to a spot rather than a receiver, something the Ravens keyed on against Purdy. Shanahan and McDaniel prefer their QBs to do as much of their processing before the snap as possible. They make their adjustments and mentally prioritize their potential targets and throwing windows, but a different post-snap look forces them to redo those calculations and choose a new spot to throw to on the fly. The Ravens encourage that, funneling the ball into areas of the field where they can defend most effectively. By knowing where the ball was going, rather than to whom, Baltimore’s defenders were able to disrupt passes and force turnovers.
Tua’s trust in Hill has been well-documented on Hard Knocks this year, as has his quick processing and release under pressure. He’ll be ready for the Ravens to send rushers off the edge like they did against Purdy, so Macdonald should throw a change-up with more aggressive interior blitzes from his linebackers to get pressure right in Tua’s face.
Tua already has the lowest time to throw in the NFL by a wide margin because of that trust in his scheme and playmakers. The Ravens should take advantage of that trust by speeding up Tua even more. He handles edge pressure fairly well, but tends to ditch the ball against interior rushers coming after him so he can absorb the contact without being exposed to potential injury, especially against a Ravens defense that has beaten up opposing QBs all year.
Tua has a tendency to put a little more air under the ball when he’s throwing under pressure, a ripe opportunity for Baltimore’s ballhawks to get their hands on the football like they did against the 49ers. The Ravens’ secondary has to be ready to drive to the football and wrap up, especially against Miami’s speedy RBs who can take a checkdown to the house.
This is a huge chance for Justin Madubuike to restart his sack streak and continue to fill up his future bank account, but Travis Jones seems primed for a late-season surge as well. The second-year behemoth has logged 12 pressures over his last four games in just 76 pass-rushing snaps, and it’s clear his confidence is growing. Whether he’s throwing around his mass to free up his teammates’ rushing lanes, or winning one-on-one reps with his explosiveness and power, Jones could be the catalyst of the Ravens’ plan to disrupt Tua on Sunday.
Hold. The. Edge.
There’s no sugarcoating it: the Ravens run defense has been slipping. After giving up more than 100 yards on the ground just twice in their first seven games, Baltimore has allowed more than 120 rushing yards five times in the last eight games. They were gashed to the weak side against the 49ers, with McCaffrey running behind Trent Williams and Kyle Juszczyk for more than seven yards per carry.
Dolphins LT Terron Armstead and FB Alec Ingold are Mike McDaniel’s version of that combination, and the Ravens simply cannot let them pave a path for speedster RBs De’Von Achane or Raheem Mostert to reach the open field.
That’s going to require some exceptional edge-setting from a Ravens defense that could be without Kyle Hamilton, their best screen/sweep/outside zone defender. Seeing more Tavius Robinson on early downs could be a way to harness his length and physicality without asking him to do too much on later downs where McDaniel can really open up his playbook.
Macdonald can coordinate his rush and pass defense accordingly, having his edge defenders prioritize contain run defense instead of pinning their ears back and attacking Tua. That also sets up some simulated pressure designs with Kyle Van Noy or Malik Harrison backing off the LOS post-snap as Patrick Queen and Roquan Smith run the A gap.
Matchup: Tyler Linderbaum vs. Christian Wilkins
It took Tyler Linderbaum fewer than two full seasons to prove to any and all naysayers that he was absolutely worth a first-round pick in 2022. He hasn’t allowed a single sack this season, while blocking dominantly in the run game all year despite a string of tough matchups.
He’s got another one this week against Christian Wilkins, the former Clemson first-round pick who has taken some significant steps in his pass-rushing ability this season. His 8.0 sacks are a career high, and his 52 pressures rank eighth among interior defenders this season. (Teammate and ex-Ravens 7th-rounder Zach Sieler ranks 10th with 49 pressures!)
Wilkins doesn’t have the best pass rush efficiency metrics, with a pass-rush win rate below 10%. He impacts games with volume, wearing down opposing centers by going hard on every snap, all four quarters. It will be a war of attrition in the trenches, and Linderbaum doesn’t have the same breaks that the Ravens’ OTs have had lately with their rotations.
Linderbaum can turn the tables on the matchup by stressing Wilkins laterally in the run game. The second-year center is so quick and nimble that he can cut off and seal opposing DTs with ease. If he can win one-on-one reps vs. Wilkins in the run game, the Ravens will be able to have blocking numbers moving forward to destroy the Dolphins’ light boxes.
All advanced stats courtesy of Pro Football Focus, Sumer Sports and Arjun Menon.
