Welcome back to The 14, a series centered around the Baltimore Ravens’ 14th overall selection in the 2022 NFL Draft. With just 10 days until the first round kicks off, I want to home in on my final strategies and approaches to the 14th overall pick, starting with the opportunity to trade up.
When I introduced this series, I noted the specific opportunity of the 14th overall pick as a chance for the Ravens to draft a potential superstar in the middle of a Super Bowl window, an opportunity that few teams have.
But as draft season has progressed, it has become strikingly clear that the high-end, immediate impact player the Ravens are seeking will likely be off the board by the time Baltimore is on the clock.
According to multiple models, betting markets and consensus big boards, the top four edge rushers (Aidan Hutchinson, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Travon Walker, Jermaine Johnson), top three offensive tackles (Ikem Ekwonu, Evan Neal, Charles Cross) and top two cornerbacks (Derek Stingley Jr. and Ahmad Gardner) will all be gone by pick no. 14. Several viable options – including Jordan Davis, Drake London, Devin Lloyd, Trent McDuffie and Andrew Booth Jr. – will still be available, but it still feels like the Ravens are just out of range of the right pick for them, making trading a worthy consideration. I’d first like to explore the idea of trading up from the 14th overall pick to land a true top-10 superstar.
But to do so, the Ravens would have to sacrifice additional draft capital, which seems to fly in the face of general manager Eric DeCosta’s stated draft philosophy.
Ravens GM Eric DeCosta talking to former Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff on FA, comp picks and draft philosophy.
We get a great mention of what DeCosta learned from the seminal "Loser's Curse" paper from @bcmassey & @R_Thaler pic.twitter.com/Kzl1W0fitr
— Kevin Cole (@KevinColePFF) April 14, 2022
I’ll explain why trading back could be Baltimore’s best option later this week – and the “Loser’s Curse” will be well-represented – but I think 2022 might be a perfect storm for the Ravens to break bad and trade up, even into the top 10.
In the past, trading up from the mid-to-late 20s into the top 10 was prohibitively expensive, almost forcing the team to wait and see who would fall to them, but this year is different. Not only is it significantly easier to trade into the top 10 from the 14th pick, Baltimore also has the excess draft capital to move up, including two picks in the third round and four in the fourth. Trading into the top five is still far too costly for any position other than quarterback, but the Ravens have the ammo to move up as high as the sixth overall pick.
But giving up multiple picks to trade up means that the Ravens must have a specific target in mind who fits all of the following criteria:
- Year 1 starter
- Elite future upside
- Position of major need in Baltimore
- High-impact in passing game
Surprisingly, while I love several players in this draft, I only think a few in the top 10 meet those criteria for the Ravens: Oregon defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux and LSU cornerback Derek Stingley Jr.
Catch a Falling Superstar
Thibodeaux’s fall from potential consensus no. 1 overall pick has been perplexing, to say the least, but I see it as an opportunity to land arguably the best player in the draft. It’s no guarantee that he falls out of the top five, but if he does, Baltimore should seriously consider trading up for the elite edge rusher, who comes in at number two on my Ravens-centric big board.
I like Thibodeaux just as much as Hutchinson; in fact, the Oregon product might be a better fit for the Ravens if not for Hutchinson’s Michigan connection to new defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald.
But while Hutchinson has no shot of falling out of the top five, Thibodeaux could actually be available at six or seven. In that case, the Ravens should consider a trade up for the insane upside that Thibodeaux offers.
He’s a true three-down player who can play OLB in the Ravens’ 3-4 scheme and wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks from the edge as a pass rusher. He has an explosive first step and the ideal frame for his position, and he knows how to use his considerable athletic gifts to maximum effect. While he’s still refining his pass rush moves and plan, he already demonstrates a keen understanding of how to counter opposing blockers and use his athleticism to get to the quarterback. He also plays like a Raven with his high effort and motor against the run, and even showed above-average fluidity in his few coverage snaps in college. That all makes him one of the best players in this draft, and the idea that the Ravens could be within striking distance of him is a small miracle.
To make that miracle happen, however, the Ravens will have to be willing to give up some draft picks. Luckily, the owners of the sixth and seventh picks – the Carolina Panthers and the New York Giants, respectively – appear willing to deal.
Here are several deals that could get the job done, based on the Jimmy Johnson Draft Pick Value Chart that many teams use to help them value draft picks:
(Note: A positive JJ Value figure means the Ravens are receiving excess value in the trade, while a negative number indicates lost value. For future picks, I used the value of the last pick of the same round in this year’s draft. I also included 2023 draft picks wherever possible, as I would rather give up 2023 draft capital than picks in this year’s draft. The 2022 draft class has absurd quality and depth, especially on Day 2, though other teams may take that calculus into account as well.)
Panthers, 6th Overall Pick
After the sixth overall selection, the Panthers aren’t on the clock until pick no. 137, so they need to add some Day 2 picks in this deep draft. These are all very reasonable offers, with plenty of additional options for late-round pick swaps to get the desired value for either side. The Ravens could even toss an extra player with a minimal dead cap hit – such as Ben Powers, Josh Oliver or even Jaylon Ferguson – as a sweetener if needed. I’m not familiar enough with the Panthers’ roster to know who they might throw in, but Chuba Hubbard might be useful running back depth, and I would love to see the Ravens add another Day 3 pick whether it be in 2022 or a future draft.
If the Panthers don’t want to make a deal – and don’t take Thibodeaux themselves – the Ravens could then call up the Giants to inquire about their first-round pick. Here are some deals that may work:
Giants, 7th Overall Pick
The Giants already have the fifth overall pick, so they might be willing to move down from the seventh pick and add some extra Day 2 capital. Again, other picks can be swapped in these deals to make the math work for both sides, with the same potential add-ins from Baltimore. The Giants don’t have any attractive sweeteners outside of players that arrived in New York this offseason, but a 2022 or future Day 3 pick might be available.
I would be more than happy to make any of these deals to snag Thibodeaux. It locks down a starting edge defender to pair with Odafe Oweh for the foreseeable future, giving the Ravens a high-octane edge rushing duo of their own in the competitive AFC. It would also help make up for the absence of Tyus Bowser in the short-term and free him up to be a versatile star linebacker once he does return from his Achilles injury. The connections with the Ravens are there, too; the team reportedly had dinner with Thibodeaux after Oregon’s pro day and he clearly has Ray Lewis’ stamp of approval.
"I felt like I had seen a father."
Kayvon Thibodeaux says meeting Ray Lewis was "surreal"@kayvont | @raylewis pic.twitter.com/tYRheveEpV
— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) February 11, 2022
The only remaining question is if Thibodeaux will even be available at the sixth or seventh pick. The betting markets set the line for his selection at 5.5, while Grinding the Mocks and most big boards still have him in the top five. ESPN sees his most likely draft spots as the fourth or fifth picks, with just a 30% chance he’s available at six and a 20% chance he’s available at seven. But a lot of expert mock drafts see Thibodeaux falling out of the top five, so the Ravens should be ready to pull the trigger if he’s within striking distance.
Bringing an Island to Baltimore
While trading up for Thibodeaux would be swooping in on a falling prospect, the Ravens’ next trade-up opportunity would seek to grab a player who is already ranked below his actual talent.
That would be LSU cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., my CB1 in the 2022 draft class, who fits the Ravens’ preferred archetype at the position perfectly.
[Ravens Draft Central Prospect Profile: Derek Stingley Jr.]
He projects as an ‘island’ cornerback who can be left alone in one-on-one matchups with the best opposing receivers, something that is especially valuable in Baltimore with biannual matchups with Ja’Marr Chase. His blend of elite instincts, frame, athleticism and ball skills are unparalleled among not only this year’s cornerback draft class, but in the last 10 years of prospects at his position. He’s the best cornerback to enter the NFL Draft since another former LSU Tiger, Patrick Peterson, who went fifth overall to the Arizona Cardinals in 2011.
With the skyrocketing value of wide receivers and the cornerbacks who shadow them, Stingley shouldn’t be available past the seventh overall pick, but ESPN gives him a better-than 90% chance of making it all the way to picks nine or 10. Furthermore, his Expected Draft Position (EDP) from Grinding the Mocks is 10.7 and the Vegas line on his selection is 11.5.
I smell an opportunity there, a chance to grab the fifth overall player on my Ravens-centric big board with one of the last two picks in the top 10. Those picks are owned by the Seattle Seahawks and the New York Jets, two teams who have demonstrated a willingness to trade draft picks in the past few seasons.
Let’s take a look at some potential deals:
Seahawks, 9th Overall Pick
The Seahawks only have one pick between picks 75 and 150, so they may be interested in adding a few picks in the third or fourth rounds. They would probably prefer the first two deals to maximize the value and depth of the 2022 draft class, but all five present reasonable JJ value. As with the previous deals, there’s room for sweeteners from Baltimore or late-round pick swaps in 2022 or future drafts to get a deal done, though I don’t see any intriguing players to acquire from Seattle.
If the Seahawks don’t want to deal, the Ravens could then turn to the Jets, but they may be a tougher sell, as they have plenty of draft capital already. New York has five selections in the first 70 picks as well as two picks in the fourth round, so they might not be as incentivized to move down from 10 for more Day 2 and 3 picks. Here are some deals that could work:
Jets, 10th Overall Pick
If the Jets are willing to make a deal, any of these trades could be a starting framework with different adjustments made as needed. The Ravens would still have plenty of picks in the second, third and fourth rounds, but they would also secure the best cornerback in the entire draft, addressing one of their biggest needs at a position whose value will continue to skyrocket. Imagine a secondary with Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters and Derek Stingley locking down opposing wideouts while Marcus Williams patrols centerfield and Chuck Clark and Brandon Stephens can be deployed as matchup weapons or zone playmakers. In short, any of these deals to acquire Stingley would be well worth it.
Out of the Top 10
I would only trade into the top 10 for Thibodeaux or Stingley. That instant impact and elite upside at a premium position – on an inexpensive rookie deal with a fifth-year option, nonetheless – is exactly what the Ravens are looking for in this draft, and it’s also exactly the kind of talent that won’t be available at 14.
While I still would love the rest of my top 10 players if they fell to the 14th overall pick, none of them fulfill all four of the criteria that I outlined at the beginning of this piece, making it hard to give up extra draft capital to move up.
One final note on trading up: I’ve consistently mentioned sweeteners and additional late-round pick swaps as potential parts of these deals because I would be willing to go the extra mile to secure either Stingley or Thibodeaux. I wouldn’t accept any trades with lopsided JJ values, but I wouldn’t hesitate to throw in a depth player or an extra late-round pick to bring an elite defender to Baltimore.
Later this week, I’ll be back with a few trades that may be an answer to a nightmare draft board at the 14th overall. The Ravens could jump up a pick or two to secure a different high-impact defender, or they could again bet on the quality and depth of the 2022 draft class by trading back.
